2018-2019 Offseason Moves

[Slateman]

You misunderstand, my friend.  of course they don't have a time-sharing starting platoon at 1st.  But the Nats usually look for a lefty to back up Zimmerman to pinch hit, fill in for him occasionally against a righty to give him rest, and to play if he's nicked up. Literally, that Lind  and Adams, and was part of the attraction of Murphy.

Oh okay. Sorry.

[Slateman]

What I like is that LeMahieu generally puts the bat on the ball. (Strikeouts drive me crazy.) Also, he has always hit for a good batting average. Over .300 in 2017 and his .276 last year translates to close to .300 in less pitcher-dominant seasons. Lifetime average of .298 in almost 4000 PA's.

Wait .... how does his .276 translate to .300? Is that more of that Coors Math stuff?

[UMDNats]

I mean ... wouldn't they be having talks with most agents?

"team has talked to the agent of a big free agent."

cool scoop!

[hotshot]

Wait .... how does his .276 translate to .300? Is that more of that Coors Math stuff?

Were BA's down significantly in 2018? I mean .326 won the batting crown, and there were only 8 players in the entire NL who hit .300 or better. The first year since 1972 that the league average was below .250. That, to me, calls for some extrapolation. Maybe .300 was too high (although that is basically LeMahieu's career average) so let me revise it to .285.

[imref]

Wait .... how does his .276 translate to .300? Is that more of that Coors Math stuff?

his home/away splits are awful but he's a good fielder.  Might be a low-end bridge to Kieboom.

[bluestreak]

What I like is that LeMahieu generally puts the bat on the ball. (Strikeouts drive me crazy.) Also, he has always hit for a good batting average. Over .300 in 2017 and his .276 last year translates to close to .300 in less pitcher-dominant seasons. Lifetime average of .298 in almost 4000 PA's.

He has a career OPS+ of 92 and a career wRC+ of 90. He’s a below average hitter that benefits from playing in Coors. And those stats both account for offensive environment, since they are adjusted to average. If you prefer batting average, he hit .317 at home and .229 away from Coors last season.
Even in his huge season in 2016 (130 wRC+), he had a big split. He batted .391 at home and .303 on the road.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Were BA's down significantly in 2018? I mean .326 won the batting crown, and there were only 8 players in the entire NL who hit .300 or better. The first year since 1972 that the league average was below .250. That, to me, calls for some extrapolation. Maybe .300 was too high (although that is basically LeMahieu's career average) so let me revise it to .285.

They were, but it's been a long slow slide from the steroid era, in which there were a few years with leaguewide BAs at or above .270.  It hasn't been above .255 since 2011, when LeMahieu came up.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Just like Hosmer, and just like Yelich, LeMahieu doesn’t have to dramatically change anything. Over the past three years, he’s been a top-five defensive second baseman according to both DRS and UZR, and he projects to be an above-average player. LeMahieu can choose to remain what he is, just as Mauer did, and a team can choose to be happy with that. There’s nothing wrong with playing this version of the man. But when he’s in the box, LeMahieu’s standout skill is getting the right part of the bat to the baseball. Because of that, you can see how, in this day and age, a team might look at him as the potential next Daniel Murphy — a Daniel Murphy who plays far better defense. There are, of course, no guarantees, and LeMahieu would have to be willing to make some adjustments. But there’s even more talent in there than you’d think. Here is one candidate for the next power breakout.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-hidden-upside-of-a-normal-free-agent/

Hmmm. . . Where have I heard that name, Daniel Murphy, before?  And who was Murphy's hitting coach when he broke out?

Gist of the article discusses his contacts skills and average velocity on contact, and suggests that he could break out if he adjusts his point of contact to further in front of the plate as he started to do last year.  Chalks up some of the offensive drop last year to injuries. 

I still think his skill set as is reminds me of D-Span, but the potential for pop might mean more.  At 30, he's not super old to buy ages 31-33.

[Slateman]

Were BA's down significantly in 2018? I mean .326 won the batting crown, and there were only 8 players in the entire NL who hit .300 or better. The first year since 1972 that the league average was below .250. That, to me, calls for some extrapolation. Maybe .300 was too high (although that is basically LeMahieu's career average) so let me revise it to .285.

Have you factored in not hitting in Coors anymore? If he hits .265, it's a wild success.

Also, there is no extrapolation for current pitching because that's the way the league is right now.

his home/away splits are awful but he's a good fielder.  Might be a low-end bridge to Kieboom.

You're not getting him for less than 3 years. If Keiboom isn't going to be ready by 2020, you either trade him, or just accept a non-playoff season. I think people are overrating him.

He has a career OPS+ of 92 and a career wRC+ of 90. He’s a below average hitter that benefits from playing in Coors. And those stats both account for offensive environment, since they are adjusted to average. If you prefer batting average, he hit .317 at home and .229 away from Coors last season.
Even in his huge season in 2016 (130 wRC+), he had a big split. He batted .391 at home and .303 on the road.

This. Stay the freak away from LeMahieu

What I like is that LeMahieu generally puts the bat on the ball. (Strikeouts drive me crazy.) Also, he has always hit for a good batting average. Over .300 in 2017 and his .276 last year translates to close to .300 in less pitcher-dominant seasons. Lifetime average of .298 in almost 4000 PA's.

Career .264/.311/.362, .098 ISO, 81wRC+, 16.2 %    K rate away from Coors.

To put that in perspective, Wilmer Difo is a career .250/.310/.358, .112 ISO, 77wRC+, 18.9 % hitter.

Wilmer is, at worst, on par, defensively with LeMahieu, I'd rather not spend 15+ million on him when I can play Difo  < 1 million

[Slateman]

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1664388

Marlins wanted Albies from the Braves for Realmuto. So already their price has come down from a Robles level prospect.

