The Cavalli Has Arrived (delayed until 2024) - Cade Cavalli

[Senatorswin]

I agree a major reason is overuse at a young age. It used to be we played baseball in the spring, football in the fall and basketball in the winter. Now a kid will play baseball in the spring, then a summer league followed by a fall league until late October. Then they have workouts from November until school tryouts again in February.

Also, they used to say not to throw anything but a fastball until 15 or 16 years old. I know Mike Mussina said he never through a fastball until then. Now when a 13- or 14-year-old tries out for pitching they want to see his curve.

[Five Banners]

I agree a major reason is overuse at a young age. It used to be we played baseball in the spring, football in the fall and basketball in the winter. Now a kid will play baseball in the spring, then a summer league followed by a fall league until late October. Then they have workouts from November until school tryouts again in February.

Also, they used to say not to throw anything but a fastball until 15 or 16 years old. I know Mike Mussina said he never through a fastball until then. Now when a 13- or 14-year-old tries out for pitching they want to see his curve.

I remember Ken Beatrice talking about how people could train more and get bigger, but you couldn’t improve the joints the same way you can build muscle. The more things get pushed in one place, the more that another place may be more subject to breakdown.

[Slateman]

Sure they throw faster. But fewer innings. I am sure that is some factor but the doctors seem to say it is from too much pitching at a young age.  A kid at 18 now has probably thrown ten times as much as a similar kid back in the 1960s. 

I will keep listening to Dr Andrews rather than dudes who maybe stayed at a Holiday Inn.

https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/mlb-pitching-injuries/

You mean the guy who is directly profiting from all of this?

[imref]

You mean the guy who is directly profiting from all of this?

interesting logic to say that we shouldn't listen to doctors because they profit from illness.

[Natsinpwc]

You mean the guy who is directly profiting from all of this?

LOL.  Yea. They don’t need these surgeries. He’s just drumming up business.

[Slateman]

LOL.  Yea. They don’t need these surgeries. He’s just drumming up business.

He perpetuates a cycle that keeps him in business. Be a lot fewer surgeries if pitchers just threw 88-90.

[imref]

He perpetuates a cycle that keeps him in business. Be a lot fewer surgeries if pitchers just threw 88-90.

and it's Andrews fault that college and MLB scouts look for hard throwers????

One of the things i've seen in our area is that the top high school prospects will often repeat 11th grade to get another year of development under their belt. They'll transfer after completing 11th at a public school to a private school with a solid baseball program.  It's all business at a very young age.

[catocony]

and it's Andrews fault that college and MLB scouts look for hard throwers????

One of the things i've seen in our area is that the top high school prospects will often repeat 11th grade to get another year of development under their belt. They'll transfer after completing 11th at a public school to a private school with a solid baseball program.  It's all business at a very young age.

What area is that?  I've never heard of it at all.

[imref]

What area is that?  I've never heard of it at all.

NoVa.

Found this explainer:
https://www.parents.com/kids/education/parents-are-holding-their-kids-back-in-school-to-make-them-more-competitive-athletes/

[Natsinpwc]

He perpetuates a cycle that keeps him in business. Be a lot fewer surgeries if pitchers just threw 88-90.

 

Kids never used to get TJS and now they are. It’s overuse.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16452269/

[Slateman]

Kids never used to get TJS and now they are. It’s overuse.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16452269/

In kids, yes. There have been no studies of adult pitchers. Which is the question.

Also, that study doesnt control for velocity

These pitchers were more frequently starting pitchers, pitched in more showcases, pitched with higher velocity, and pitched more often with arm pain and fatigue.

So was it pitching more or pitching harder? Or both?

[Natsinpwc]

So was it pitching more or pitching harder? Or both?

Go read the first sentence of the results. Keep sticking to your point Ko matter what experts or studies are provided. I am sure you have your own data and know best.

[Slateman]

Go read the first sentence of the results. Keep sticking to your point Ko matter what experts or studies are provided. I am sure you have your own data and know best.

Dont have the data, but the study admits it didnt control for velocity. If you have studies that control for velo in adults, post em up.

If its just overuse alone, catchers would have similar rates of injury, as they have similar (if not greater) throwing rates

[Natsinpwc]

Dont have the data, but the study admits it didnt control for velocity. If you have studies that control for velo in adults, post em up.

If its just overuse alone, catchers would have similar rates of injury, as they have similar (if not greater) throwing rates

So you want to control for velocity in adults. How would one go about doing that?  Did kids used to have TJS?  No. Did they used to pitch year round?  You’re just being dense here. I am sure velocity plays some role but the bottom line is kids pitch lots more at a younger age. It’s wear and tear. Common sense.

