2023-24 Off-Season Discussion

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He's in no budget and no tradable assets mode

This is part of what got me on the 2008/2009 offseason tangent. Bowden managed to spin Emilio Bonifacio and two guys who I don't think ever saw the majors into Willingham and Olsen because he was willing to pick up just $13 million. It's not the tradeable assets question. It's the unprecedented short budget to spend on talent. Just $4 million in commitments to Floro and Senzel. We committed more than that to just Candelario last year, without even talking about Edwards, Williams, and Dickerson.

[Senatorswin]

Back in the 2008 to 2010 days were there minor leaguers coming up with promise? I don't remember.

If they signed a third baseman or first baseman this off-season would that player be blocking a Morales or House? After the September Garcia had do they want to see what he can do this year once and for all? They have outfielders coming up, do they want to wait and see which ones, if any, come through.

We know Gore and Gray are in the rotation. Cavalli will be back at some point. I suppose they want to see what Rutledge and Irvin can do. Do they want to give Corbin a spot and hope to flip him at the deadline to open a spot for Cole Henry, Jake Bennett, DJ Herz, or Mitchell Parker?

Maybe this wasn't the offseason to sign anybody. If we should of, or should sign, somebody out there, who is the one or ones we should of gone after?

[imref]

Talknats:

At  @BetMGM they have the #Nats 2024 wins total set at 65.5 on the Over/Under. For an FYI,  FanGraphs is at 67.

Sigh..

[Senatorswin]

Fanduel has the over/under at 65.5. I lost the over/under on the Commanders win total so maybe I'll double down and bet the over on the Nats.

The Dodgers are at 104.5. Tempting to bet the under.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Back in the 2008 to 2010 days were there minor leaguers coming up with promise? I don't remember.

If they signed a third baseman or first baseman this off-season would that player be blocking a Morales or House? After the September Garcia had do they want to see what he can do this year once and for all? They have outfielders coming up, do they want to wait and see which ones, if any, come through.

We know Gore and Gray are in the rotation. Cavalli will be back at some point. I suppose they want to see what Rutledge and Irvin can do. Do they want to give Corbin a spot and hope to flip him at the deadline to open a spot for Cole Henry, Jake Bennett, DJ Herz, or Mitchell Parker?

Maybe this wasn't the offseason to sign anybody. If we should of, or should sign, somebody out there, who is the one or ones we should of gone after?

we could sign an OF/1b/dh on a 1-2 year deal and not really block anyone. could also sign a starting pitcher if we are willing to put Williams in the bullpen, where there's room.

[aspenbubba]

Talknats:
Sigh..

A couple of days ago I predicted 65 wins maybe. Didn’t use analytics either.

[IanRubbish]

we could sign an OF/1b/dh on a 1-2 year deal and not really block anyone. could also sign a starting pitcher if we are willing to put Williams in the bullpen, where there's room.

Rizzo's going to want Williams to start in order to make him more valuable at the deadline. 

Re: win total, I'd take the under on 65.5.  Four years in a row of giving up 5+ runs per game and doubtful that streak in broken in '24. 

[imref]

Cavalli should be back in June to take Williams’ spot.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rizzo's going to want Williams to start in order to make him more valuable at the deadline. 
 

I wonder, though. He was a very effective reliever with the Mets the year before we got him, maybe even longer than that. If a contender is looking for a starter down the stretch, it's usually a guy who can start in the playoffs. Williams is more a backend guy at  best. Contenders always are looking for bullpen upgrades. I think his market might be better if he bounces back to pre-Nats reliever form than if he is just a back-end starter.

[raleighnat]

we could sign an OF/1b/dh on a 1-2 year deal and not really block anyone. could also sign a starting pitcher if we are willing to put Williams in the bullpen, where there's room.

This offseason, while not done, has the makings of an embarrassment.  There is no reason not to invest in 2 year players.  This team is going to be terrible.  I don’t get it.  It is important to field a decent team - if below average team.  Sucking like they are going to suck is horrible for the franchise and also unnecessary.   

