2025 Off-season - general thread

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

There is no excuse for a team in DC with the 3rd richest owners in the sport to have a payroll below $70M. Maybe Josh Harris can buy the Nats too.

[OfftheBat]

There is no excuse for a team in DC with the 3rd richest owners in the sport to have a payroll below $70M. Maybe Josh Harris can buy the Nats too.

Absolutely pathetic...

[imref]

Talknats loves our defense :

1st Base:  Nathaniel Lowe is a true Gold Glove
2nd Base: Luis Garcia Jr. improved in 2024 to +5.0 OAA
SS: CJ Abrams hired a defensive coach in
@NateTrosky
 in the offseason
3B: Paul DeJong in 2 months with the Royals at 3rd base posted an annualized +18 OAA
RF: Dylan Crews won the MiLB Gold Glove
CF: Jacob Young was the best fielding outfielder in MLB despite getting snubbed on the Gold Glove
LF: James Wood improved to a positive on all aspects in defense in Aug/Sept except coming in all balls
C: Keibert Ruiz went from a bottom-5 defensive catcher to above league average in Aug/Sep

[varoadking]

Talknats love our defense :

Defense wins Championships...

Wait...wrong sport...

[Smithian]

Talknats loves our defense :

The Nationals have been the worst defensive team in baseball from 2020-2024 by WAR. And it's not even close. Baserunning were seventh worst over that time. It's the best argument for, "Nats should have had a new manager by now." Last season, bottom five again in defense, but top 10 in baserunning. Looking at our roster this upcoming season, there is no reason the Nationals should not be average on defense. If they stayed positive on baserunning and got to middle third of the league, not even asking for average, then that is best argument for serious internal improvement. Nationals have second worse ERA underperformance in the majors as compared to xFIP, only the Rockies are worse which I blame some on Coors. Funky stat, but then on the other end the two top overperformers are Astros and Dodgers.

The Nationals have had defensive disasters at 1B, Lowe solves that. Ruiz and Garcia are entering the ages where you'd should expect defensive improvement is maintained. Wood and Crews are young with high defensive upside, and in short term they can't be worse than Rosario and Winker. I thought Lane Thomas looked good defensively, but analytics did not like him even over a large sample size. Jacob Young is great in CF.

Tena is the second biggest huge question mark. We have no reason to think he is good defensively. Either he hits well or I am imagine he is gone quickly.

Biggest question is CJ Abrams. Worst defensive short stop in baseball last couple seasons. He has enough athletic ability there is no reason he shouldn't be better. Let's say after he hit his professional nadir last year that the humiliation made him get serious. It's not inconceivable he could improve to below average. If he isn't hitting a ton early and his defense isn't improved, I don't think his leash is ultra long.

I don't love the DeJong signing but I wouldn't be surprised if Abrams struggles at plate they just throw DeJong there. They do that and Nationals may have an above average defense.

I struggle to see the Nationals going from awful defensively over 5 seasons to being average in the space of a single offseason, but the lineup gives me hope it's possible. They do that, you remove Corbin from going every five days, stay good on the basepaths, and you have a lot of what is needed for being around .500 when the weather warms up and starting a genuine conversation about additions at the deadline.

[aspenbubba]

Your 2025 Nationals' Opening Day Line-Up vs. 2024 OD Line Up ( like it or not)

Abrams  L   Abrams       =
Crews    R   Thomas       -
Wood     L   Rosario       +
Lowe      L   Gallo          +
Bell        S   Meneses     +
DeJong   R   Senzel       +
Garcia    L    Garcia       =
Ruiz       S    Ruiz          =
Young    R    Robles       ?

[imref]

Defense wins Championships...

Wait...wrong sport...

It certainly doesn't hurt in baseball, and teams are starting to put more resources into upgrading defense:

https://www.mlb.com/news/projecting-contending-teams-defense-for-2025?partnerId=it-20250215-12625771-mlb-1-B&utm_id=it-20250215-12625771-mlb-1-B&lctg=181851

“You may not think about defense as being quite as important as a blazing fastball or a massive homer, but that doesn’t mean there’s not considerable value in it. After all, last year, five of the top eight fielding teams made the playoffs – and all of the eight weakest fielding teams missed the playoffs. You saw how Game 5 of the World Series turned on poor defense, didn’t you? … Put it all together, and we get team projections. If we just look at teams with playoff odds of at least 20% (via FanGraphs) as ‘contenders,‘ then which ones most improved their defensive projections from what they did in 2024? The answer: The Red Sox, Giants, and Cubs. Let’s explain why — and then tell you which two contenders might be shockingly weaker with the glove. ”

[Slateman]

Your 2025 Nationals' Opening Day Line-Up vs. 2024 OD Line Up ( like it or not)

Abrams  L   Abrams       =
Crews    R   Thomas       -
Wood     L   Rosario       +
Lowe      L   Gallo          +
Bell        S   Meneses     +
DeJong   R   Senzel       +
Garcia    L    Garcia       =
Ruiz       S    Ruiz          =
Young    R    Robles       ?

Eh, I think Thomas to Crews is an improvement

[Natsinpwc]

Eh, I think Thomas to Crews is an improvement

Probably. At least equal.

[aspenbubba]

Eh, I think Thomas to Crews is an improvement

Don’t you think it is a little early to assess Crews performance versus Thomas who had a good year here and in Cleveland.

