2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing

[PANatsFan]

Ladson's probably heard talk by club officials.

Collin makes a good point - the prep is different. Hmm. One way or another, Ballester will be breaking camp with the team . . .

[cmdterps44]

Collin makes a good point - the prep is different. Hmm. One way or another, Ballester will be breaking camp with the team . . .

I'm glad. I hope he kicks ass.

I found it funny that Balester denied Clob Slobson

[Potomac Cannons]

freak.  now i'm getting annoyed we missed out on wolf and harden. 

2 years/18 mil for harden would've been a nice starting offer i think.

9m a year is quite a bit for max 150 IP each year.

[JMW IV]

Harden got 1/7.5 with an 11.5 player option for 2011.

you really thing 2/18 would have gotten it done? Without the possibility of going back to the fa market getting a better deal next offseason?

[hammondsnats]

Harden got 1/7.5 with an 11.5 player option for 2011.

you really thing 2/18 would have gotten it done? Without the possibility of going back to the fa market getting a better deal next offseason?

i said starting offer.  not final.

[houston-nat]

These winter meetings didn't help us on the starting pitching front. I would suggest we look at one ex-Padre, Eulogio de la Cruz, and one soon-to-be-ex-Padre, Kevin Correia, over the coming days, though. Surely we can send San Diego something they want for Correia so as to prevent a bidding war with the other dozen teams that might be interested. De La Cruz pitched in AAA this year; he has a 97mph fastball and a K rate of 7-8 per 9 innings, but he walks a lot of people.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Damn. Rizzo is targeting guys I feel like are not good fits for the Nats.

Kasten said when they hired Rizzo that he was a huge stats type GM. Marquis had an ERA .51 runs less than his career average in 2009.
. . .
And if Rizzo was such a stats guy... I think he'd see that and target guys that he can maximize their value while minimizing their monetary value.

Somehow, I think the word "not" is either missing from your post or memory, or somehow jumped into mine. 

Everything I've seen about Rizzo is that he is from a scouting background and while he does not reject advanced stats, places them behind observation.  He is quoted as saying something like, "of course I look at them.  their not so hard," in a Boz article.  Boz swagged the organization as 60/40 scouting v. stat analysis. 

[Minty Fresh]

At this point, I'd rather the Nats passed on the likes of Marquis, Washburn, Garland, et al.  Those guys are only 10-15 game winners on really good teams.  I think our younger pitchers like Balester, Detwiler and Stammen can win close to 10 games if you give them 30+ starts anyway.  If the Nats sign two of those mediocre (at best) free agent pitchers they're relly only getting an extra 7-12 wins next year.

We should spend our time making sure that we give the best possible run support and defense to the kids we already have, find out who's going to be in the rotation going forward, who can handle to rigors of being a starting pitcher and blow our wad with Halladay next year when he's a free agent.

I'd rather give the starts to Balester, Stammen, Detwiler, etc. and see what their made of than jump up to 65 wins with Garland/Washburn/Marquis.  The only pitcher on the market I'd want to sign is Lackey because he's the type of pitcher who you can count on long-term.  Marquis, Washburn, Garland, etc. are really the types of pitchers you acquire to round out a championship rotation and that's only if you're in need of a #4 or #5 type starter.

[tomterp]

Somehow, I think the word "not" is either missing from your post or memory, or somehow jumped into mine. 

Everything I've seen about Rizzo is that he is from a scouting background and while he does not reject advanced stats, places them behind observation.  He is quoted as saying something like, "of course I look at them.  their not so hard," in a Boz article.  Boz swagged the organization as 60/40 scouting v. stat analysis. 

Wasn't one of their new front office hires a stats guru?

[Evolution33]

Wasn't one of their new front office hires a stats guru?

Yes and I am sure his job is just to do the hard work and explain it to Rizzo. A truly good leader knows not to try and do everything themselves. Hopefully they don't just look at Marquis and disqualify him because the stats say he will revert to his career average without first understanding why he diverted from his career average in the first place. Stats can tell if it was due to the ballpark, the competition, or other recordable factors. But I think the tapes on him for this last season can be important as well. Maybe the pitching coach changed his delivery and it helped him get a lower ERA. Or there is some other physical change that stats cannot tell.

[Lintyfresh85]

Well whatever it was... he reverted back to his former self in the second half of the season.

Do you really want to pay 9 million a year for a guy that couldn't even crack the postseason rotation of the Rockies?

[DPMOmaha]

that contract was also signed before the market bottomed out.  He won't cost 9 mil.

[Evolution33]

Well whatever it was... he reverted back to his former self in the second half of the season.

Do you really want to pay 9 million a year for a guy that couldn't even crack the postseason rotation of the Rockies?

