Author Topic: The Weather - 2022  (Read 3008 times)

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Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #175: September 28, 2022, 04:50:29 AM »
latest call has it closer to Fort Myers, so yes, but 5 foot storm surge would still be a problem for Tampa Bay, I think.

It would, but the latest is showing no such thing for Tampa.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/035341.shtml?inundation#contents

Between this and Hurricane Michael missing them, I'm starting to wonder if divine intervention is at play.  Maybe the gods want to save Cigar City Brewing.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #176: September 28, 2022, 07:23:31 AM »
Saw this am that it’s almost at cat-5 strength with winds at 155mph. Huge surge in ft myers. 12-16’ from englewood to Bonita beach. Geez.

We spent a week in January in Sanibel. It is going to get destroyed.

Offline machpost

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #177: September 28, 2022, 08:43:16 AM »
Saw this am that it’s almost at cat-5 strength with winds at 155mph. Huge surge in ft myers. 12-16’ from englewood to Bonita beach. Geez.

We spent a week in January in Sanibel. It is going to get destroyed.

Hurricane Charley did a lot of damage to Sanibel in 2004, and it messed up Captiva Island even worse. It hit in the middle of August and when we were down there for Christmas the damage was still very evident. It sounds like this hurricane might be even stronger.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #178: September 28, 2022, 08:47:30 AM »
It would, but the latest is showing no such thing for Tampa.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/035341.shtml?inundation#contents

Between this and Hurricane Michael missing them, I'm starting to wonder if divine intervention is at play.  Maybe the gods want to save Cigar City Brewing.
I don't know, maybe they updated it, but I see quite a bit of red and orange up towards Tampa in that bay.  The bay Port Charlotte is on is all red, of course, but tampa still will have a decent surge, 4'-6', at least on the maps I have seen this morning.  They are also getting more than a foot of rain.  It's a miss, but will still be damaging given the property values of the real estate.  The cameras on the bridge coming into Tampa Bay show the water just streaming in.

By the way, if the Rays build in Tampa, I hope they include flood walls.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #179: September 28, 2022, 08:48:38 AM »
Hurricane Charley did a lot of damage to Sanibel in 2004, and it messed up Captiva Island even worse. It hit in the middle of August and when we were down there for Christmas the damage was still very evident. It sounds like this hurricane might be even stronger.
They had some town officials talking about the Charley comparison.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #180: September 28, 2022, 09:27:46 AM »
9 AM NHC updated storm surge heights:
Quote
* From Englewood to Bonita Beach...12-18 ft
* Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* From Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft

Offline 1995hoo

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #181: September 28, 2022, 12:25:59 PM »
I don't know, maybe they updated it, but I see quite a bit of red and orange up towards Tampa in that bay.  The bay Port Charlotte is on is all red, of course, but tampa still will have a decent surge, 4'-6', at least on the maps I have seen this morning.  They are also getting more than a foot of rain.  It's a miss, but will still be damaging given the property values of the real estate.  The cameras on the bridge coming into Tampa Bay show the water just streaming in.

By the way, if the Rays build in Tampa, I hope they include flood walls.

Don't forget that for this storm, the bigger storm surge will occur in areas south and southeast of the eye ("down" as seen on a map view in which north is up). When a hurricane hits the Atlantic coast, it's the areas to the north and northwest that get the bigger storm surge because the "top" of the storm is the part pushing all the water ashore. But in this case, the storm is hitting the coast from the opposite direction and the water is coming the other way, so it's the "bottom" of the storm that pushes more water ashore (the "top" pushes it more out into the Gulf).

I haven't heard from our relatives in Fort Myers. No idea whether they stayed or left (they usually stay) and I'm not going to bother them today for understandable reasons.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #182: September 28, 2022, 12:38:30 PM »
There was video earlier of people walking out into Tampa bay as water receded

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #183: September 28, 2022, 12:48:23 PM »
21 waffle houses are closed. This is serious

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #184: September 28, 2022, 06:32:53 PM »
I don't know, maybe they updated it, but I see quite a bit of red and orange up towards Tampa in that bay.  The bay Port Charlotte is on is all red, of course, but tampa still will have a decent surge, 4'-6', at least on the maps I have seen this morning.  They are also getting more than a foot of rain.  It's a miss, but will still be damaging given the property values of the real estate.  The cameras on the bridge coming into Tampa Bay show the water just streaming in.

By the way, if the Rays build in Tampa, I hope they include flood walls.

The map I linked only showed some random blue dots (~1 foot of storm surge) around Tampa, and now it's showing completely clear, so not sure what you were seeing. :shrug:

Don't forget that for this storm, the bigger storm surge will occur in areas south and southeast of the eye ("down" as seen on a map view in which north is up). When a hurricane hits the Atlantic coast, it's the areas to the north and northwest that get the bigger storm surge because the "top" of the storm is the part pushing all the water ashore. But in this case, the storm is hitting the coast from the opposite direction and the water is coming the other way, so it's the "bottom" of the storm that pushes more water ashore (the "top" pushes it more out into the Gulf).

