https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2023-top-100-prospects/this one is a list spit out by one of FGs projection systems, ZiPS by Dan Szymborski (or something close to that). His projections are exclusively a massive number crunching exercise where ZiPS predicts future WAR based on numbers so far. As DS puts it
ZiPS is a useful tool, but the projections, whether for prospects or for baseball as a whole, are not intended to replace scouting. The purpose of ZiPS is to get the best answers possible from the data available, not necessarily to be the one-ring-to-prove-them-all-unified-field-theory-giant-Katamari-Damacy-ball of prognostication. ZiPS doesn’t see some things that scouts do. But by being able to process large amounts of data and instantly put those numbers into context and make adjustments, ZiPS also sees some things that scouts can’t. Computers and humans have different strengths, after all.
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Naturally, there is a lot of agreement between ZiPS and other lists when it comes to top prospects. Elite prospects tend to please both the scouts and the silicon, and 68 of this year’s ZiPS Top 100 overlap with the official FanGraphs Top 100. The ZiPS list should be used in addition to other lists, not in a mutually exclusive fashion.
I’ve adjusted the methodology of the rankings slightly, going with the interquartile mean for career WAR rather than the 50th percentile projection. That’s because, with the benefit of hindsight, it consistently slightly outperforms the 50th percentile rankings (though none of the actual rankings will be retconned for the ZiPS Cinematic Universe). ZiPS will still have a tendency to like high-floor, low-ceiling players more than scouts do. This is understandable given the nature of projections; scouts are optimistic by nature, traveling to Hagerstown or Kannapolis to see something special, not just to find a useful fourth outfielder or innings-eating fourth starter.
Based on that description, you'd expect guys who have hit the majors and seem like they will stick or expected call ups to rank ahead of guys who are further away with jaw-dropping potential due to their tools. So, it is little surprise that, even with FGs rep for being data oriented, this list looks a lot different than the evaluation yesterday, especially w/r/t the toolsy A ballers in our system, and even worse if the A baller missed time due to injury. Youd also expect to see a few of the players who aren't thought of as keys to the future but likely to get some time show up. And you'd be right, because you are pretty insightful.
The Nats who make ZiPS top 100:
42. Robert Hassell III
55. James Wood
62. Cade Cavalli
Cavalli is same spot on both lists, but yes, the big riser is Hassell, House and Green disappear, and there's a big "hold on a bit" on Wood.
Some names appear as you go by position.
Pineda is the #10 catcher.
No surprise infield prospects for Alu fans (He's not there).
Hassell is #7 OF, Wood #10. Wood is due an explanation:
The most notable projection here may be how low Nats outfielder James Wood ranks. In this case, ZiPS is designed to be skeptical about players with little minor league time — and completely agnostic about high schoolers yet to debut — and it’s actually fairly impressive that he ranks this highly. If all goes well, Wood has an easy path to the ZiPS overall top 10 in 2024. That is, if he doesn’t blow through the minors quickly; the Nats were certainly willing to give Juan Soto a chance very, very quickly, and if he continues to hit like this, it’ll be hard to not use Wood similarly.
Cavalli is the #16 pitcher; no others in the top 30. I have a feeling that would be different but for Henry's TOS.
