Author Topic: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings 2023  (Read 7229 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline imref

  • Moderator
  • ***
  • Posts: 42504
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
And yet another top 100 list: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35490487/top-100-mlb-prospects-list-2023-kiley-mcdaniel

#13: James Wood
#57: Robert Hassell III
#69: Cade Cavalli
#85: Jarlen Susana

Green and House are on the "remaining 50 FV-grade prospects" outside the top 100.

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
That’s strange how much lower they are on green than everybody else.

2023 will be big for him.  Let’s see how he does with the avg and k rate in low a

Offline DCsOwn

  • Posts: 599
  • Another New Hope
From the K Law chat:

Andrew: Thanks for doing these! The Nationals have struggled to have a good farm system and to produce any meaningful talent outside of Soto in years. Is that due to bad scouting, bad developmental coaching, bad investment (in resources) or bad luck?

Keith Law: Biggest reason was that they traded and graduated a lot of guys to build the WS winner, and then didn’t backfill well due to weaker drafts and very little from IFAs after Soto. I think they’re on the right track again, and now they’re not trading prospects, but stockpiling them.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25668
From the K Law chat:

Andrew: Thanks for doing these! The Nationals have struggled to have a good farm system and to produce any meaningful talent outside of Soto in years. Is that due to bad scouting, bad developmental coaching, bad investment (in resources) or bad luck?

Keith Law: Biggest reason was that they traded and graduated a lot of guys to build the WS winner, and then didn’t backfill well due to weaker drafts and very little from IFAs after Soto. I think they’re on the right track again, and now they’re not trading prospects, but stockpiling them.
Great non answer to the question.

Offline imref

  • Moderator
  • ***
  • Posts: 42504
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Keith Law's Nats top-20:

James Wood, OF
Elijah Green, OF
Robert Hassell, OF
Cade Cavalli, RHP
Brady House, IF
Jarlin Susana, RHP
Cole Henry, RHP
Crithian Vaquero, OF
Jeremy De La Rosa, OF
Jake Bennett, LHP
Jake Irvin, RHP
Jackson Rutledge, RHP
Armando Cruz, SS
Andry Lara, RHP
Roismar Quintana, OF
Jeter Downs, 2B
Daylen Lile, OF
T.J. White, OF
Jake Alu, UT
Jose Ferrer, LHP

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 1750
I'm not sure how a guy who can't even hit .200 can be rated higher than Alu who has hit at multiple levels.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
I'm not sure how a guy who can't even hit .200 can be rated higher than Alu who has hit at multiple levels.
For the same reason Jake Noll isnt on the list at all

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25668
I'm not sure how a guy who can't even hit .200 can be rated higher than Alu who has hit at multiple levels.
You have to consider that Law and other guys who do these rankings have been evaluating these players for years. So they are just like the teams that draft some of the duds. They don’t want to give up on them. And conversely they don’t want to rank guys high who far exceeded their expectations in terms of actual performance. One reason to not take the rankings too seriously. 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39378
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
the idea on Downs is that his problem is an identified hole (high velocity) that has been mercilessly exploited but, if fixed, his power and other tools will let him take off.  With respect to Alu, they think he's hit his maximum and it isn't likely to be good enough in the majors.  I don't buy it, and I think that Alu is much more likely to succeed, but nobody is paying me to evaluate talent I have not seen (and would not know what I was seeing even if I saw it).

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
the idea on Downs is that his problem is an identified hole (high velocity) that has been mercilessly exploited but, if fixed, his power and other tools will let him take off.  With respect to Alu, they think he's hit his maximum and it isn't likely to be good enough in the majors.  I don't buy it, and I think that Alu is much more likely to succeed, but nobody is paying me to evaluate talent I have not seen (and would not know what I was seeing even if I saw it).

The flaw with that idea is that it's really hard to teach guys to hit fastballs, especially if it's a big hole.  With him, it's not like he has trouble getting around on fastballs on his hands or getting his hands out to hard stuff away.  He has trouble with fastballs up, anywhere.  And there aren't many major league pitchers now who can't just pump high fastballs if you tell them that's what they need to do. 

But the big gap between the two prospects above is defense.  One is likely to be a decent shortstop.  The other might be able to handle third base with some luck.  That's an enormous gulf in terms of defensive value.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 2709
But the big gap between the two prospects above is defense.  One is likely to be a decent shortstop.  The other might be able to handle third base with some luck.  That's an enormous gulf in terms of defensive value.

Isn't Alu supposed to be a defensive wizard at third?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39378
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Isn't Alu supposed to be a defensive wizard at third?
I thought he was drafted for d and the offense is the surprise?

Offline imref

  • Moderator
  • ***
  • Posts: 42504
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Prospectslive.com top 50 has four Nats:
8. JAMES WOOD, OF
42. ROBERT HASSELL III, OF
45. ELIJAH GREEN, OF
49. CADE CAVALLI, RHP

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2023-preseason-top-100-prospects-list

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39378
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
I know Elvir is a skeptic and thinks it is just obsession with the Aaron Judge body type, but there's a lot of people on the Wood train. It's unfair a bit, he's 3 years younger than judge when he played in A ball, but Wood had nearly 1:1 BB:K in SD's system over about the same # of PAs as Judge at that level.  Wood's first 93 PAs in Fredericksburg brought that back a bit, but his SD line held up pretty well in comparison to Judge (wRC+ 168 vs 167, with ~.100 better unadjusted OPS). And he's 3 years younger.

