O-Dog (Orlando Hudson)

[Lintyfresh85]

8 or 9 times more a year, he'll be on base before Dunn or Zimm. Period.

Take last year's OBP and put them both to 600 at bats and Hudson is on base 30 more times than Guzman.

[ronnynat]

I think Guzman will have an OBP around .350 this season. Hopefully he can play average defense.

[The Chief]

I count about 20 more times over 600 PA.

It would actually be 30 more times over 600 PA, but you can't assume Zimmerman is going to do anything with him every time.  His career .277 with men on was actually the best out of my 4 options for this exercise.  His career with RISP, and '09 with men on or RISP were all lower.

So within the bounds of this time-killing math exercise, Zimmerman advances Hudson ~8 extra times over the course of a full season.  I'm far too lazy to break down those 8 times by Zimmerman's stats but suffice it to say that most of the time, Zimmerman's hit alone isn't going to score Hudson.  Bringing Dunn into the equation lowers the mathematical odds of Hudson's OBP providing extra runs even further, to the point where we might as well be talking about what ELSE Hudson brings to the team.

All of the times that Hudson gets on base and no one drives him in ultimately do not matter.  Well, at least not in a strictly observable sense.  This is where we get into wearing out the pitcher, etc.

I think this whole discussion has run it's course.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I think Guzman will have an OBP around .350 this season. Hopefully he can play average defense.

No way.  Forget avatar/username bets - I would bet my LIFE that Guzman won't get to .350 over the season.

It would actually be 30 more times over 600 PA, but you can't assume Zimmerman is going to do anything with him every time.  His career .277 with men on was actually the best out of my 4 options for this exercise.  His career with RISP, and '09 with men on or RISP were all lower.

So within the bounds of this time-killing math exercise, Zimmerman advances Hudson ~8 extra times over the course of a full season.  I'm far too lazy to break down those 8 times by Zimmerman's stats but suffice it to say that most of the time, Zimmerman's hit alone isn't going to score Hudson.  Bringing Dunn into the equation lowers the mathematical odds of Hudson's OBP providing extra runs even further, to the point where we might as well be talking about what ELSE Hudson brings to the team.

All of the times that Hudson gets on base and no one drives him in ultimately do not matter.

Is your 8 times figure based on his average?  If so, you're not counting all the times that Zimmerman walks and gives Dunn a shot at knocking him in.

[The Chief]

No way.  Forget avatar/username bets - I would bet my LIFE that Guzman won't get to .350 over the season.Is your 8 times figure based on his average?  If so, you're not counting all the times that Zimmerman walks and gives Dunn a shot at knocking him in.

I don't have THAT much time on my hands.  Suffice it to say that I think expecting Hudson's OBP alone to provide more than Guzman + 10 runs over the course of a season strains mathematical probability.  Theoretically you could argue that Hudson could provide infinitely more runs, but we've got to call this quits at some point

[KnorrForYourMoney]

It is a fact in my mind that Hudson will score 24894798734438 more runs than Guzman next year.  That settles it - the Nats must sign him.

[PANatsFan]

A nice way of saying I dropped like a factor of five, from PA/game.

Should have done better dimensional analysis

Take last year's OBP and put them both to 600 at bats and Hudson is on base 30 more times than Guzman.

Yeah I suck.

[The Chief]

It is a fact in my mind that Hudson will score 24894798734438 more runs than Guzman next year.  That settles it - the Nats must sign him.

The funny thing about these debates is that nobody can ever really be proven absolutely right or wrong unless you have access to parallel universes with the exact same test conditions and the only difference is the one player.

<<< nerd.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

The funny thing about these debates is that nobody can ever really be proven absolutely right or wrong unless you have access to parallel universes with the exact same test conditions and the only difference is the one player.

<<< nerd.

I was telling a friend of mine about parallel universes the other day, so I'm right there with ya.

[The Chief]

Parallel Guzman pwnz Parallel Hudson

Parallel D-Crab still sucks.

[I can Throw]

When does math class end?

[Dave B]

Well that's a convenient way of entirely dismissing the point.

Runs are all that ultimately matter.  Just sayin'.

And don't give me those excuses.  Look at Hudson's first half and second half last year.  You seriously going to tell me those splits are all his teammates' fault?

how about wins are all that matter so lets get rid of dunn and zimmerman and get the 3b and 1b from a team that had more wins than the nats?

