Author Topic: The Weather - 2022  (Read 6244 times)

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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #200: November 07, 2022, 12:02:35 PM »
Nicole headed for Florida. When was the last time a storm hit the Atlantic coast of Florida first? 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #201: November 08, 2022, 05:02:11 PM »
Looks like Nicole is headed for the Nats spring training facility. Already getting rain and soem wind from the storm here in Orlando.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #202: November 08, 2022, 05:19:21 PM »
Looks like Nicole is headed for the Nats spring training facility. Already getting rain and soem wind from the storm here in Orlando.
West Palm is a known center for hot air, so not surprising.   

Offline Five Banners

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #203: November 08, 2022, 05:29:41 PM »
West Palm is a known center for hot air, so not surprising.   

Reports of trash cans knocking themselves together

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #204: November 08, 2022, 06:01:27 PM »
Reports of trash cans knocking themselves together
you have to wonder how the Astros practice cheating?  Do they have drills in Spring Training?  Like do they bring in Tommy Lee and have him work on a full drum kit to get them used to the pitch signals, then maybe drop down to some kid from Florida A&I with just a snare drum, then find Oscar the Grouch to give a motivational talk?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #205: November 17, 2022, 11:45:33 AM »
Buffalo may get 4 feet of snow this weekend.

Offline Slateman

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #206: November 17, 2022, 02:25:38 PM »
Buffalo may get 4 feet of snow this weekend.
Thats both amazing and awful

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #207: November 17, 2022, 07:22:56 PM »
Browns/Bills moved to Detroit

Offline skippy1999

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #208: November 18, 2022, 11:19:26 AM »
Browns/Bills moved to Detroit
Boooo!!! I love me some snow games!!

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #209: November 18, 2022, 11:36:22 AM »
Boooo!!! I love me some snow games!!

It would be rather difficult to play with somewhere around 4-6' being forecasted. :)

Offline skippy1999

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #210: November 18, 2022, 03:47:55 PM »
It would be rather difficult to play with somewhere around 4-6' being forecasted. :)
lol I know, just hate to see an outdoor game moved to a stupid dome.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #211: December 01, 2022, 05:08:09 PM »
Not the weather but it is nature and it’s pretty cool.


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #212: December 01, 2022, 05:35:14 PM »
chance...just a chance...of a mid-atlantic storm of some kind on December 9-10.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #213: December 01, 2022, 05:37:20 PM »
Not the weather but it is nature and it’s pretty cool.



Damn that's cool. I've been to the big island twice, but never during an eruption. We did visit the Volcano observatory at night on our last visit around 2015 and even without an active eruption, the caldera was glowing. It's an amazing site.  We also hiked the Iki trail which takes you down into an active caldera that last erupted in the 1950's, it's about a mile from one end to the other and there are still steam vents.  Definitely the best hike i've ever taken.

https://www.nps.gov/havo/planyourvisit/hike_day_kilaueaiki.htm

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #214: December 01, 2022, 06:04:34 PM »
Mauna Loa is the worlds largest active volcano. I guess Kilauea is its smaller neighbor. I believe Mauna Kea is the snow covered one? Been a while since I was there.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #215: December 02, 2022, 11:49:14 AM »
Mauna Loa is the worlds largest active volcano. I guess Kilauea is its smaller neighbor. I believe Mauna Kea is the snow covered one? Been a while since I was there.

Correct on all fronts though IIRC, Mauna Loa gets some snow as well.  Right now the lava flow is about 3 miles from the main highway through the middle of Hawaii, it will be a traffic nightmare if that road has to close. Current estimates are that the lava will arrive in about a week.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #216: December 15, 2022, 06:52:57 PM »
Weather guys freaking out about a major east coast snowstorm Dec 22-23. Gfs shows ground zero is northern Delaware

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #217: December 15, 2022, 07:44:18 PM »
Weather guys freaking out about a major east coast snowstorm Dec 22-23. Gfs shows ground zero is northern Delaware
Thanks a lot Biden.

Offline imref

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Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #219: December 19, 2022, 06:12:57 PM »
Kinda regretting breaking my Christmas "no travel" rule.  Friday to Portland ME by way of EWwwwwwwwwR  :spaz:
:shock:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/12/19/midwest-northeast-blizzard-arctic/


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #220: December 21, 2022, 02:21:29 PM »
Yeah, i'm not moving to Buffalo:

Quote
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Once in a Generation Winter Storm to Slam the Region Heading into
and THROUGH the Christmas Weekend...

Old Man Winter will unleash the full fury of winter upon our region
during this period...as an extremely amplified longwave pattern will
spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the
Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up
setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and
will have the potential to generate at LEAST storm force winds over
the Lower Great lakes.

As if the very real threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph were not
enough...there will also be the risk for a prolonged...paralyzing
heavy lake effect snow event. The very strong to damaging winds,
blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions
preceded by a rapid flash freeze all coming right before the
Christmas holiday weekend resulted in a *long duration* winter storm
watch being issued for western NY. A Winter Storm Watch has also now
been issued for Jefferson and Lewis county from midday Friday
through Monday. While heavy lake effect snows have already occurred
this winter season...this will be the first event with multiple
impacts from such intense winds. Winter storm watches are already in
effect for parts of western New York with the high component wrapped
into the same product.