I haven't heard from our relatives in Fort Myers. No idea whether they stayed or left (they usually stay) and I'm not going to bother them today for understandable reasons.

Yep, it's basically the "right front" of a hurricane (or any northern hemisphere tropical cyclone) that causes the most damage.  That's why Tampa started to luck out as soon as the path started moving farther south.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #185: September 28, 2022, 06:44:19 PM »
Saw this am that it’s almost at cat-5 strength with winds at 155mph. Huge surge in ft myers. 12-16’ from englewood to Bonita beach. Geez.

We spent a week in January in Sanibel. It is going to get destroyed.

That place is so screwed.  Not only a direct hit from the eye wall, but a long, protracted hit.  It'll be morbidly fascinating to see satellite images of the island before and after the storm.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #186: September 29, 2022, 08:05:02 AM »
A section of the Sanibel causeway collapsed. There is no way for vehicles to get in or out of Sanibel and Captiva until it’s rebuilt.

Offline 1995hoo

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #187: September 29, 2022, 08:52:21 AM »
A section of the Sanibel causeway collapsed. There is no way for vehicles to get in or out of Sanibel and Captiva until it’s rebuilt.

Photo at this link. It reminds me a bit of the pictures of the Oakland Bay Bridge after the 1989 earthquake, recognizing that bridge is much bigger and the causeway doesn't have two levels.

https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #188: September 29, 2022, 09:31:25 AM »
My sister closed on her retirement place (not a luxury place, just a manufactured home) in North Fort Myers three weeks ago.  :(

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #189: September 29, 2022, 09:58:28 AM »
Photo at this link. It reminds me a bit of the pictures of the Oakland Bay Bridge after the 1989 earthquake, recognizing that bridge is much bigger and the causeway doesn't have two levels.

https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833

and there are alternative paths into SF and Oakland.


Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #190: September 29, 2022, 11:38:09 AM »
My sister closed on her retirement place (not a luxury place, just a manufactured home) in North Fort Myers three weeks ago.  :(
Ouch. Hope it’s ok.

Mostly local flooding in the Orlando area.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #191: September 29, 2022, 12:21:16 PM »
Ian back to a hurricane, will hit SC as a Cat-1

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #192: September 29, 2022, 01:17:03 PM »
Ian back to a hurricane, will hit SC as a Cat-1
resilient thing.

Offline Five Banners

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #193: September 29, 2022, 01:48:05 PM »
resilient thing.

Yep, good to hope and pray it doesn’t become a Sandy. There were big sections of Western Maryland that were hit hard in addition to everything else

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #194: September 29, 2022, 03:07:59 PM »
Yep, good to hope and pray it doesn’t become a Sandy. There were big sections of Western Maryland that were hit hard in addition to everything else

it's projected to head inland toward western Virginia. I can't imagine a storm cutting across Florida, then reforming and coming up the coast, the financial impact alone (not to mention the human impact) would be insane.


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #196: October 02, 2022, 01:40:38 PM »
Heard this morning that there are around 300 missing people on Sanibel and Captiva alone. Probably an equal or greater amount in the Ft. Myers / Ft. Myers beach area.

Also heard that the exotic birds that were on display at Jerry's market at Sanibel didn't survive. We were there in January and spent at least an hour with them. The market had a big outdoor pavilion in which the birds were on display, many of them could say a few words. The birds were taken to a nature preserve on the island before the storm but the preserve was inundated with the storm surge. The couple who owned the preserve survived, but most all the animals (and the birds) did not. :(

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #197: October 02, 2022, 02:59:55 PM »
Heard this morning that there are around 300 missing people on Sanibel and Captiva alone. Probably an equal or greater amount in the Ft. Myers / Ft. Myers beach area.

Also heard that the exotic birds that were on display at Jerry's market at Sanibel didn't survive. We were there in January and spent at least an hour with them. The market had a big outdoor pavilion in which the birds were on display, many of them could say a few words. The birds were taken to a nature preserve on the island before the storm but the preserve was inundated with the storm surge. The couple who owned the preserve survived, but most all the animals (and the birds) did not. :(

Very sad. I know people like to ride out these storms on the coast but makes little sense on an island.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #198: October 02, 2022, 07:17:41 PM »
The NHC is following a new storm named 91L for now. Tracks models have it going into the Yucatán but right now it’s on a similar track to Ian.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2022
« Reply #199: October 04, 2022, 01:55:24 PM »
The NHC is following a new storm named 91L for now. Tracks models have it going into the Yucatán but right now it’s on a similar track to Ian.

models are pretty much in agreement that it's going into central america, right now centered on Nicaragua.