Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings 2023

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Alu that far below De La Rosa? BBA seems to devalue distance to the majors and rank more on upside potential when comparing a lower minors toolsie guy to a guy who is close to the majors but less wow. Compare Alu to De La Rosa, for example. Even by that standard, Millas looks low.

As for pitchers, relievers don't have much value to them. Explains Ferrer, who is #4 in the MLB bullpen now. 7 out of the 8 guys they project as starters are ahead of Ferrer. I think they view Henry properly as having a lot of reliever risk now, and given their view of relievers, knock him down.

[nobleisthyname]

Also keep in mind how much better the farm system is now. Number 25 was orobably number 10 a couple years ago. Or higher.

I didn't think it would be done so quickly. Pretty impressive on Rizzo's part.

[Lazarchick 31]

Yikes. Those new rankings make the return for Candy look effing terrible.

[Slateman]

I didn't think it would be done so quickly. Pretty impressive on Rizzo's part.

I mean, we traded away the best shortstop in baseball and two HoFers.

[Slateman]

Yikes. Those new rankings make the return for Candy look effing terrible.

You got two top of your top 20 prospects for two months of Candelario. How is that terrible?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yikes. Those new rankings make the return for Candy look effing terrible.

on the other hand, the Fangraphs review of the value we added in trade to what was already in our system after the draft estimated those two players' future value at $10 million, which was enough to bump the value in our farm from 6th to 3rd.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-the-draft-and-the-trade-deadline-affected-our-farm-system-rankings/

they have us as adding the 5th most value of any team just by doing that one trade. We are behind the Mets, white Sox, cleveland, and St. L in terms of value added through trades.

FG has Made as our 12th best prospect and Herz at #18.

I'm not saying BBA or FG is right or wrong. Rather, I'm saying it's not the best approach to treat one source as gospel. Law, McDaniel, BP, FG, and BBA probably all should be looked at before we say we did well or blew it.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You got two top of your top 20 prospects for two months of Candelario. How is that terrible?

think he's yikesing at BBA's view, which has just Herz in the top 30 and pretty low in that.

[imref]

Rizzo has accomplished his mission to rebuild the farm system in very quick time. Now lets see some of the guys pan out and make it to the majors.

[Natsinpwc]

Rizzo has accomplished his mission to rebuild the farm system in very quick time. Now lets see some of the guys pan out and make it to the majors.

Mission accomplished!  Took lots of strategery to get there.

[nobleisthyname]

I mean, we traded away the best shortstop in baseball and two HoFers.

Most of that return is not included in these rankings. Just Wood, Hassell, and Susana. And of those three only Wood is the blue-chip prospect pushing the Nats up the ranks.

[imref]

Most of that return is not included in these rankings. Just Wood, Hassell, and Susana. And of those three only Wood is the blue-chip prospect pushing the Nats up the ranks.

true, but blowing up the team did net us Crews ands Morales.

[Natsinpwc]

true, but blowing up the team did net us Crews ands Morales.

And House.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Using the FG numbers, the system is thin but top-heavy. $159 million in the top 4 (Crews, Wood, House, Cavalli), $175 million value in the top 6 (Morales, Vacquero), 35 players total valued at 35+.

[nobleisthyname]

And House.

House was actually before the blowup (2021 deadline). He was our pick from finishing last in 2020.

[imref]

wRC+ (min 40 PAs)

D. Crews (A) 193
A. Pinckney (A) 190
Y. Morales (A) 166
M. Romero Jr. (A) 145
M. Stehly (A+) 139
J. Mota (ROK) 139
E. Cooper III (ROK) 138
T. Lipscomb (AA) 135
B. House (AA) 135
J. Cluff (AA) 123

[JCA-CrystalCity]

wRC+ (min 40 PAs)

D. Crews (A) 193
A. Pinckney (A) 190
Y. Morales (A) 166
M. Romero Jr. (A) 145
M. Stehly (A+) 139
J. Mota (ROK) 139
E. Cooper III (ROK) 138
T. Lipscomb (AA) 135
B. House (AA) 135
J. Cluff (AA) 123

Cluff?  Are those full season number or just a recent hot streak?

Looks like he's taking his walks and is slugging.  .213 / .376 ( ) / .415. 7 HRs, which is more than last year at AA in half the appearances. 20 XBH among his 39 hits. 13 for 17 in SBs, too. Still strikes out too darn much (over 25% of the PAs).

[imref]

Cluff?  Are those full season number or just a recent hot streak?

Looks like he's taking his walks and is slugging.  .213 / .376 ( ) / .415. 7 HRs, which is more than last year at AA in half the appearances. 20 XBH among his 39 hits. 13 for 17 in SBs, too. Still strikes out too darn much (over 25% of the PAs).

at current level

https://twitter.com/NatsFarm/status/1691077919546728448?s=20

[imref]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings

They've got us at 8, up from 10 at the beginning of the year. It seems kind of crazy that we only moved up 2 spots after adding Crews, Morales, and Sykora.

[Natsinpwc]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings

They've got us at 8, up from 10 at the beginning of the year. It seems kind of crazy that we only moved up 2 spots after adding Crews, Morales, and Sykora.

All the experts love everyone’s picks.  Until some start failing. I think there are some other places that have the Nats rated higher. The important thing is that they have five or six guys who look like fairly certain contributors. In the end the rankings don’t mean much.

[Natsinpwc]

Will add also that since the spring Green has regressed, Hassell struggled somewhat and Wood is moving up but Ks a lot.  House of course is doing well after being a big question mark in the spring.

Probably someone posted this before but they went 12 to 6 in Fangraphs rating.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-the-draft-and-the-trade-deadline-affected-our-farm-system-rankings/

[imref]

Alu officially graduates so that moves everyone up a spot, and brings Roddery Muñoz into the top-30:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals/

Jacob Young is probably close to graduating from prospect status as well.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Jacob Young is probably close to graduating from prospect status as well.

72 ABs. 130 at bats is the key. Hard to see him getting 60 ABs over the next 10 games. He'll also have less than 45 days on the roster, so he should not lose rookie status for 2024.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Two less-heralded guys won Nats minor league system awards. There's no press release, but Bob mentioned it on the broadcast and Dougherty has it in his article on last night's game. Andrew Alvarez won the best minor league pitcher award and Johnathon Thomas won the best baserunner. Wood top offense, Lipscomb top defense, and Young the Nats Way award (funny, he doesn't swing at the first pitch and usually makes good decisions on the basepaths).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/21/nationals-braves-jake-irvin/

The Nationals announced their minor league awards Thursday, highlighting James Wood for his offense, lefty Andrew Alvarez for his pitching, infielder Trey Lipscomb for his defense, outfielder Johnathon Thomas for his baserunning and outfielder Jacob Young for best representing the “Nationals Way.”

Considering Young's baserunning, I was surprised about Thomas, but there's a case. Thomas stole 65 bases for F-burg this year. 23 years old, .226 / .342 / .297, 2022 19th round pick from Texas Southern after starting his college at Houston. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=thomas023joh Obscure enough not to make the Roster Resources database in Fangraphs.

Alvarez is a 2021 12th round pick who is 24 and finished at Harrisburg (26 IP). Pitched most of the year in F-burg (103 IP), where he was 7-4 with a 2.61 ERA. 57 GB% suppressed homers. In AA, he was 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA. The homer thing caught up a bit (19% HR/FB)  but he was still 45% GBs.

Looks like those awards were rewards for good effort and progress.