8 runs ~ 1 win. You can say Hudson offensively is worth about .5 to 1.0 extra wins over Guz. that's consistent with what I think most of the stat head stuff says. CHONE has about a 4 run difference (.5 wins) (18 v 22), the Fans at Fangraphs have a whopping 15 run difference (10 v 25). I've said that the fans are low balling their expectations for Guzman, so treat that as closer to 7 or 8 runs using the CHONE estimate for Guz. Congrats, Dunnkey, you proved the point for the geeks.