[Slateman]

Im sorry, what 2 year deals did we miss out on? There are no players we were going to sign that would prevent this team from losing 90 games. Either Abrams, Ruiz, Gore, and Gray are going to be good major leaguers or not. Lucas Gioliti, IKF,  or Hunter Renfroe arent changing that.

The team sucking will have zero impact on the franchise in 2025. The only thing that is going to have an impact is going to be the Lerners selling.

Just be happy that Rizzo hired Brad Ciolek and Danny Haas. We actually might have some decent talent in a couple years, after the Lerners sell.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Im sorry, what 2 year deals did we miss out on? There are no players we were going to sign that would prevent this team from losing 90 games. Either Abrams, Ruiz, Gore, and Gray are going to be good major leaguers or not. Lucas Gioliti, IKF,  or Hunter Renfroe arent changing that.

The team sucking will have zero impact on the franchise in 2025. The only thing that is going to have an impact is going to be the Lerners selling.

Just be happy that Rizzo hired Brad Ciolek and Danny Haas. We actually might have some decent talent in a couple years, after the Lerners sell.

I seriously doubt any of the lefty power bats below Bellinger and are going to sign for more than 2 years. Even Hoskins now will want to reset his market and is going to sign for a year and some combo of player and team options. We may still sign one, but if we don't, that is a blown chance at at least making this team more enjoyable to watch like

As for pitchers, I probably would have selectively lined up a vet contributor who would be a 2 on an average team and a 1 on this staff. Iminaga of course signed a pretty good contract, but of course Rizzo won't sign an NPB player. If I couldn't get that, maybe take a flyer on Mike Lorenzen or Clevinger or Paxton who could be flipped.

[Natsinpwc]

Hoskins would make the most sense.  Power bat but righty.  Give him $20 million a year for two years and that will probably exceed other offers.  A bit of an overpay but not my moneys. Can platoon between 1B and DH with Joey and some Kiebert mixed in. Could be a valuable asset at the trade deadline. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

while I'm a bit exasperated at the failure to plug some obvious gaps in the 2024 line up with some short term deals that could be flipped if they are playing well and it otherwise makes sense, I cling to the hope that there's more moves coming closer to and by the early stages of spring training. Rizzo may be letting the market come to him rather than chase guys.

[HalfSmokes]

Hoskins would make the most sense.  Power bat but righty.  Give him $20 million a year for two years and that will probably exceed other offers.  A bit of an overpay but not my moneys. Can platoon between 1B and DH with Joey and some Kiebert mixed in. Could be a valuable asset at the trade deadline. 

Look at the team's salaries https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/ We have two guys making above $10 million and both of those contracts were signed in pursuit of the ring the Lerners already have. I see no reason to believe that the Lerners are willing to spend more than the bare minimum now that they have their championship.

[imref]

There's still a lot of chatter linking him to the Cubs, but Hoskins is the ideal fit for this team. I agree that it would be nice to be able to plug him in for a year or two as a possible bridge to YoYo or a competitive 2025.

That would give you a lineup of:
1. Abrams, SS
2. Thomas, RF
3. Hoskins, DH
4. Ruiz, C
5. Meneses, 1B
6. Garcia, 2B
7. Garrett, LF
8. Senzel, 3B
9. Robles, CF

That's not terrible (and it assumes Crews doesn't break camp with the team)

[imref]

Look at the team's salaries https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/ We have two guys making above $10 million and both of those contracts were signed in pursuit of the ring the Lerners already have. I see no reason to believe that the Lerners are willing to spend more than the bare minimum now that they have their championship.

I really want to hope that Rizzo conditioned signing his extension on a commitment by ownership to invest in fielding a competitive team.

[IanRubbish]

I really want to hope that Rizzo conditioned signing his extension on a commitment by ownership to invest in fielding a competitive team.

Unfortunately, doubt that was the case. 

