2023-24 Off-Season Discussion

[imref]

So not that i agree with what i'm about to write, but taking a contrarian view:

- Rizzo makes a few late signings this year, getting a starting pitcher and Hoskins
- Crews breaks camp with the team and is our everyday CF or LF
- Gore and Gray progress
- Cavalli returns
- Wood is ready for the majors by the end of the year, as are House and YoYo

So....

Going into 2025 we've got a rotation featuring Gray, Cavalli, and Gore at the front end. With Irvin and Rutledge at the back.

We've got a lineup that looks something like this:
1. Abrams
2. Thomas
3. Crews
4. Ruiz
5. Hoskins
6. Morales
7. House
8. Wood
9. Garcia

That could be something. Maybe, just maybe, that's what Rizzo is waiting on?

[machpost]

Ouch:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-poke-the-washington-nationals-with-a-stick-to-see-if-theyre-still-alive/

Yikes. Sounds like things are bleaker than I thought. I was led to believe that they were in the early stages of a path toward relevance. But maybe not. Great analysis though.

[IanRubbish]

Brian Reinhart's post about the horrible development history is spot on, too.

It's a symptom of underfunding and dysfunction that hit other parts of the org.

When something doesn't work, they don't adjust, they don't question past approaches, and they don't get creative.  They just get defensive, insanely cheap, play "cover your butt", and promote the wrong people.  Kind of like most DC bureaucracies.

[HalfSmokes]

Does your theory hold when you compare what they spent last year to this year?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/2023/

Yes. Nelson Cruz on a 1 year deal is the only guy they've spent on since winning

[Senatorswin]

This article stinks. They have Finnegan, Thomas and Harvey for 2 more years. By then They'll have a good idea of who's going to be good and who's not going to be, of the prospects. Those three aren't the kind that would break the bank if they wanted to resign them either.

They have Garcia, Gray, Adams and Gore for 4 more years.

They have Abrams, Meneses, Garrett, and Cavalli for 5 more years.

They have guys like Pineda, Irvin, Young, Millas, and Rutledge for 6 more years.

Some of these guys will be keepers, some not, but all should still be with the Nats when the likes of Wood, House, Morales, Sykora, Vaquero and others are up. They can bid to sign any of these long term if they want.

As far as Trea Turner or Abrams, who will be the more valuable player the next 5 years. Time will tell but it could be Abrams.

As far as trading Soto, they could of kept him until he hit free agency and lost. Then when he hit free agency they would of been bidding against every other team just like they can if they want when he becomes a free agent.

Lastly, he mentions Snell. Dude wants 9 years at $30 million a year. It would be insane to sign him for that.

[Natsinpwc]

He didn’t say the Nats should have signed Snell.  He said he would be writing about Snell rather than the Nats had he signed this week.  Scraping the bottom of the barrel. 

[Senatorswin]

He didn’t say the Nats should have signed Snell.  He said he would be writing about Snell rather than the Nats had he signed this week.  Scraping the bottom of the barrel.

True.  I do like about the article is he puts in a easily readable form what they got for the trades they made. Also, he mentions the Orioles inactivity this offseason. I would hope if the Nats do get in the position the Orioles are in now the Nats would sign the pitcher that could get them over the top in the playoffs. The Orioles should trade for a solid starter or sign one but so far have done nothing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This article stinks. They have Finnegan, Thomas and Harvey for 2 more years. By then They'll have a good idea of who's going to be good and who's not going to be, of the prospects. Those three aren't the kind that would break the bank if they wanted to resign them either.

They have Garcia, Gray, Adams and Gore for 4 more years.

They have Abrams, Meneses, Garrett, and Cavalli for 5 more years.

They have guys like Pineda, Irvin, Young, Millas, and Rutledge for 6 more years.

Some of these guys will be keepers, some not, but all should still be with the Nats when the likes of Wood, House, Morales, Sykora, Vaquero and others are up. They can bid to sign any of these long term if they want.

As far as Trea Turner or Abrams, who will be the more valuable player the next 5 years. Time will tell but it could be Abrams.

As far as trading Soto, they could of kept him until he hit free agency and lost. Then when he hit free agency they would of been bidding against every other team just like they can if they want when he becomes a free agent.

Lastly, he mentions Snell. Dude wants 9 years at $30 million a year. It would be insane to sign him for that.

Finnegan especially, but also Thomas but not so much Harvey will be old and, if they are still good, costly.