An extremely amplified longwave pattern during this period will
spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the
Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up
setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and
will have the potential to generate storm force winds over the Lower
Great lakes.

Explosive cyclogenesis will take place over the mid western states
into southern Ontario on Friday...as an anomalously strong 150kt H25
jet will pass through the base of a very deep longwave trough. This
will support rapid deepening of a corresponding sfc low that will
track southern Ontario by late Friday. The `bombing` low will deepen
from roughly 990mb in the vcnty of Lake Erie/Lower Michigan late
Thursday night...to 982mb over southernmost Ontario Friday morning
to about 968mb near the Ontario-Quebec border by Friday evening...
easily meeting the definition of bombogenesis (24mb/24hrs). Such
deepening is relatively rare in the LOWER Great lakes...but more
common across the UPPER Great Lakes and certainly with Nor`easters
along the coast. Some of the parameters of this intense storm are
climatologically `off the charts`...such as MSLP and strength of
both the low level and upper level jets. One could certainly
describe this storm system as a once in a generation type of event.
Subtle differences remain...but there remains general model
agreement in the overall large scale scenario...which adds
confidence.

The rapidly intensifying low is forecast to pass just to our west on
Friday. Winds will ramp up in the cold air advection and during when
max pressure rise/fall couplet crosses. This is about as good as it
gets in terms of maximizing winds/gusts to the sfc. Several guidance
packages are now advertising wind gusts over the IAG Frontier to
near 60 mph late in the day as another intense 70kt LLJ enters the
region. This is NOT when the strongest winds are expected though.
That is yet to come.

In regards to pcpn on Friday...the strong winds will open the door
for MUCH colder air to pour across our forecast area. This will
result in a RAPID change over of the rain to snow with deep
frontogenetic forcing leading to a burst of moderately heavy snow
that will yield accumulations of several inches expected by late
afternoon. Temperatures that will start the day in the low to mid
40s in most areas will PLUMMET into the single digits across the
Srn Tier by the end of the day...while readings will range from the
teens across the remainder of wrn NY to the lower 30s east of Lake
Ontario. This dramatic plunge in temperatures will likely result in
a flash freeze of the snow/water/slush.

As the extremely deep storm system further deepens in place over the
Ontario-Quebec border Friday night...a strong secondary cold
front/sfc trough will plow across our forecast area. This will be
accompanied by the second 70kt low level jet that...being found in
the cold sector...should largely mix to the sfc at times. The threat
for high winds at the sfc will be greatest in the typical corridor
from Lake Erie and the IAG Frontier to Rochester and then to the
Thousand Island region. Increased winds some in these corridors.
Power outages will be a concern as will be blowing snow and drifting
snow.

The widespread synoptic snow during the first half of Friday night
should then taper off as the deepest forcing exits and limited
drying arrives in the mid levels. Meanwhile...a 230-240 flow of -20c
H85 air will promote an area of lake snow to become established
Buffalo northward...across IAG and the Northtowns. The snow...
whether it be synoptic or lake induced in nature...will be blown
around by +50 mph winds so significant blowing and drifting can be
anticipated along with near zero visibility and at least localized
blizzard conditions. As is typically the case...the very strong
southwest flow will also shove a great deal of water up to the
Buffalo end of Lk Erie...so lakeshore flooding will be a
possibility. More specifics on that in the lakeshore flooding
discussion.

A very tight sfc pressure gradient will remain in place across our
forecast area on the day before Christmas...so while the winds
should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in
the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues
and certainly to support continued blowing snow. Models have trended
a bit quicker with veering of winds, to more of 240-250 flow so that
more of the Buffalo Metro would be impacted by lake snows Saturday
into Saturday night with the visibility remaining near zero at times
within the band. It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging
from the single digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s
elsewhere resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 20
degrees below zero.

Christmas Day promises to remain cold with highs only in the teens
to low 20s and winds to 30 mph generating wind chills of 10 below to
just a few degrees abv zero. Meanwhile...a 240-250 flow will keep
the lake snow machine in full gear for sites near and just south of
the Buffalo and Watertown areas. No big change to forecast thinking.

While the very cold weather will persist into Monday...sfc based
ridging should help to at least lessen the potential for additional
significant lake snows later Monday into Tuesday. Possible that
conditions moderate more significantly by middle of next week, but
not surprisingly, not a clear signal yet.



Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #221: December 23, 2022, 10:41:39 AM »
stay warm everyone.

Offline 1995hoo

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #222: December 23, 2022, 10:50:30 AM »
My brother lives in New Orleans. At 8:57 EST today, the wind chill here in Fairfax County was 31°. The wind chill in New Orleans was 13°.

When he woke up around 10:20 EST, he sent a screenshot that showed the wind chill there was 16°. He did not seem amused by my reply noting that it had warmed up over the preceding 80 minutes.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #223: December 24, 2022, 12:07:42 PM »
stay warm everyone.

Got the chimney cleaned on Thursday. The woodstove is glowing.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #224: December 24, 2022, 12:47:24 PM »
I have to say the 25 degree drop from 9 AM to noon was impressive.