Nationals new 1B discussion

[PANatsFan]

The only question was, who was better.

Answer the question.

It's not the question and I never made a statement. I think by the end of the offseason  the Nats will have a better team, but I'll have to revisit this in February. Besides, you'll draw some other conclusion from what I say anyway.

[Tyler Durden]

Linty I think you're overrating the O's players by a good amount.  Luke Scott is probably the DH, also.  Not the LF.  Anyway he's about comparable to Morse, not Bernadina.

1B is probably a wash.  Lee, honestly, is about as likely to continue his decline as he is to bounce back.  He's 35.  He's a better defender and better clubhouse guy, though.

I'd take our MI over theirs.  I suspect they'd trade Roberts and Hardy for Desmond and Espinosa, as well.

Zimmerman is miles and miles better than Reynolds.

Catcher, I guess I'd give Weiters the edge, but if he has one more shaky season, it would be difficult to argue he's any better than Ramos.

Adam Jones is almost as much a question mark as Nyjer.

[hammondsnats]

The only question was, who was better.

Answer the question.

Cue the jeopardy music.

Tick tock tick tock.

[Lintyfresh85]

It's not the question and I never made a statement. I think by the end of the offseason  the Nats will have a better team, but I'll have to revisit this in February. Besides, you'll draw some other conclusion from what I say anyway.

You make declarative statements all the time... and then, when someone interprets it, you say we misunderstood you, and did so on purpose.

The whole question was simply, what team is better.

The O's are, by far.

[Evolution33]

The big problem with the Orioles is every players ceiling is serviceable major leaguer. They have no stars. The Nationals have to 4+ WAR players in Werth and Zimmerman. If every other player in the Nationals line-up can be average then they have a good line-up. The Orioles have no shot at that.

I think half the reason some people are picking the Orioles to be better than the Nationals is because they aren't the Nationals. Their rotation has a chance to be good with Matusz, Tillman, and Arietta. But Tillman and Arietta sucked at the major league level last season. They could end up being worse than Jason Marquis or Livan Hernandez. Potential is potential until it is production. We know what to expect from Livan and Marquis which isn't anything special, but people don't know what to expect from potential so they tend to overvalue it.

Nyjer's leash won't be very long this season and in reality the only thing Jones has over Ankiel is age. Neither of them get on base enough and hit with decent power. Felix Pie and Bernadina might as well be the same person. A jack of all trades player that excells at nothing. Weiters and Ramos are probably more comparable than people think. Ramos is unproven so I won't even talk about the type of major leaguer he is, but he will probably have a lower OBP but higher SLG than Weiters and play comparable defense. SS is a toss for me. Third is an easy win for the Nationals. Markakis is a good right fielder, but Werth is better. And Michael Morse actually might be able to put up the same type of production as Derrek Lee, but I would rather have LaRoche than either of them.

If Nyjer can rebound in any way at all then the Nationals have a chance to have a superior defense to the Orioles. The bullpen shouldn't even be a question.

And I don't even see why the Orioles are being compared to the Nationals. I don't buy the hype people are trying to give them as this years Padres for one second. That doesn't mean I think the Nationals will have a great season. The Nationals are simply better than some people think, and by those some people I mean the ones that think they will lose 100. With the roster the way it is right now I expect 67-72 wins. The Nationals haven't gone forward much, but haven't gone backwards either. 

[Lintyfresh85]

Linty I think you're overrating the O's players by a good amount.  Luke Scott is probably the DH, also.  Not the LF.  Anyway he's about comparable to Morse, not Bernadina.

1B is probably a wash.  Lee, honestly, is about as likely to continue his decline as he is to bounce back.  He's 35.  He's a better defender and better clubhouse guy, though.

I'd take our MI over theirs.  I suspect they'd trade Roberts and Hardy for Desmond and Espinosa, as well.

Adam Jones is almost as much a question mark as Nyjer.

All of these statements read as someone looking at the situation through Nats colored glasses (whatever color that would be).

If you brought in an unbiased observer into the equation... I'm confident most, if not all, would agree the O's outclass the Nats roster by a large margin.

[PANatsFan]

All of these statements read as someone looking at the situation through Nats colored glasses (whatever color that would be).

If you brought in an unbiased observer into the equation... I'm confident most, if not all, would agree the O's outclass the Nats roster by a large margin.

doo-doo brown. The Nats new team color.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

You're the only one.

No he's not.

Lee was a pile of suck-ass last year, and there's no guarantee he won't be again.

[Lintyfresh85]

No he's not.

Lee was a pile of suck-ass last year, and there's no guarantee he won't be again.

That's the point... Lee was freaking terrible last year.... and his OPS still nearly equaled LaRoche (.774 to .788)

[HalfSmokes]

That's the point... Lee was freaking terrible last year.... and his OPS still nearly equaled LaRoche (.774 to .788)

then why did the O's try to get LaRoche on a two year deal before settling for Lee? If Lee was better, wouldn't he have a multiyear deal?