Baumann thinks that the AA ballplayers may be more ready closer to 2026 than 2024, at least in bulk and through their getting their feet wet stage. If that's 2025, that's still not much overlap with Thomas, Finnegan, and Harvey. In his view, we are probably OK at catcher, I'd think especially with the years of control of Ruiz under his contract and with Millas. His main point about the deals from 2021 and 2022 is how few actual or likely contributors we got back. Just Thomas, Abrams, Ruiz, Gore, Gray, and one prospect who is likely to be a stud.

I think there's maybe a 3 year window if you look beyond Thomas for a lineup along the lines Imref posted above, but it's contingent on hitting on multiple prospects who are expected to be the studs we supplement around. Even if you are an optimist about Abrams, he's the only potential high value player on the current roster. Your studs will be Abrams, Crews, hopefully House and Wood, maybe Morales. 3 or so rotation slots occupied but no real #1 and maybe not even a #2.

[Senatorswin]

Finnegan especially, but also Thomas but not so much Harvey will be old and, if they are still good, costly.

Baumann thinks that the AA ballplayers may be more ready closer to 2026 than 2024, at least in bulk and through their getting their feet wet stage. If that's 2025, that's still not much overlap with Thomas, Finnegan, and Harvey. In his view, we are probably OK at catcher, I'd think especially with the years of control of Ruiz under his contract and with Millas. His main point about the deals from 2021 and 2022 is how few actual or likely contributors we got back. Just Thomas, Abrams, Ruiz, Gore, Gray, and one prospect who is likely to be a stud.

I think there's maybe a 3 year window if you look beyond Thomas for a lineup along the lines Imref posted above, but it's contingent on hitting on multiple prospects who are expected to be the studs we supplement around. Even if you are an optimist about Abrams, he's the only potential high value player on the current roster. Your studs will be Abrams, Crews, hopefully House and Wood, maybe Morales. 3 or so rotation slots occupied but no real #1 and maybe not even a #2.

If the Nats are in contention in a couple of years Finnegan, Harvey and Thomas should be affordable unless they explode.

The top AA guys are expected to get a taste this year or next at the latest. The only guys they traded away that they would like to have now is Turner and Soto. I think they got a good return for Soto. Ruiz and Gray for Turner for 1.5 years was good unless Turner would of agreed to a contract which we don't know.

[IanRubbish]

This article stinks. They have Finnegan, Thomas and Harvey for 2 more years. By then They'll have a good idea of who's going to be good and who's not going to be, of the prospects. Those three aren't the kind that would break the bank if they wanted to resign them either.

The issue is that the Nats are depending too heavily on prospects they had to trade for, not drafted ones, because the drafting and development have been awful.  Look at the Braves, they only had four straight losing seasons, only one in last place, and yet have had six straight 1st place finishes.  Moreover, they're nowhere near the end of a cycle having already gone through Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson while they've drafted and developed Acuna, Michael Harris, Austin Riley, Bryce Elder, and Spencer Strider, all of whom are completely home grown.  The last cycle the Nats drafted and developed Zimm, J-Zimm, Harper, Strasburg, Rendon, Ian Desmond.  Since then it's been nothing besides Soto, and are now tanking AFTER four straight losing seasons to get another high pick to make up for the weak drafts.

If Gore, Gray, Abrams, etc remain ok, but not great, and the other guys come along too slowly, there's no stars to trade away anymore, then what happens?

[Five Banners]

If Gore, Gray, Abrams, etc remain ok, but not great, and the other guys come along too slowly, there's no stars to trade away anymore, then what happens?

Washington Wizards come to mind

[Slateman]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/2023/

Yes. Nelson Cruz on a 1 year deal is the only guy they've spent on since winning

Schwarber?

[Slateman]

If Gore, Gray, Abrams, etc remain ok, but not great, and the other guys come along too slowly, there's no stars to trade away anymore, then what happens?

Washington Wizards

Not with Haas and Ciolek here. We'll have lots of young guys coming up through the system.

[Senatorswin]

They have drafted and developed their own players poorly, no question about that.

[HalfSmokes]

Schwarber?

1 year $10 million. Real commitment to wi Ning with that deal

[JCA-CrystalCity]

1 year $10 million. Real commitment to wi Ning with that deal

they won't even do that for Rosario or Pederson now.

[HondoKillebrew]

They have drafted and developed their own players poorly, no question about that.

So disappointing.

[OfftheBat]

Ouch:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-poke-the-washington-nationals-with-a-stick-to-see-if-theyre-still-alive/

"It’d take franchise-altering investment from some petrostate’s sovereign wealth fund, or some similarly well-heeled new owner, to put the Nats back on track anytime soon. "

Nice little wink at Leonsis & the Qataris lol

Speaking of which, I wonder if 2024 will be the year when the Lerners will sell....

