O-Dog (Orlando Hudson)

[UMDNats]

Somehow I knew you'd say that.

What reason would they have to lie about something like that?

To be sneaky.

[The Chief]

Embarrassment for actually trying to pick up a player like Guzman. 

So basically you're admitting that they probably didn't put in a claim

To be sneaky.

In their position it would have been impossible to hide a waiver claim from other teams, and the denial was published after it was too late to make a claim anyway.  In short: lolwut?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

:JCA Batsignal:

Gee, a fellow decides to concentrate on his work for a few hours and he misses his bat signal.  With these two, it basically all boils down to who gets on more, and Hudson is likely to do that.  Also, I think Hudson will see more pitches than guz, so, as Blue says, that will give Nyjer more chances to steal (when it makes sense) and will wear pitchers down more if he bats second.    Not denigrating Guz's offense contribution (he says for about the 3d time in 24 hours), but I hope he can use his hacktastic approach around #6 or #7 in the order, with Ducks on The Pond, and drive them in before the goosepoo hardens.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Not true.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/08/sox_eye_nats_sh.html

They had their eye on the man who looks like a Seabass, Alex Gonzalez, who they eventually acquired.  with several options going through trad waivers in August, they could sit back and see who got through rather than eat the whole contract, like Ken Williiams did with Alex Rios.

[Lintyfresh85]

Yep. For his career Hudson averages 3.8 pitches an at bat. Guzman is at 3.32.

So, you give them both 600 at bats and you get the following.

Hudson - 600 AB - 2,280 pitches seen
Guzman - 600 AB - 1,992 pitches seen

Hudson sees about 288 more pitches a year than Guzman. A.) Helps tire out the pitching staff, B.) Gives Morgan time to figure out the pitcher and time his jump.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

If you have a player with a .310 OBP (Guzman) and a player with a .345 OBP (Hudson) and you put them in the same spot in the same line-up, nine times out of ten, the player with the .345 OBP will cause the team to score more runs.  In fact, probably 8 times out of 10, they'll actually score more runs.  Wouldn't you want Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn to come up to the plate with someone on base more often?  If you think Guzman is equal to Hudson offensively, you're admitting that this is not preferable to you.

[PANatsFan]

If you have a player with a .310 OBP (Guzman) and a player with a .345 OBP (Hudson) and you put them in the same spot in the same line-up, nine times out of ten, the player with the .345 OBP will cause the team to score more runs.  In fact, probably 8 times out of 10, they'll actually score more runs.  Wouldn't you want Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn to come up to the plate with someone on base more often?  If you think Guzman is equal to Hudson offensively, you're admitting that this is not preferable to you.

This is silliness, right here.

.03 higher in OBP? He'll get on base 3/100 PA more than Guzman. Once in 20 games? Your 8 and 9 out of ten are flat out wrong. 8 or 9 more times in a SEASON.

[PANatsFan]

Yep. For his career Hudson averages 3.8 pitches an at bat. Guzman is at 3.32.

So, you give them both 600 at bats and you get the following.

Hudson - 600 AB - 2,280 pitches seen
Guzman - 600 AB - 1,992 pitches seen

Hudson sees about 288 more pitches a year than Guzman. A.) Helps tire out the pitching staff, B.) Gives Morgan time to figure out the pitcher and time his jump.

How about these numbers:

Half a pitch per at bat? 3 more pitches per game? Give the man 7 million dollars!

Just be careful what are you doing by throwing numbers out there.

[Obed_Marsh]

How does comparing Guzman to Hudson do anything? Guzman is a 10 & 5 guy and cannot be traded unless he consents. It is pretty unlikely Desmond gets playing time with both Guzman and Hudson on the roster.

The real question is do you want Hudson or Desmond in the lineup?

[KnorrForYourMoney]

This is silliness, right here.

.03 higher in OBP? He'll get on base 3/100 PA more than Guzman. Once in 20 games? Your 8 and 9 out of ten are flat out wrong. 8 or 9 more times in a SEASON.

That's what I meant.  They'll score more runs over the course of a season.

How does comparing Guzman to Hudson do anything? Guzman is a 10 & 5 guy and cannot be traded unless he consents. It is pretty unlikely Desmond gets playing time with both Guzman and Hudson on the roster.

The real question is do you want Hudson or Desmond in the lineup?

Like I said before, it's unlikely that both Guzman and Hudson remain healthy all year.  It's really a matter of two things:

1. Do you want the configuration to be: Guzman and Desmond start on opening day, Pete Orr steps in when one of them gets hurt, or Hudson/Guzman start while Desmond gets a little more seasoning at AAA then steps in in the event of injury/suckitude?

2. Do you want Guzman to start the season in sulk mode as he's forced to play at 2B?

We'd be so much better off starting the season with Guzman/Hudson.

[PANatsFan]

That's what I meant.  They'll score more runs over the course of a season.

Yeah, ok, it could be read that way but people think it makes an enormous difference in a single game. It's a game of extreme failure.

The real question is do you want Hudson or Desmond in the lineup?

We've given up on that question because it is so frustrating.

[Evolution33]

How does comparing Guzman to Hudson do anything? Guzman is a 10 & 5 guy and cannot be traded unless he consents. It is pretty unlikely Desmond gets playing time with both Guzman and Hudson on the roster.

