Author Topic: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing  (Read 115798 times)

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Offline Spinman

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #275 on: December 11, 2009, 06:00:15 pm »
Comments like this one are stupid just because there is no fact what so ever
All right guys its time for Spinman to chime in here. The Nats have always limited Balester to shorter outings just to get his feet wet. He would always know that if he got into any trouble he would look in the pen and there would be activity. After signing D Cab that took the wind out of his sail for 2009. Bonehead move on the managements part in 2009 IMO. I really do feel that the rotation will be FA, Lannan, Stammen, Detwiler, Balester. they will go with these guys for the whole season. If Stammen and Balester get into trouble they will move to the pen and have McCatty and Pudge work with them. Strasburg will be brought up if any of the guys struggle real early. If Not , Strasburg will be in AAA all year and he will be in the rotation in 2011. That rotation will look like Strasburg, Lannan, Detwiler, Balester, Stammen.   Stammen and Balester could be put into the pen in 2011 if they don't pitch well as starters in 2010 because J Zimm will be back. J Zimm might even be put into the Pen because of his arm troubles. If Balester and Stammen stay in the rotation  all year they would only have around 50 career Major league starts each. Stammen would be 26 years old and Balester would just be 24.  The Nats will  probably get a Pineiro type of starter for 2010. I don't think they will mess with anyone who has arm or shoulder troubles.

Mock, JD will be in the pen too. There would be no use having an HOF catcher and a FA to mentor these young guys if they are all down in AAA. Thats my take on all of it!

Let Spring training begin! Go Nats!

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #276 on: December 11, 2009, 07:11:16 pm »


I would much rather have Stammen starting than Balester. We already know that Balester won't ever be anything special.
I'd like to see Stammen in the rotation too. I'm highest on him out of the young guys right now.

I wouldn't give up on Bally yet.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #277 on: December 11, 2009, 11:33:48 pm »
Pineiro, prior to last year, was basically the equivalent of the others mentioned in this thread.  He's a league average pitcher who had his best year, by a large margin, in his contract year with Dave Duncan as his pitching coach.  There are so many red flags there, not to mention that he's 32, that I would not put him ahead of the kinds of guys we actually could use.

We need pitchers who put up IP until the young guys have been built up enough to do so.  Guys like Jon Garland are exactly what we need.  Lots of innings, average to good pitching, and injury free.

And, for those who actually think W/L matter with starting pitchers, have you watched a game in the last 40 years?  There was a time when starters routinely finished their games.  During THAT time W/L was a relevant stat for starters because they played a much bigger role in the result.  The modern game has much more bullpen use.  Add in things like offensive production, defensive play, etc. and to say W/L is a primary way to judge a starting pitcher means you are not worthy of debate.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #278 on: December 12, 2009, 01:34:36 am »
Pineiro, prior to last year, was basically the equivalent of the others mentioned in this thread.  He's a league average pitcher who had his best year, by a large margin, in his contract year with Dave Duncan as his pitching coach.  There are so many red flags there, not to mention that he's 32, that I would not put him ahead of the kinds of guys we actually could use.

We need pitchers who put up IP until the young guys have been built up enough to do so.  Guys like Jon Garland are exactly what we need.  Lots of innings, average to good pitching, and injury free.

And, for those who actually think W/L matter with starting pitchers, have you watched a game in the last 40 years?  There was a time when starters routinely finished their games.  During THAT time W/L was a relevant stat for starters because they played a much bigger role in the result.  The modern game has much more bullpen use.  Add in things like offensive production, defensive play, etc. and to say W/L is a primary way to judge a starting pitcher means you are not worthy of debate.

Good post.

Spinman, thanks for bring up Detwiler. I think he's due for a star season. Collin and Stammen are going to complement nicely, but Detwiler's going to open some eyes. I bet those guys are thrilled about Pudge ( some said so on Twitter). I want to see Lannan go over 200 innings, too. Then you bring in a Garland, a Marquis, or both, and you are cooking.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #279 on: December 12, 2009, 01:37:38 am »
Lannan doesn't care what you think! You're a NERD, just like the rest of us!

j/k... sort of.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #280 on: December 12, 2009, 01:44:36 am »
Lannan doesn't care what you think! You're a NERD, just like the rest of us!

j/k... sort of.

I'm a nerd alright, but I have news for Senor Unibrow . . .