[PANatsFan]

how about wins are all that matter so lets get rid of dunn and zimmerman and get the 3b and 1b from a team that had more wins than the nats?

Oh man if we get Murphy from the Mets I'll jump into the Anacostia River.

[The Chief]

how about wins are all that matter so lets get rid of dunn and zimmerman and get the 3b and 1b from a team that had more wins than the nats?

Sorry Dave, you're extremely late to the party.  I heard the Lerners are being cheap if you want to harp on that some more though.  I never get tired of hearing about how cheap those guys are, or about the time they pooped in your corn flakes.

[Dave B]

To put my own spin on PA's math:

Hudson '09 OBP - .357
Guz - .306

For the sake of simplicity let's just say .350 vs .300.  That's one baserunner every 20 plate appearances.  When put against Zimmerman's career BA of .277 with men on, that's about 8 extra runners advanced over the course of a 600-PA season.  There is no guarantee that any of those runners will necessarily score, but 8 is essentially the top end.  I'm not really going to consider Dunn following Zimmerman seeing as Zimm is the king of the DP and will likely clear the bases enough times to more or less negate any followup chances Dunn has to advance Hudson after Zimmerman outs himself.

Again, I freely admit that OBP is only one aspect of Hudson's "superior" offensive value, but I feel obligated to point out that by itself, it's really nothing to crow about.

Aspects like seeing more pitches or giving more chances for Morgan to still were exactly the more grounded specifics I wanted to hear about.

the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is one hit per week. all these little things add up over 162 games. even the crapbag nats won 59 games which is like going 6-10 in the NFL which is not good in the NFL but also not terrible like the same winning percentage in baseball. there is a relatively small winning % spread between sucking in baseball and being awesome. so all that crap adds up.  the lerners probably sit there and say "I'm going to pay HOW MUCH MORE for one more hit per week?"

[Dave B]

Sorry Dave, you're extremely late to the party.  I heard the Lerners are being cheap if you want to harp on that some more though.  I never get tired of hearing about how cheap those guys are, or about the time they pooped in your corn flakes.

you guys move too fast around here

[The Chief]

lol like I said, we've pretty much covered all of this and run it into the ground.  Nobody's denying that Hudson is an overall worthwhile improvement that I'm aware of.  I was just dissecting singular talking points largely for my own amusement while I avoid doing real work.

you guys move too fast around here

We have to keep up with all the alternate universes.

[sportsfan882]

I can't wait to hear what Chief and PA say if/when Hudson signs elsewhere because of a million or two extra that the Lerners won't ante up. 

[The Chief]

I can't wait to hear what Chief and PA say if/when Hudson signs elsewhere because of a million or two extra that the Lerners won't ante up. 

My head will asplode and I'll admit that the Lerners killed JFK.  Would that make you happy?

[Dave B]

can we please just get felipe lopez. the guy has ops'd like .850 since he left here (.810 last year). 0.035 more than hudson. if hudson is a step above guz than flop ins a half step above him.

we got rid of manny. maybe he'll come back

[PANatsFan]

can we please just get felipe lopez. the guy has ops'd like .850 since he left here (.810 last year). 0.035 more than hudson. if hudson is a step above guz than flop ins a half step above him.

we got rid of manny. maybe he'll come back

I'm starting to feel that way. His defense was superb last year too.

[sportsfan882]

can we please just get felipe lopez. the guy has ops'd like .850 since he left here (.810 last year). 0.035 more than hudson. if hudson is a step above guz than flop ins a half step above him.

we got rid of manny. maybe he'll come back

I'm starting to feel that way. His defense was superb last year too.

no way

My head will asplode and I'll admit that the Lerners killed JFK.  Would that make you happy?

That should suffice.

[Dave B]

I'm starting to feel that way. His defense was superb last year too.

just be like "dude, we're a totally different team. you might have noticed our new front office and everything. didnt you see the pick of the five dudes from the caps game? you probably dont recognize them. hell we dont recognize them.  we got these blue jerseys now. we are primed for success". that is the truth, right?

[PANatsFan]

When you google image search "LANC" it finds a topless woman labeled LANC.jpg. I think you lose.

[The Chief]

Somebody's been Googling with safesearch off