[Natsinpwc]

For others here is the Conclusion of that study.

“Conclusion: Pitching practices were significantly different between the groups. The factors with the strongest associations with injury were overuse and fatigue. High pitch velocity and participation in showcases were also associated with increased risk for injury.“

It does say high pitch velocity is correlated. Just not as much as the main factors.

[Senatorswin]

"If its just overuse alone, catchers would have similar rates of injury, as they have similar (if not greater) throwing rates"

Not sure what you mean by that. The toss back to the pitcher is obviously not hard on the arm. Other than that they only have a hand full of hard throws all game.

[catocony]

NoVa.

Found this explainer:
https://www.parents.com/kids/education/parents-are-holding-their-kids-back-in-school-to-make-them-more-competitive-athletes/

Nowhere in that article did it mention NoVA.

[imref]

Nowhere in that article did it mention NoVA.

I know of several kids in NoVa who have gone that route and have ended up playing at Highland School in Warrenton. That's what I was referring to.

[imref]

Steamer projections:

23 GS
129 IP
4.41 ERA
4.46 FIP
8.32 K/9
3.86 BB/9
119/55 K/BB
1.1 WAR

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Still has rookie status, so listed as #63 on FG's top 100 list for 2023.  Rated a 50 Future Value.  From the write up:

He started the 2022 season at Triple-A and wasn’t quite as dominant as he’d been at the close of 2021, with just a 21.5% strikeout rate throughout April and May. But from June on, he was markedly more effective, boosting that K-rate to just shy of 30%, while bringing his walk rate down. This was in part due to a notable adjustment to his pitch mix. He threw his heavy, low-spin curveball with greater frequency and relied on it more as an out pitch. In two-strike counts, Cavalli threw his fastball 51% of the time in the first couple months of the season, with the curveball coming in second at just 22%. But from June through mid-August, his two-strike fastball usage diminished to just 40%, with his curveball right behind it at 34%. This is particularly important given the fact that his fastball’s viability has more to do with its velocity than its shape, so being able to rely more heavily on the secondaries – he also features an impressive mid-80s slider and a changeup he reserves mainly for use against lefties – allows the whole mix to play up. Moreover, in his 221 innings of career work in the minors, he’s allowed just eight home runs.

however, the injury and shutdown after one MLB start brought back concerns about his health history and the risk he may only be a reliever and not a core rotation piece.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

[Senatorswin]

Still has rookie status, so listed as #63 on FG's top 100 list for 2023.  Rated a 50 Future Value.  From the write up:however, the injury and shutdown after one MLB start brought back concerns about his health history and the risk he may only be a reliever and not a core rotation piece.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

Is the fact that Cavalli has to pitch his curve and slider more frequently than he had instead of his fastball make him more likely to have arm issues? I'm asking because I don't know.

[Smithian]

I just assume any young Nationals pitcher is an injury riddled mess who needs to be switched to relief appearances as soon as possible lest they be unable to pick up a pen with their dominant hand by the time they turn 30.

[IanRubbish]

I just assume any young Nationals pitcher is an injury riddled mess who needs to be switched to relief appearances as soon as possible lest they be unable to pick up a pen with their dominant hand by the time they turn 30.

I try to be hopeful for Cavalli, but as a 1st round Nats pitching prospect since 2012 his company is Erick Fedde, Dane Dunning, Mason Denaburg, Jackson Rutledge, and Seth Romero.  I know Rutledge is still hanging in there, but he's about to turn 24 and has yet to throw a pitch in AA.

[welch]

I try to be hopeful for Cavalli, but as a 1st round Nats pitching prospect since 2012 his company is Erick Fedde, Dane Dunning, Mason Denaburg, Jackson Rutledge, and Seth Romero.  I know Rutledge is still hanging in there, but he's about to turn 24 and has yet to throw a pitch in AA.

Don't forget Lucas Giolito. He is a respectable starting pitcher, although not "the next Stephen Strasburg". And trading Giolito got the Nats Adam Eaton.

Rutledge has been hurt, but I'm not mentally consigning him to the trash can. We will see something this season.

Yes, Fedde had a five-year tryout...and flopped. Denaburg got hurt, which happens. And Romero was one of those "take a chance" draft choices, like Anthony Rendon, a guy with huge potential that teams avoided. Too bad that Romero threw it away.

[IanRubbish]

Don't forget Lucas Giolito.

Giolito's interesting because he's been very effective at times, but also struggles to find the zone and throws a lot of pitches per inning, a very Nats trait.  That said, he rarely misses a start, which is more common among pitchers not coached by Jim Hickey.