2023 Won-Lost Record Prediction

[Senatorswin]

With the team heading north it's prediction time.

61-101

[catocony]

65-97

[HalfSmokes]

57-105

[Natsinpwc]

65-97

I was going to go with that. But will go one higher. 66-96. They should benefit a bit from not having to play the NL East big three so much but both the starting pitching and hitting look rough.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

63-99. 65-97 sounded good, but I figure I will be happy and consider it progress if the Nats avoid 100 losses

[imref]

67-95

[zimm_da_kid]

71-91

[Natsinpwc]

71-91

Oh you cockeyed optimist!

[comish4lif]

66-96
Bad, but not as bad as expected.

[IanRubbish]

68-94

The offense will be about the same as last year, but I expect some improvement in pitching and defense.  I'll go with 600 runs scored, 740 against, and 2-3 games extra luck to get to 68 wins.

Lessening the pain will be low scores and the pitch clock which should keep a lot of games in the 2-2.5 hour range. 

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

62-100

Though I think we are going to do better than expected against the Mets and Phillies.  Blame the WBC?

[aspenbubba]

64-98. I did not want to replicate others choices and at this point I had to choose between 69-93 and 64-98. I feel 69 wins is just too optimistic.

[nobleisthyname]

64-98. I did not want to replicate others choices and at this point I had to choose between 69-93 and 64-98. I feel 69 wins is just too optimistic.

I'll take the 69-93. Basically same reasoning as IanRubbish but 67 and 68 wins were already taken.

[aspenbubba]

I'll take the 69-93. Basically same reasoning as IanRubbish but 67 and 68 wins were already taken.

OK but we split the grand prize. Fair enough?

[Natsinpwc]

OK but we split the grand prize. Fair enough?

Grand prize is tickets to a Nats game. Second prize is tickets to two Nats games. Etc.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I'll go with 60-102.

[nobleisthyname]

OK but we split the grand prize. Fair enough?

Grand prize is tickets to a Nats game. Second prize is tickets to two Nats games. Etc.

 

[captkirk42]

I always like to say an even 81-81 split BUT I realize that ain't happening anytime soon. Still I want to feel like we are winning. I'll up the optimism to:
75-87

I also hope we finish at least at 3rd place in the division, anything but last place. OK?

[GburgNatsFan]

74-86 (two September rained-out games unplayed due to lack of interest and a resurgence of a more deadly COVID strain).

[Count Walewski]

I'll take 57-104 with one rained out game not being rescheduled.

I'm hoping for one last 100-loss season and a good draft pick. No reason to cheer for a mediocre
outcome.

[IanRubbish]

I also hope we finish at least at 3rd place in the division, anything but last place. OK?

The Marlins have the worst lineup I can remember and Jazz Chisholm is on the 60 day IL.   I'm hopeful for 4th.

[nobleisthyname]

I'll take 57-104 with one rained out game not being rescheduled.

I'm hoping for one last 100-loss season and a good draft pick. No reason to cheer for a mediocre
outcome.

With the new draft lottery rules we can't pick better than 7th next year (or 10th, the rules are confusing).

[IanRubbish]

With the new draft lottery rules we can't pick better than 7th next year (or 10th, the rules are confusing).

If we pay into revenue sharing, then we can't be in the lottery two years in a row, which would mean at best a 7th pick in '24.  If we pay in, we can have a second lottery pick in '24, but not again in '25. 

The lottery is pick 1-6, and once you get past those six picks, its reverse order by worst winning percentage among the 12 remaining non-playoff teams.  So likely outcome being the 2nd or 3rd worst team overall in '24 would be a pick between 7 and 9.  So you're basically right, and makes this year's tank even more ridiculous.

[nobleisthyname]

Thank you for breaking that down, that's the first time it's made sense to me.

[Mattionals]

Thank you for breaking that down, that's the first time it's made sense to me.

Agreed. This actually makes it seem, uh, dare I say, a good thing? This really incentivizes NOT tanking. I know the draft is a crapshoot, but automatically being dropped to 7th is a good reason to try and do better. I think this should apply to teams who do get revenue sharing funds as well, because, as we now have seen, teams that just suck off the proverbial revenue sharing teat would rather just NOT get better.