[Slateman]

Don’t you think it is a little early to assess Crews performance versus Thomas who had a good year here and in Cleveland.

.3 bWAR/1.3 fWAR? Yes, I think Crews can do that

[imref]

Chris Cotillo says we’re close to a deal with reliever Lucas Simms.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simslu01.shtml

[varoadking]

Don’t you think it is a little early to assess Crews performance versus Thomas who had a good year here and in Cleveland.

From what I've seen...they're the same player...

[Natsinpwc]

From what I've seen...they're the same player...

One is 22 and will get better. The other is 29 and what you see is what you get.

Edit. I’ll add that Crews was 0.6 bWAR for the little bit he played while Thomas was 0.3 for the whole year.

[varoadking]

One is 22 and will get better. The other is 29 and what you see is what you get.

Edit. I’ll add that Crews was 0.6 bWAR for the little bit he played while Thomas was 0.3 for the whole year.

Crews will be 23 next week...

Thomas' career numbers are .247/.313/.741.  Wonder how long it'll take for DC to match that?

[Natsinpwc]

Crews will be 23 next week...

Thomas' career numbers are .247/.313/.741.  Wonder how long it'll take for DC to match that?

2025. One season.

[Natsinpwc]

He’s also a better fielder. Thomas has a great arm but terrible otherwise.

[imref]

Lerner on lack of an impact signing kind of trashes the current team's ability to win:

“When Mike [Rizzo] calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it. Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like Jayson [Werth]. Jayson was right on the cusp of [the team] being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.”

[Natsinpwc]

Kind of a large gap between spending hundreds of millions on a player long term and the low budget signings they did. 

[imref]

Where we stand: 2/18 edition:
1B: Lowe
2B: Garcia Jr.
SS: Abrams
3B: DeJong
LF: Wood
CF: Young
RF: Crews
C: Ruiz
DH: Bell

Bench: Milas, Andrew Knizner, or Riley Adams, Rosario, plus pick two of Tena, Baker, Lipscomb, Nunez, Call, Chaparro, & Yepez

Rotation: pick 5 of Gore, Herz, Irvin, Soroka, Williams, Ogaswara, Parker

Bullpen: pick 8 of Lopez, Ferrar, Poche, Ribalta, Salazar, Reifert (Rule-5), Law, Brzykcy, Rutledge, possibly Lucas Simms if he signs

60 Day IL: Gray, Thompson

40 man at AAA: Adams or Milas, the batters who don't make the roster, Hassell, Lara, Henry, Cavalli, plus the starters and bullpen arms who don't make the cut.

My guess:
Bench: Millas, Chaparro, Rosario, Call
Rotation: Gore, Herz, Irvin, Soroka, Williams
Bullpen: Lopez (Closer), Ferrar, Poche, Salazar, Reifort, Ribalta, Law, Simms

[IanRubbish]

Where we stand: 2/18 edition:
1B: Lowe
2B: Garcia Jr.
SS: Abrams
3B: DeJong
LF: Wood
CF: Young
RF: Crews
C: Ruiz
DH: Bell

The lineup could be a lot better, no question it's at least an upgrade over last year.  Concerned about the pitching though, bullpen could be especially miserable, and they'll likely pitch close to half of all innings.

[Smithian]

Where we stand: 2/18 edition:
1B: Lowe
2B: Garcia Jr.
SS: Abrams
3B: DeJong
LF: Wood
CF: Young
RF: Crews
C: Ruiz
DH: Bell

Bench: Milas, Andrew Knizner, or Riley Adams, Rosario, plus pick two of Tena, Baker, Lipscomb, Nunez, Call, Chaparro, & Yepez

Rotation: pick 5 of Gore, Herz, Irvin, Soroka, Williams, Ogaswara, Parker

Bullpen: pick 8 of Lopez, Ferrar, Poche, Ribalta, Salazar, Reifert (Rule-5), Law, Brzykcy, Rutledge, possibly Lucas Simms if he signs

60 Day IL: Gray, Thompson

40 man at AAA: Adams or Milas, the batters who don't make the roster, Hassell, Lara, Henry, Cavalli, plus the starters and bullpen arms who don't make the cut.

My guess:
Bench: Millas, Chaparro, Rosario, Call
Rotation: Gore, Herz, Irvin, Soroka, Williams
Bullpen: Lopez (Closer), Ferrar, Poche, Salazar, Reifort, Ribalta, Law, Simms

Don't love DeJong as a starter.

But if Abrams starts badly at the plate and we have the opportunity to replace a bad bat, bad glove with a bad bat, solid glove...

[Slateman]

Don't love DeJong as a starter.

But if Abrams starts badly at the plate and we have the opportunity to replace a bad bat, bad glove with a bad bat, solid glove...

Abrams would have to slump for more than 6 weeks. There's no reason not to let young guys play through slumps.

[Smithian]

Abrams would have to slump for more than 6 weeks. There's no reason not to let young guys play through slumps.

I'm happy giving him 6 to 8 weeks at least. Less so half the season.

If the team is hanging around .500, that leash for me is shorter. If it quickly becomes apparent this is another lost season, DeJong is a wasted at bat. We know what he is.

[nobleisthyname]

Lerner on lack of an impact signing kind of trashes the current team's ability to win:

This means Lerner and Rizzo still think this is closer to a 70 win team rather than an 80 win one. Though based on his other public comments I'm not sure if Rizzo likes being spoken for on his behalf here.