[PatsNats28]

then why did the O's try to get LaRoche on a two year deal before settling for Lee? If Lee was better, wouldn't he have a multiyear deal?

he's older

[Tyler Durden]

LaRoche had a down season as well.  And he's not 35.

Brian Roberts is 33 years old next year and played 59 games in 2010.  He may be healthy, he may get hurt again.  2B in general don't play well into their 30's.  2B coming back from injury, without looking at the history of it, probably less so.

JJ Hardy has been given away by his last 2 teams.  I'm confident that Desmond will play better than Hardy.

Adam Jones severely regressed last year.  Just like Morgan.  I'd trade Morgan for Adam Jones, but I honestly don't know if Jones would be any better in CF than Roger Bernadina.

Luke Scott is a DH.  If they play him LF, he'll be terrible there.

[Lintyfresh85]

Because he's 35.

Why would anyone give an older player a long term deal?

[Lintyfresh85]

Luke Scott is a DH.  If they play him LF, he'll be terrible there.

Career 7.5 UZR in LF, 5.9 UZR/150

[Evolution33]

That's the point... Lee was freaking terrible last year.... and his OPS still nearly equaled LaRoche (.774 to .788)

LaRoche has been the better defender the last two years, and that small difference in OPS can be made up for by better defense. This isn't like comparing Adam Dunn to someone. The Nationals would need the Green Lantern on defense to make up for Dunn's offense with defense.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

That's the point... Lee was freaking terrible last year.... and his OPS still nearly equaled LaRoche (.774 to .788)

Ah, you're right.  I had forgotten Lee bounced back with the Braves.

Although I wouldn't use OPS to compare the two, the important metrics/rating systems show that they're roughly the same.

[HalfSmokes]

Because he's 35.

Why would anyone give an older player a long term deal?

but everyone would take him over LaRoche? even the team that ended up signing him wanted LaRoche, but didn't want to offer the years

[Lintyfresh85]

LaRoche has been the better defender the last two years, and that small difference in OPS can be made up for by better defense. This isn't like comparing Adam Dunn to someone. The Nationals would need the Green Lantern on defense to make up for Dunn's offense with defense.

Wait... you mean, defense isn't going to make up for Dunn's loss? Ladson and Rizzo lied to me!

[Evolution33]

Career 7.5 UZR in LF, 5.9 UZR/150

How many games? Normally a three year sampling is required to make UZR accurate. I doubt it is that much and at that point I trust scout's eyeballs over UZR.

[Tyler Durden]

Career 7.5 UZR in LF, 5.9 UZR/150

Then why don't the O's play him there instead of Felix Pie?  If he was good in LF, they could play him there and then get another big bat for DH.

They don't play him there because he can't.  He may have been able to as a younger player - sure. 

[HalfSmokes]

Career 7.5 UZR in LF, 5.9 UZR/150

he;s their DH, he started 13 games in the outfield last year, less than at 1b

[Evolution33]

Wait... you mean, defense isn't going to make up for Dunn's loss? Ladson and Rizzo lied to me!

I can't read Rizzo's mind, but I am willing to bet he expects the lose in Dunn and Willingham's offense to come from a combo of players, there is really no gurantee that will happen, but that is what he is planning for 2011 anyway. Or he might not be planning for that at all and 2011 is about surviving until 2012 and finding out the answers to the many questions the Nationals have and waiting for Strasburg to get healthy and Harper to arrive.

[Lintyfresh85]

Then why don't the O's play him there instead of Felix Pie?  If he was good in LF, they could play him there and then get another big bat for DH.

They don't play him there because he can't.  He may have been able to as a younger player - sure.  

LF UZR stats

2008 UZR - 5.7
2009 UZR - -1.3
2010 UZR - -0.9

Yeah... he sure sucks.

[HalfSmokes]

LF UZR stats

2008 UZR - 5.7
2009 UZR - -1.3
2010 UZR - -0.9

Yeah... he sure sucks.

since when is 40 games (2009 + 2010 in LF) enough of a sample size for UZR?

[Lintyfresh85]

I can't read Rizzo's mind, but I am willing to bet he expects the lose in Dunn and Willingham's offense to come from a combo of players, there is really no gurantee that will happen, but that is what he is planning for 2011 anyway. Or he might not be planning for that at all and 2011 is about surviving until 2012 and finding out the answers to the many questions the Nationals have and waiting for Strasburg to get healthy and Harper to arrive.

He's pretty stupid if he thinks he can make up 54 HR/159 rbi/139 runs with the rag tag bunch of scrubs we're running out there this year.

I don't care how much Desmond/Espinosa/Bernadina/Morse/Ramos etc. etc. improve, they're not going to equal those numbers... not to mention the fact that they actually have to put up the numbers they did last year, as well as put up the extra numbers Dunn and Hammer put up in 2010.