I think Keiboom and a couple pieces get Realmuto and Castro

[hotshot]

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1664388

Marlins wanted Albies from the Braves for Realmuto. So already their price has come down from a Robles level prospect.

I think Keiboom and a couple pieces get Realmuto and Castro

That would be good! You don't think the Marlins would rather have the proven Albies than the prospect Robles? I do.

[Slateman]

That would be good! You don't think the Marlins would rather have the proven Albies than the prospect Robles? I do.

The Braves turned them down.

And no, I don't.  Last season is probably what you can expect/hope for from Albies. Hes basically what we all hoped Espinosa would turn into.

[sixthree175]

The Marlins will get what they deserve if/when they trade Realmuto.  They waited too long because they are greedy.

[Natsinpwc]

The Marlins will get what they deserve if/when they trade Realmuto.  They waited too long because they are greedy.

They are not greedy. They didn’t get enough in their fire sale last year and are trying to make up for it.

[varoadking]

They are not greedy. They didn’t get enough in their fire sale last year and are trying to make up for it.

I thought they said he wasn't available...he was going to become their cornerstone?

[Natsinpwc]

I thought they said he wasn't available...he was going to become their cornerstone?

They lied. They have no fans either way.

[Slateman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1067600735968346113?s=19

(link: https://nyp.st/2Q0rJDq) nyp.st/2Q0rJDq the #Mariners are “motivated” to move Cano, enough that they are thinking of attaching Diaz in some scenarios. Most interested so far in Diaz: #Mets #Yankees #Phillies #Braves #Redsox. At bottom, Atl gambling that Sept was the real Donaldson/McCann

freaking do it

[3bside]

If the Mariners are willing to eat $10 million per year, Cano makes almost too much sense.  Difo showed last year that he's not an everyday player.  Cano's a lefty bat to replace Harper/Murphy, he can play second for a year or two and then move to first when Zim's contract is up and Kieboom is ready to play short or second.  The only down side is that they'll probably have to eat the last two years of his contract, but at $14 million per year, that's not terrible.  We also wouldn't have to give up any big time prospect, as the Mariners are motivated to move his contract.

[hotshot]

The Braves turned them down.

And no, I don't.  Last season is probably what you can expect/hope for from Albies. Hes basically what we all hoped Espinosa would turn into.

If Robles, this year, equalled the numbers Albies put up for Atlanta in 2018, I think we'd all be very happy.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Playing with some numbers: if he's a 3 win player next year, which is in line with 3 of his last 4 years, at $8MM a win, and ages by declining .5 WAR a season, that suggests he's a $60MM player over the next 5 years being paid $120MM.  I can see why the Mariners want to lose him.  Suppose you figure he's a 3.5 WAR player?  Then he's worth $80MM over the length of his contract.  I suspect the Mariners try to see if they can eat less than $50MM in a bidding war.

[Slateman]

Playing with some numbers: if he's a 3 win player next year, which is in line with 3 of his last 4 years, at $8MM a win, and ages by declining .5 WAR a season, that suggests he's a $60MM player over the next 5 years being paid $120MM.  I can see why the Mariners want to lose him.  Suppose you figure he's a 3.5 WAR player?  Then he's worth $80MM over the length of his contract.  I suspect the Mariners try to see if they can eat less than $50MM in a bidding war.

He also played 80 games last season. Dude is 36 and still raking.  Of course, that may have been because he's on PEDs, so who knows.

If they're really willing to give up Diaz, then I'm totally game. Frankly, I'd view as buying prospects, as Diaz will likely fetch a ton more at a trade deadline in the next couple years.

FYI, fangraphs values WAR as lightly more valuable, but your numbers aren't too far off (80 million vs 60): https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/making-a-robinson-cano-trade-work/

Long term, it probably freaks this team, but I think this team is already freaked past 2021. If, magically, Rizzo could hold on to Keiboom and Robles (or Garcia pans out as more than a utility infielder), then this would be an amazing win for the Nationals, both short term and long term.

On the other hand, it would probably be cheaper to simply get Daniel Murphy back for a couple seasons and live with the terrible defense when Zimmerman is healthy.

[Steve Rogers]

If the Mariners are willing to eat $10 million per year, Cano makes almost too much sense.  Difo showed last year that he's not an everyday player.  Cano's a lefty bat to replace Harper/Murphy, he can play second for a year or two and then move to first when Zim's contract is up and Kieboom is ready to play short or second.  The only down side is that they'll probably have to eat the last two years of his contract, but at $14 million per year, that's not terrible.  We also wouldn't have to give up any big time prospect, as the Mariners are motivated to move his contract.

Cano has a no trade. Word is he wants back in NYC.

[Slateman]

If the Mariners are willing to eat $10 million per year, Cano makes almost too much sense.  Difo showed last year that he's not an everyday player.  Cano's a lefty bat to replace Harper/Murphy, he can play second for a year or two and then move to first when Zim's contract is up and Kieboom is ready to play short or second.  The only down side is that they'll probably have to eat the last two years of his contract, but at $14 million per year, that's not terrible.  We also wouldn't have to give up any big time prospect, as the Mariners are motivated to move his contract.

If they eat that much money, I think they're going to want a big time prospect. Particularly if they include Diaz.

Cano has a no trade. Word is he wants back in NYC.

But they would have to want to do it, and I don't think they do. Why spend that on Cano when you can put that money towards Machado? It's not like they need Diaz.

[Slateman]

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I don't want Cano. I'd rather pay Rendon that contract and move Kieboom for pitching than lose both of them.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He also played 80 games last season. Dude is 36 and still raking.  Of course, that may have been because he's on PEDs, so who knows.

his WAR estimate of 3 for 2019 (2 projections on his FG page) probably incorporates some allowance for injury / suspension risk.