The real question is do you want Hudson or Desmond in the lineup?

Guzman doesn't have to consent to be traded to the bench.

[ronnynat]

If Desmond has been working ALL offseason on his defense, then I think he deserves the spot.

[tomterp]

Yeah, ok, it could be read that way but people think it makes an enormous difference in a single game. It's a game of extreme failure.


We've given up on that question because it is so frustrating.

Well, with Hudson / Guzman in the lineup, Desmond's in reserve.  If Desmond / Guzman are in the lineup, Orr / Rodriguez / Harris are in reserve.

[PANatsFan]

Well, with Hudson / Guzman in the lineup, Desmond's in reserve.  If Desmond / Guzman are in the lineup, Orr / Rodriguez / Harris are in reserve.

RIZZO SIGNED A-ROD !?!?!

[Obed_Marsh]

Guzman doesn't have to consent to be traded to the bench.

Do you really expect that to happen if Guzman puts up his usual performance?

I don't see him getting benched and believe Desmond should get a shot so unless it is bargain basement prices I don't really care about signing Hudson. Mostly because one of them must be tradable. Guzman won't ever be but Hudson might be on cheap contract.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Well, with Hudson / Guzman in the lineup, Desmond's in reserve.  If Desmond / Guzman are in the lineup, Orr / Rodriguez / Harris are in reserve.

Actually, Bruntlett, Gonzalez, or Harris are probably your back up MIs if Hudson is signed. Desmond plays every day in Syracuse, and Espinosa plays in Harrisburg.  Desmond gets a call up when one of the starters gets DL'd.

It occurs to me that if we do sign Hudson, then he may be the more likely trade candidate than Guz due to Guz's 10/5 rights.  Barring Evol's solution or the old Felipe Lopez / Paul Lo Duca / Johnny Estrada method of dealling with dead weight.

[Evolution33]

Do you really expect that to happen if Guzman puts up his usual performance?

I don't see him getting benched and believe Desmond should get a shot so unless it is bargain basement prices I don't really care about signing Hudson. Mostly because one of them must be tradable. Guzman won't ever be but Hudson might be on cheap contract.

I would like to hope that the best player plays regardless of contract. I think the team knows that Guzman is done as a short stop for a full season, but if he can fill in at second, short stop, and third it will increase his value on the open market and I am sure him and his agent know this. If contract status affects whose name Riggleman writes on the line-up card then he should be fired.

[The Chief]

Wouldn't you want Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn to come up to the plate with someone on base more often?

Sure, of course I would.  But the Dodgers had the same benefit last season and somehow Hudson managed to get driven in no more often than Guzman did.  It's obviously not a 1:1 comparison, but still.

If you think Guzman is equal to Hudson offensively, you're admitting that this is not preferable to you.

I never said anything of the sort.  I was merely questioning just how much benefit Hudson's added OBP *really* brings.  I don't want to get into an abstract math debate, but any numbers I've crunched don't show what I would consider to be an overwhelming advantage from Hudson's *direct* offensive contributions.  I will certainly allow for the fact that more subtle factors like pitches taken, opportunities for Morgan to steal, and of course superior (?) defense would all add up, however.  In theory, at least.

I just wanted to hear some more grounded opinions on what exactly people think Hudson will contribute aside from raw individual numbers, no matter how fancy

[PANatsFan]

 I was merely questioning just how much benefit Hudson's added OBP *really* brings. 

8 or 9 times more a year, he'll be on base before Dunn or Zimm. Period.

[Obed_Marsh]

I hope your right Evo but this organizations past behavior leaves me highly skeptical.

[blue911]

8 or 9 times more a year, he'll be on base before Dunn or Zimm. Period.

So we can count on Zimm hitting into 8 or 9 more DP's?

[The Chief]

To put my own spin on PA's math:

Hudson '09 OBP - .357
Guz - .306

For the sake of simplicity let's just say .350 vs .300.  That's one baserunner every 20 plate appearances.  When put against Zimmerman's career BA of .277 with men on, that's about 8 extra runners advanced over the course of a 600-PA season.  There is no guarantee that any of those runners will necessarily score, but 8 is essentially the top end.  I'm not really going to consider Dunn following Zimmerman seeing as Zimm is the king of the DP and will likely clear the bases enough times to more or less negate any followup chances Dunn has to advance Hudson after Zimmerman outs himself.

Again, I freely admit that OBP is only one aspect of Hudson's "superior" offensive value, but I feel obligated to point out that by itself, it's really nothing to crow about.

Aspects like seeing more pitches or giving more chances for Morgan to still were exactly the more grounded specifics I wanted to hear about.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

8 or 9 times more a year, he'll be on base before Dunn or Zimm. Period.

It's more than this.

I count about 20 more times over 600 PA.

I just wanted to hear some more grounded opinions on what exactly people think Hudson will contribute aside from raw individual numbers, no matter how fancy

Well none of us saw Hudson play every day, so it's impossible not to use numbers.

[PANatsFan]

To put my own spin on PA's math:

A nice way of saying I dropped like a factor of five, from PA/game.

Should have done better dimensional analysis