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Absolutely a poke at the inertia and situation on the sale. It's how Baumann writes

[zimm_da_kid]

I would love Alonso next offseason to pit with the young guys coming up

[IanRubbish]

I would love Alonso next offseason to pit with the young guys coming up

Boras wants $200m-$250m+ for him.  Boras has expressed disappointment with recent 1B contracts and wants to use Alonso to reset the market for them, just as he does with Soto for all players.

[zimm_da_kid]

Boras wants $200m-$250m+ for him.  Boras has expressed disappointment with recent 1B contracts and wants to use Alonso to reset the market for them, just as he does with Soto for all players.

That sounds reasonable with the nl dh spot.  I’d imagine he could move to DH around the time wood gets to pushing 260

[Smithian]

Ouch:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-poke-the-washington-nationals-with-a-stick-to-see-if-theyre-still-alive/

What a horribly depressing read. I've tuned out this offseason and then was thinking, "I need to catch up on what's happened, I'm totally out of the know."

Nope, they've done nothing.

I am okay with Rizzo and Martinez. Martinez is fine as a manager and doing a good job from keeping the mood from being totally depressing. I give Rizzo a lot of blame for how things got stale under the hood beofre the car came to a stop after 2019, but since then it is seems like a lot of good moves have been made. But they can't make major moves without ownership settled and it shows. This lack of ability to plan further than the trade deadline has to do deep tissue damage to a club.

The Commanders went through one ownership limbo offseason and it felt gross, even if they brought in Bieniemy and tried to do things around the edges. The Nationals can't. The top of our pitching staff is not good, but it would look really nice as a midrotation. The top and middle of our lineup is gross. It would would look pretty nice bottom of the order or bench.

Can't imagine the Lerners are having fun owning his team now. I always read about European soccer clubs that go through ownership apathy and how it just crushes a supporter base, and I would be glad the USA franchise model avoids that except for the most extreme circumstance. Well, the Nationals are that extreme circumstance.

And I am also furious because I know, if he Nats are ever sold, the new owner will just come in and hold a gun to the head of Washington, D.C. and complain about the stadium while talking about how Nashville, TN is a great place in summer.

[Smithian]

"It’d take franchise-altering investment from some petrostate’s sovereign wealth fund, or some similarly well-heeled new owner, to put the Nats back on track anytime soon. "

Nice little wink at Leonsis & the Qataris lol

Speaking of which, I wonder if 2024 will be the year when the Lerners will sell....

Said it before... If the Caps and Wiz became the Qatari club, I will be fine letting them be Virginia's problem and not DC's.

[Mattionals]

What a horribly depressing read. I've tuned out this offseason and then was thinking, "I need to catch up on what's happened, I'm totally out of the know."

Nope, they've done nothing.

I am okay with Rizzo and Martinez. Martinez is fine as a manager and doing a good job from keeping the mood from being totally depressing. I give Rizzo a lot of blame for how things got stale under the hood beofre the car came to a stop after 2019, but since then it is seems like a lot of good moves have been made. But they can't make major moves without ownership settled and it shows. This lack of ability to plan further than the trade deadline has to do deep tissue damage to a club.

The Commanders went through one ownership limbo offseason and it felt gross, even if they brought in Bieniemy and tried to do things around the edges. The Nationals can't. The top of our pitching staff is not good, but it would look really nice as a midrotation. The top and middle of our lineup is gross. It would would look pretty nice bottom of the order or bench.

Can't imagine the Lerners are having fun owning his team now. I always read about European soccer clubs that go through ownership apathy and how it just crushes a supporter base, and I would be glad the USA franchise model avoids that except for the most extreme circumstance. Well, the Nationals are that extreme circumstance.

And I am also furious because I know, if he Nats are ever sold, the new owner will just come in and hold a gun to the head of Washington, D.C. and complain about the stadium while talking about how Nashville, TN is a great place in summer.

If Leonsis is the new owner, I doubt he threatens to leave the area. Also, Nats park is 10 years newer than CapOne, so I'd say at least another ten years before he would cry fowl about wanting a new stadium.
Honestly, I think the reason the team hasn't sold is because the Lerner family has one true bidder, and he won't up his bid. Leonsis will be the guy, and only once the crippling MASN issue is sorted out. I think he'd be fine taking on the amount of "dead contract weight" owed to many players as long as he can put the Nats on his network. Barring that issue being alleviated, the Nats are stuck with the current ownership.