With the new draft lottery rules we can't pick better than 7th next year (or 10th, the rules are confusing).
If we pay into revenue sharing, then we can't be in the lottery two years in a row, which would mean at best a 7th pick in '24. If we pay in, we can have a second lottery pick in '24, but not again in '25.
The lottery is pick 1-6, and once you get past those six picks, its reverse order by worst winning percentage among the 12 remaining non-playoff teams. So likely outcome being the 2nd or 3rd worst team overall in '24 would be a pick between 7 and 9. So you're basically right, and makes this year's tank even more ridiculous.
