The Bryce Harper Watch

[JCA-CrystalCity]

But you have to remember that this league is the best prospects in A, AA, and AAA. He will only face maybe 5 pitchers in Potomac that are the caliber of the pitchers here. Plus those numbers are good even with the Strikeouts. Look at Mike Stanton as a comparison.

Not saying I'm unimpressed, especially at his age.  His performance kind of shows that he has yet to be clearly overmatched at any level of baseball competition. I'm guessing he could walk into major league camp and hit .250 with power - and a 40% strikeout rate.  I really want to see him have to hit  > 10% BB and <20% Ks before he is advanced beyond A+.  I think a key on whether he is going to be great will be keeping that K rate down.

[Lintyfresh85]

Not saying I'm unimpressed, especially at his age.  His performance kind of shows that he has yet to be clearly overmatched at any level of baseball competition. I'm guessing he could walk into major league camp and hit .250 with power - and a 40% strikeout rate.  I really want to see him have to hit  > 10% BB and <20% Ks before he is advanced beyond A+.  I think a key on whether he is going to be great will be keeping that K rate down.

Agreed with JCA on this one.

[NatsDad14]

Not saying I'm unimpressed, especially at his age.  His performance kind of shows that he has yet to be clearly overmatched at any level of baseball competition. I'm guessing he could walk into major league camp and hit .250 with power - and a 40% strikeout rate.  I really want to see him have to hit  > 10% BB and <20% Ks before he is advanced beyond A+.  I think a key on whether he is going to be great will be keeping that K rate down.

He doesn't need an under 20% K rate. Lots of prospects don't reach that. If he is around 20-25% he will be fine. If he is over that, then there should be some concerns. Look at Mike Stanton. He has never had a K rate under 20% yet he succeeded with a decent walk, ridiculous power approach. He is the guy the Nats should have Harper strive to become like.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm just wondering, does this organization have any track record of improving prospect's K rates as they move through the system? Free swinging/high k rate seems to be the knock on a lot of our prospects

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm just wondering, does this organization have any track record of improving prospect's K rates as they move through the system? Free swinging/high k rate seems to be the knock on a lot of our prospects

Burgess?

[HalfSmokes]

Burgess?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389928&position=OF

still looks like a k machine to me

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Except for his 87 PAs in AA at the end of the year, the trend was not bad. 

[HalfSmokes]

I guess, you're still talking about a K rate above 20%

[imref]

Rizzo says Harper is going to start in Hagerstown.  I assume this is subject to change based on how he does in the spring.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/17/AR2010111706464.html

[NJ Ave]

We can't get TOO unrealistic. Since 2005, there have only been 31 seasons where someone has an ISO of .250 or more (showing elite power) but less than 120 strikeouts in 600 or more plate appearances (K rate of less than 20%).

And in 22 of those 31 seasons, the player has greater than 100 Ks. The remaining seasons belong mostly to Albert Pujols, the only player with more than one season like that.

Usually (to paraphrase Spiderman) with great power comes great striking out. I'm less concerned about him having good raw strikeout and walk numbers and more concerned with him getting good scouting reports regarding laying off bad breaking pitches and recognizing the better stuff he sees. The power will always be there, as will the strikeouts (likely).

[Sharp]

Are you trying to tell us not to be disappointed if Bryce Harper doesn't end up as good as or better than Albert Pujols?  He was on the cover of SI!

[NJ Ave]

Hell, there were only 30 5-win players in the league last year. I'd take Harper turning into Jayson Werth, wouldn't you?

You wouldn't take a power-hitting RF civil war general?

[blue911]

Are you trying to tell us not to be disappointed if Bryce Harper doesn't end up as good as or better than Albert Pujols?  He was on the cover of SI!

That's the curse. get on the cover and you end up worse than Albert.

[Nathan]

Yep.  Just look at what happened to me.  I'm worse than Albert and all I did was READ a cover.  Damn curse.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Hell, there were only 30 5-win players in the league last year. I'd take Harper turning into Jayson Werth, wouldn't you?

You wouldn't take a power-hitting RF civil war general?

I don't want Harper to suffer injuries and get good with another franchise.

But really, I agree with you wholeheartedly.  If Harper becomes a very good player rather than an all-time great, I will take it.

[Sharp]

That's the curse. get on the cover and you end up worse than Albert.

No wonder Michael Jordan never made it out of the minors, he was on the cover like fifty times

And yes, of course I"m just teasing.  Harper's floor (since we're all bandying about words like floor and ceiling these days) is an Adum Dunn type player with better defense.  I'd take that without thinking twice.

[blue911]

Yep.  Just look at what happened to me.  I'm worse than Albert and all I did was READ a cover.  Damn curse.

True, bet she throws like a girl.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

We can't get TOO unrealistic. Since 2005, there have only been 31 seasons where someone has an ISO of .250 or more (showing elite power) but less than 120 strikeouts in 600 or more plate appearances (K rate of less than 20%).

Are you saying at the major league level or are you including the minors?  I fully expect his K rate to increase when hits upper minors and the majors.  But in A ball I'd like to see a lower K rate, especially when low swinging Ks.

[tomterp]

I'd take Harper turning into Jayson Werth, wouldn't you?

At this point in the hype machine, it's Mickey Mantle or bust.

[Lintyfresh85]

Harper isn't starting tomorrow... Burgess is.

Harper will play though.

[imref]

Harper said today he thought it would be awesome if he could make his debut in 2012 alongside the return of Strasburg.

[Lintyfresh85]

Strasburg would be happy. Takes all the media pressure off him.

[Sharp]

Yeah... he could focus on what he loves best and pitch.  And Harper loooves the media.

[Obed_Marsh]

Harper is projected to be in the Majors by 2013, but, thus far, the 18-year old has proven he could play with professionals. He wasn't over matched in the instructional league or the Arizona Fall League. He will be in Major League Spring Training and will face big league pitching for the first time.

It wouldn't come as a surprise if Harper played well and made the team out of Spring Training. It can be done. Remember Al Kaline? He made his Major League debut at the age of 18 and went on to have a Hall of Fame career.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101224&content_id=16367546&vkey=news_was&c_id=was&partnerId=rss_was

 

[houston-nat]

Would he be that much worse a CF than Nyjer Morgan?