However, speed is cheap.  The team could at least try to get more SBs by getting Jacob Young more time in CF, and who also improves the defense.  He's no worse at the plate with Robles with more upside potential.  And Keibert was the most run on/worst throwout % catcher in MLB last year.  If his D doesn't improve, he can only play there sporadically, especially with his bat being useless due to remarkably weak contact.   Moreover, Drew Millas has had incredibly strong BB/K rates in his minors career and deserves a deeper look at C.   Additionally, Darren Baker gives you more speed at 2B than Luis Garcia and a comparable bat.  Add in the fact that the org is way too high on Joey Meneses, and you could rotate James Wood or Lane Thomas to 1B and DH and get even more speed. 

If you're not going to pressure pitchers and defense with power, you can at least pressure them with speed.  Moreover, speed erodes earlier than power or patience so you don't have to worry about re-signing guys to big contracts when they're pushing 30. 

[Natsinpwc]

Look at the team's salaries https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/ We have two guys making above $10 million and both of those contracts were signed in pursuit of the ring the Lerners already have. I see no reason to believe that the Lerners are willing to spend more than the bare minimum now that they have their championship.

Agree.  Just throwing it out there who might fit.   

[IanRubbish]

Look at the team's salaries https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/ We have two guys making above $10 million and both of those contracts were signed in pursuit of the ring the Lerners already have. I see no reason to believe that the Lerners are willing to spend more than the bare minimum now that they have their championship.

They put the championship team on a credit card with payments for the rest of the decade.  And much of the spending was due to Boras convincing the old man to take Werth and Max, not to mention getting him to overpay for short-term deals for Pudge Rodriguez, Rick Ankiel, Matt Weiters, etc.  Boras has this thing about being a press conferences, and he manipulated Mini Me into appearing at the Dylan Crews signing.  I'm sure in a couple years Boras will be the one person who can convince this weak and dysfunctional ownership group to spend.

[imref]

Ouch:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-poke-the-washington-nationals-with-a-stick-to-see-if-theyre-still-alive/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Ouch:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-poke-the-washington-nationals-with-a-stick-to-see-if-theyre-still-alive/

And it's a Baumann article!



Hard to argue with any aspect of Baumann's analysis. One thing he points out is that even the MLB average quick to the majors guys we acquired (he lumps Abrams in here with Ruiz, Thomas, Gore, and Gray) are not under team control long enough to overlap significantly with the expected wave of Wood, Crews, House, and Morales.

Reminds me a bit of the Carol Burnett Show closing song:

I'm so glad we had this time together
Just to have a laugh, or sing a song.
Seems we just got started
and before you know it
Comes the time we have
to say, 'So long.'

https://www.smule.com/song/joe-hamilton-im-so-glad-we-had-this-time-together-karaoke-lyrics/15668804_505658/arrangement

Thomas's team control ends 2025, the other 4 end in 2027. If you are a rosey scenario type, that means we need 4 guys who had less than a full season in AA (other than Wood, none more than a month or so) to hit the majors by end of 2024 in order to have 3 years overlap with the 4 of the 5 acquired regulars on the current team. In that scenario, the absolute best case is, if that happens, then whoever owns the club springs for an ace starter.

[Mattionals]

Ouch:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-poke-the-washington-nationals-with-a-stick-to-see-if-theyre-still-alive/

There is a comment on there that basically sums up how I think many of us feel (and maybe one of us wrote it). The team is being sold. Ownership isn't going to invest on anything other than low tier upgrades until the team is sold (don't devalue the long term product by increasing incumbent costs). MASN is a huge hurdle to the sale. Get rid of MASN, the team sells, and the new owner(s) can do what they please.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Brian Reinhart's post about the horrible development history is spot on, too.

[aspenbubba]

Look at the team's salaries https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/ We have two guys making above $10 million and both of those contracts were signed in pursuit of the ring the Lerners already have. I see no reason to believe that the Lerners are willing to spend more than the bare minimum now that they have their championship.

Does your theory hold when you compare what they spent last year to this year?