I honestly don't care what the team spends as long as it doesn't keep them from making smart moves. Whoever we get is going to be an improvement however small. At this point it is baby steps. Let's just aim for a low 90s or high 80s number of loses next year. If we can take 10 loses off each year then in 10 years we will be undefeated.

[HalfSmokes]

I honestly don't care what the team spends as long as it doesn't keep them from making smart moves.

Unless they have an unlimited budget, thats pretty much what a bad move does.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The article from Boz was on 11/19.  Here's the part I remembered:

"We have had a great offseason," General Manager Mike Rizzo said. Before you even sign a free agent? "Exactly," he said.

Were the Nats understaffed before? Yes. Did the presence of the controversial Bowden hinder the hiring of more top talent? Probably. Have the owners decided to spend on an area where results are hard to quantify and that some "Moneyballers" think is just dead weight? Absolutely.

The Nats have taken a stand. When they trade, draft or sign a free agent player, "We want our eyes and the numbers to agree," Rizzo said. "But we'll lean toward the scout."

"These are guys who sit in ballparks at every level, watch games and talk to other scouts," President Stan Kasten said. "It sounds trivial. But in baseball, there is nothing more important. They are the wise old owls."

Once you say such words, even when you add that the Nats give just a 65-35 weighting to scouting over modern statistical analysis, you are going to have quality scouts lined up to work for a team with which their talents will be respected, not inspected.

Even 30 years after the creation of the first new stats, including one of mine, the line between number nerds with Ivy League degrees and scouts with decades of bleacher splinters is as bright red as the Mason-Dixon Line. If you say you believe in both (obviously the only sane approach), eyes narrow.

The day the Nats took the "interim" title off Rizzo, whose dad is still a beloved scout (his radar gun probably pointed at Stephen Strasburg right now, even if he's only walking) the Nats couldn't hide their stripes.

"They know this is a baseball shop," said Rizzo.

[Evolution33]

Unless they have an unlimited budget, thats pretty much what a bad move does.

Exactly my point. I don't know what the budget is so I don't know what a bad move would be. It isn't my job to know, and I don't really care to argue over giving $9 million to want crappy innings eater for one year over giving $9 million to another crappy innings eater. As far as I am concerned Livan, Washburn, Padilla, Marquis, Garland, and whoever else we are targetting are all the same species crapamus inningeaterus.

[Lintyfresh85]

The article from Boz was on 11/19.  Here's the part I remembered:

The 'stats' thing came from a video interview with Kastan at Rizzo's hiring. He said Mike was a 'big stats guy' and that he loved all that stuff like VORP, WAR, etc. etc.

Maybe I heard him wrong... or maybe Stan wasn't exactly sure of Rizzo's love/interest in Sabermetrics.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I did not see the video.  did he look like he was pulling everyone's leg?

[Lintyfresh85]

No. He meant it.

I'm sure he was just talking out of his ass to please the fans though.

I doubt Stan actually knows what goes on in a GM office anyways.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

By the way, the Red Sox got Boof from the Twins.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Ha...Homo Rotationus

As far as I am concerned Livan, Washburn, Padilla, Marquis, Garland, and whoever else we are targetting are all the same species crapamus inningeaterus.

[aspenbubba]

Winter meetings are over and I have to give the Nats' a D+ at this point . A C+ for signing Bruney and a D- for Pudge.The more I read about front office comments on the signing I get that it is mostly spin ala JB.

[Potomac Cannons]

blah blah blah blah

Wins are a useless stat to judge starters by.  Right now guys like Garland are going to come in, keep their pitch count in check, throw strikes, keep us in games and save the bullpen from massive overuse.  The young guys might do that or might not.  Make them push their way into the rotation by showing they've stopped throwing balls, stopped throwing 18-20 pitches per inning and stopped falling apart at the 5th inning/3rd time through the lineup.

[sportsfan882]

Winter meetings are over and I have to give the Nats' a D+ at this point . A C+ for signing Bruney and a D- for Pudge.The more I read about front office comments on the signing I get that it is mostly spin ala JB.

yeah, this is kind of disappointing. The Nats did not do nearly enough for a team that has lost 100+ in two straight seasons. There is still time but Rizzo must act fast.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

We still have a month or so.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/10/AR2009121001597.html

So, by adding Iván Rodríguez and Brian Bruney, do the Nats qualify as busy holiday shoppers?

"These are smaller items on our list," team President Stan Kasten said. "Now we can move on."

I'll hold you to it, Kasten!

If the Nats don't make some noise, well, Chief better ban me because I will become the most insufferable poster ever.  If you thought hammondsnats was irksome in "parrot mode," you ain't seen nothin yet.