I also think FG's top 100 is coming out today.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39378
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
so . . . FG drops its updated top 100.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/
#3.  Wood
63. Cavalli
92. Green
96. House
112. Hassell (?)  - they ranked all guys with FV of 50 or higher.  Hassell was the last to make the cut.

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
I like that fangraphs marches to its own beat.  They look at stats above all

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39378
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
excerpting the brief summaries from FG.  Longer excerpts from the full ones can be put in player pages, with link.  Please respect the copywrite and don't over-excerpt.

Wood -
Quote
Wood compares to a young Adam Dunn as a power-hitting outfielder of considerable size.
  So, the Dunn comparison emerges due to his size, but the write up says that still is enough bat to play 1B/DH, and that is the downside. Critical of his first few strides but loves his make up speed in the field and out of the batter's box. Could even be a plus defender in center.   
Cavalli -
Quote
Cavalli has a huge arm and a good changeup, but also carries a considerable amount of relief risk due to past injury and his violent delivery.
  This reads like a phone in from last year, but with a lower ranking I think.
Green -
Quote
See: Wiemer, Joey
- Wiemer is #91. The write up is:
Quote
Wiemer is a power/speed freak who might bust or be a power-hitting anomaly.
House -
Quote
Healthy House has huge power. He was hurt in 2022.
Hassell -
Quote
Hassell’s performance tanked after the Juan Soto trade, and he broke his hamate in Arizona after the regular season. He’s now a bounce back prospect.

Offline imref

  • Moderator
  • ***
  • Posts: 42504
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
not impressed with the analysis. Hassell was hitting well at AA toward the end of the year - .293 / .379 / .397 in September. Yes, he struggled early after the trade, but the idea that he's a "bounce-back" prospect is silly.

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5732
not impressed with the analysis. Hassell was hitting well at AA toward the end of the year - .293 / .379 / .397 in September. Yes, he struggled early after the trade, but the idea that he's a "bounce-back" prospect is silly.


I think I've had enough prospect rankings and I'm more interested in results and scouting reports. Wood being third overall is a stretch, and Hassell being number 112 is lame considering he has a higher floor than lots of the prospects ahead of him on that list.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
so . . . FG drops its updated top 100.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/
#3.  Wood
63. Cavalli
92. Green
96. House
112. Hassell (?)  - they ranked all guys with FV of 50 or higher.  Hassell was the last to make the cut.
I liked the part where the guy who has spent his whole career in CF and has 80 grade speed with 60/70 grade field gets listed as a LF, but the dude with the 30/45 field grade is somehow a CFer

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39378
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
I liked the part where the guy who has spent his whole career in CF and has 80 grade speed with 60/70 grade field gets listed as a LF, but the dude with the 30/45 field grade is somehow a CFer

The thinking on Carroll:
Quote
His speed makes him a defensive fit in center field but a lack of arm strength and the presence of young Alek Thomas in Arizona will likely push Carroll to left, where he might be the game’s best defender at that position.

I guess the low opinion of Hassell, plus the reality of Robles, leads the writers to think there's nothing blocking him there if he can play the position.  It's more a complement to Thomas than a knock on Carroll or a preference for Wood in CF.

Comments in the writers' chat suggest real skepticism about Hassell. Regardless of the September numbers, he says his bat looked very slow at the end of the year.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
The thinking on Carroll:
I guess the low opinion of Hassell, plus the reality of Robles, leads the writers to think there's nothing blocking him there if he can play the position.  It's more a complement to Thomas than a knock on Carroll or a preference for Wood in CF.
Its freaking dumb thinking. Oh his arm is weak. His speed makes him a gold glove caliber defender in CF.

If I play Keibert Ruiz in CF, that doesn't make him a CFer.

Quote
Comments in the writers' chat suggest real skepticism about Hassell. Regardless of the September numbers, he says his bat looked very slow at the end of the year.

Oh what happened to Bobby Barrels? Big surprise. In three years, when Wood, Gore, and Hassell are all busts, I really hope the Lerners have the balls to fire Rizzo for this debacle.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25668
Its freaking dumb thinking. Oh his arm is weak. His speed makes him a gold glove caliber defender in CF.

If I play Keibert Ruiz in CF, that doesn't make him a CFer.

Oh what happened to Bobby Barrels? Big surprise. In three years, when Wood, Gore, and Hassell are all busts, I really hope the Lerners have the balls to fire Rizzo for this debacle.
You’re such a cockeyed optimist.

One will be a bust.  One half decent.  And another very good. Kind of like the three little pigs.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
You’re such a cockeyed optimist.

One will be a bust.  One half decent.  And another very good. Kind of like the three little pigs.
The half decent one will be Abrams. Gore will flame out as a starter, go somewhere else, and become an elite reliever. Hassell will be the good one. Good as in .270/.320/.360 and play good defense.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 2709
Hassell gives me Nick Markakis vibes. Good at making contact but otherwise a light hitter who plays average defense in a corner outfield spot.

Which would honestly be a great outcome.