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #281 on: December 12, 2009, 03:45:36 am »
Pineiro, prior to last year, was basically the equivalent of the others mentioned in this thread.  He's a league average pitcher who had his best year, by a large margin, in his contract year with Dave Duncan as his pitching coach.  There are so many red flags there, not to mention that he's 32, that I would not put him ahead of the kinds of guys we actually could use.

We need pitchers who put up IP until the young guys have been built up enough to do so.  Guys like Jon Garland are exactly what we need.  Lots of innings, average to good pitching, and injury free.

And, for those who actually think W/L matter with starting pitchers, have you watched a game in the last 40 years?  There was a time when starters routinely finished their games.  During THAT time W/L was a relevant stat for starters because they played a much bigger role in the result.  The modern game has much more bullpen use.  Add in things like offensive production, defensive play, etc. and to say W/L is a primary way to judge a starting pitcher means you are not worthy of debate.

Great post. Couldn't agree more.

Good post.

Spinman, thanks for bring up Detwiler. I think he's due for a star season. Collin and Stammen are going to complement nicely, but Detwiler's going to open some eyes. I bet those guys are thrilled about Pudge ( some said so on Twitter). I want to see Lannan go over 200 innings, too. Then you bring in a Garland, a Marquis, or both, and you are cooking.

Agreed as well. We bring in those two. Have Lannan up. Use Stammen/Detwiler/Balester to fill in the last two until Strasburg, we could have a solid rotation by '11 or '12, maybe even end of '10 (just until JZ comes back)

Offline The Chief

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #282 on: December 12, 2009, 08:52:03 am »
Potomac please mind the namecalling.  I have edited your post accordingly.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #283 on: December 12, 2009, 01:11:26 pm »
Spinman - agree with much of what you said. I think I ranked my veteran preferences a few posts back for one slot.  I would not mind another veteran "Flyer" in the mix, too.  I see the rotation right now as Stable Vet, Lannan, more likely than not Detwiler, then a competition among 4 or so for the last two slots (Flyer, Balester, Stammen, Martin, Martis maybe).  Two of those start in the rotation, one in the bullpen, 2 others stretch out in Syracuse to fill in for injuries.  You need about 7 or 8 MLB-capable starters to not have depth problems.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #284 on: December 12, 2009, 01:24:44 pm »
Quote
Ken_Rosenthal: Braves trying to trade K. Johnson. Otherwise, non-tender.

why aren't the nats interested?

And I thought we had to tender/non-tender people before last night?

edit: the deadline is tonight. nice.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #285 on: December 12, 2009, 01:30:12 pm »
I would guess for tonight:

Non-Tender - Olsen, Nieves, MacDougal, Bergmann

Tender - Willingham, Flores, Burnett

Offline Battleship

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #286 on: December 12, 2009, 01:44:23 pm »
It will be interesting to see.  I get the impression from Rizzo's quotes that Olsen's healthy, so I expect they'd tender him and release him a la Hill if he has a bad Spring. 

Bergmann might stay as well, he won't get much in arby.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #287 on: December 12, 2009, 01:46:45 pm »
why aren't the nats interested?

And I thought we had to tender/non-tender people before last night?

edit: the deadline is tonight. nice.

Kelly Johnson can't hit a lick. No interest.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #288 on: December 12, 2009, 01:53:39 pm »
Kelly Johnson can't hit a lick. No interest.
He was solid in '07 and '08 as the full-time starter.

'07: 26 Doubles, 10 Triples, 16 HRs, 68 RBIs, 91 Runs, 79 BBs, 117 Ks (.276/.375/.457)

'08: 39 Doubles, 6 Triples, 12 HRs, 69 RBIs, 86 Runs, 52 BBs, 113 Ks (.287/.349/.446)

He's only 27. Okay defensively.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #289 on: December 12, 2009, 02:00:20 pm »
Johnson is also not really a 2B, not what this team needs.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #290 on: December 12, 2009, 02:02:34 pm »
MLBTR's assessment of Johnson seems apt and accurate: "The 27-year-old hit just .224/.303/.389 last season, and has seen all three triple-slash stats decline for three straight years. UZR/150 has consistently rated Johnson's defense as below average."

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #291 on: December 12, 2009, 02:06:54 pm »
I'd take him over Guzman.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #292 on: December 12, 2009, 02:14:02 pm »
Guzman's defense may be similar to Johnson's, but at least he'll bat .290 instead of .220.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #293 on: December 12, 2009, 02:19:07 pm »
I'd take him over Guzman.

You are the only one.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #294 on: December 12, 2009, 02:20:25 pm »
Johnson is a career .264 hitter. Had rough year last season but his prior two seasons were solid.

He has more power than Guzman and draws more walks.

Not the perfect player but he could help.

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #295 on: December 12, 2009, 06:02:00 pm »
Kelly Johnson is a utility player who can be a decent starter if needed, basically. We have Mike Morse, I don't think we really need Johnson.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #296 on: December 12, 2009, 08:52:31 pm »
Johnson is a career .264 hitter. Had rough year last season but his prior two seasons were solid.

Are you familiar with Marcel the Monkey?  Not the one on Friends - the projection system developed by Tom Tango.  It's kind of nice for its simplicity.   He looks at the last 3 years performance, weights these something like 5-4-3, tosses in a regression to career or league average (a weight of 2) and some sort of adjustment based on age, with older guys being bumped down and younger guys being bumped up.  Fairly simple, but jsut about as effective as more complex and proprietary systems like PECOTA.

I'm not trying to sell anyone on any projection system, and we've argued over their value.  Why I mention when you talk about Kelly Johnson is that he has more or less had 3 years as a starter and his trend in the heavier weighted, more recent years is down relative to his career average.  He's probably not as bad as last year, so some bounce back can be expected, and he's entering his peak years.  You can look at his Marcel projection as sort of a tweaked career average and projection.  Unfortunately, I can't find his next year Marcel. What projections there are that I see on Fangraphs looks for a bounce back to about a .770 OPS, low double digits HR, .340+ OBP, and a better than career average batting average.  That looks a little optimistic to my eye (pretending to be the monkey), but perhaps the .260 / .335 / .415 with 10 HRs does not seem crazy.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #297 on: December 12, 2009, 10:28:25 pm »
One more thing about Johnson:  Anyone remember BABIP?  There some evidence his absolutely stinky year last year was tied mostly to atrocious luck on balls in play.  

2005 - .296 (1/2 season)
2006 - injured
2007 - .330
2008 - .344
2009 - .249 (editorial comment - WTF?)

He also reduced his BBs and Ks, maintaining his career BB/K ratio.  Greater % of balls in play, with fewer dropping in.  His ISO (Isolated power - SLG minus batting average) stayed constant, so his SLG drop looks like it was driven by fewer balls dropping in rather than weak contact.  his bad offensive season has lots of signs of bad luck.  Edit - a little more looking shows he is becoming more of a fly ball hitter, and flies tend to drop less frequently than line drives or ground balls go through.  More or less, the past 3 years, he has had groudners turn into liners turn into flies, by % of balls hit.  Anyone have a different impression who saw  a lot of ATL games?

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #298 on: December 12, 2009, 11:01:21 pm »

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing
« Reply #299 on: December 13, 2009, 12:17:38 pm »
One more on Kelly Johnson.  Even with the change from line drives to flies from 2008 to 2009, there still seems to be a lot of luck (good '08, bad '09) in his offense.  The Fangraphs take:

Quote
Kelly Johnson (.268/.346/.436, .341 wOBA)

Let’s compare Johnson’s 2008 and 2009 seasons:

2008: 8.7 BB%, 20.7 K%, .159 ISO, .344 BABIP, .346 wOBA
2009: 9.6 BB%, 17.8 K%, .165 ISO, .249 BABIP, .306 wOBA

The lefty batter (28 in February) walked a little more this past season, punched out less, and hit for a similar amount of power. Johnson’s BABIP, however, dipped nearly 100 points. Kelly’s XBABIP was .329 in 2008 and .313 in 2009. Here are what Johnson’s lines would have looked like in ‘08 and ‘09, based on his XBABIP figures (and this is assuming all additional hits were singles):

2008 actual line: .287/.349/.446, .346 wOBA
2008 adjusted line: .272/.334/.431, .333 wOBA

2009 actual line: .224/.303/.389, .306 wOBA
2009 adjusted line: .288/.367/.453, .359 wOBA

Johnson is no great shakes at second base (career -7.4 UZR/150), but he can also man the outfield corners and looks to be a strong candidate to bou

Note also this link has a discussion of a few other hitters who were cut.  The most interesting of those mentioned might be Ryan Garko as a depth signing or maybe a platoon with Willie in left if Willingham were traded.