Author Topic: 2018 - Waiting for the postseason (Read 11153 times)

Slateman · « **on:** March 30, 2018, 11:25:03 am »

Here we are again. We know we're going to win the division. We know this is one of the best teams (on paper) in all of baseball.

But here we will celebrate all the little things as we wait for the moment of truth.

Today, I get to watch a baseball game in beautiful, 55 inch, HDTV. Just bought it

Minty Fresh · « **Reply #1 on:** March 30, 2018, 11:42:48 am »

Thread title fail. You forgot the word "DISAPPOINTMENT" at the end of it.

imref · « **Reply #2 on:** March 30, 2018, 11:51:26 am »

can't say I'm as excited about this season as I was for the last two. Feels like the window has closed, but we'll see.

Optics · « **Reply #3 on:** March 30, 2018, 12:02:39 pm »

Quote from: imref on March 30, 2018, 11:51:26 am

can't say I'm as excited about this season as I was for the last two. Feels like the window has closed, but we'll see.

I'm still excited but this definitely feels like the last year of the window. I don't think we'll suck next year but we'll fall into 2nd tier in the NL status without Harper and Murphy among others.

It'd have been nice if we had at least one World Series ring to show for it...

varoadking · « **Reply #4 on:** March 30, 2018, 12:16:07 pm »

Quote from: Optics on March 30, 2018, 12:02:39 pm

I'm still excited but this definitely feels like the last year of the window. I don't think we'll suck next year but we'll fall into 2nd tier in the NL status without Harper and Murphy among others.

It'd have been nice if we had at least one World Series ring to show for it...

Be nice to have one NLDS win to show for it...

tomterp · « **Reply #5 on:** March 30, 2018, 12:38:11 pm »

Quote from: Optics on March 30, 2018, 12:02:39 pm

I'm still excited but this definitely feels like the last year of the window. I don't think we'll suck next year but we'll fall into 2nd tier in the NL status without Harper and Murphy among others.

It'd have been nice if we had at least one World Series ring to show for it...

BP's Craig Goldstein and Bret Sayre touched on the window in their discussion on the Nats a few days ago, a feature they are doing for all teams.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38726/table-two-previewing-washington-nationals/

Quote

Goldstein: I kinda feel like this season isn’t even about 2018 for the Nats. It’s really about what’s coming next: Harper is a free agent in 2019, as are Gio Gonzalez and Murphy. How do you see the Nationals balancing their competitive hopes in the here and now with making sure they’re still top dog after this next offseason?

Sayre: As crazy as this sounds coming out of my fingers, I don’t think there’s an organization better equipped to lose an offensive superstar than the Nationals. Even if this is both Harper’s and Murphy’s swan song, they’ll still go into 2019 with potential All-Stars at a minimum of four offensive positions and still have the double aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Combine that with their ownership’s willingness to spend, the roughly $40 million coming off the books (of which maybe a quarter will be eaten up by increasing arbitration salaries), and the high-end talent still to come 2-4 years down the road, the 2018-as-last-gasp folks don’t really have much of a leg to stand on.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #6 on:** March 30, 2018, 12:45:25 pm »

I think that this is not quite the close of the window even if Murphy, Gio, Harper, and a few other pieces take off. There's Robles and a ton of money. Rendon, Turner, and Eaton is not a bad nucleus, and so far, I've not even gotten into "if Taylor, if Fedde, if Kieboom, if Soto, if Crowe." Further on, there's Antuna and the other DR MI we signed. The only guy in the 2019 lineup that you can expect to decline from 2018 and 2017 at this point is RZ. Rotation, you still lead with Scherzer and Strasburg, and have a nice back end piece in Roark. I think the bigger threat to the window might be quick maturing and hits on player development by the Braves, and player development and a spending spree by Philly. Mets, it's all in the health and arms.

Smithian · « **Reply #7 on:** March 30, 2018, 01:02:01 pm »

Is this the LOD thread?

Ray D · « **Reply #8 on:** March 30, 2018, 01:20:56 pm »

Quote from: Slateman on March 30, 2018, 11:25:03 am

Here we are again. We know we're going to win the division.

I think it's crazy to assume we'll win the division. I hope the players aren't assuming that.

Slateman · « **Reply #9 on:** March 30, 2018, 01:35:49 pm »

Quote from: Smithian on March 30, 2018, 01:02:01 pm

Is this the LOD thread?

No. I make no predictions here, other than this team is a lock for the playoffs. Here we talk about the little things we do to keep up with a season in which we expect no race to the finish or drama with winning the division.

Maybe you stream a game from the top of the Space Needle over dinner.

Maybe you highlight an amazing play.

dcpatti · « **Reply #10 on:** March 30, 2018, 01:36:05 pm »

this thread is one big jinx.

Slateman · « **Reply #11 on:** March 30, 2018, 01:37:44 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on March 30, 2018, 01:20:56 pm

I think it's crazy to assume we'll win the division. I hope the players aren't assuming that.

If they dont than either the Mets/Phillies had the greatest miracle season of all time, or this team succumbed to the most insidious injury history of all time

Slateman · « **Reply #12 on:** March 30, 2018, 01:41:36 pm »

Quote from: dcpatti on March 30, 2018, 01:36:05 pm

this thread is one big jinx.

None of my other "reverse jinx" posts or threads have worked. So maybe this will help.

Also, I'm throwing a party at midnight during the new moon. Bring your own sacrificial goat.

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #13 on:** March 30, 2018, 01:44:42 pm »

Quote from: imref on March 30, 2018, 11:51:26 am

can't say I'm as excited about this season as I was for the last two. Feels like the window has closed, but we'll see.

WTF

On the contrary - if anything, this is the last year of the window. Why would the window already be closed? Does Harper have some ACL tear only you're privy to?

Ray D · « **Reply #14 on:** March 30, 2018, 01:48:58 pm »

Quote from: Slateman on March 30, 2018, 01:37:44 pm

If they dont than either the Mets/Phillies had the greatest miracle season of all time, or this team succumbed to the most insidious injury history of all time

We had the same overconfidence in 2013 and 2015. What were the insidious injuries those years? The Phillies aren't going to win the division, but the Mets could win it as easily as they did in 2015.

dcpatti · « **Reply #15 on:** March 30, 2018, 02:04:55 pm »

Quote from: Slateman on March 30, 2018, 01:41:36 pm

None of my other "reverse jinx" posts or threads have worked. So maybe this will help.

Also, I'm throwing a party at midnight during the new moon. Bring your own sacrificial goat.

My goat is in the shop, but I'll bring my Pan flute.

tomterp · « **Reply #16 on:** March 30, 2018, 03:28:16 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on March 30, 2018, 01:20:56 pm

I think it's crazy to assume we'll win the division. I hope the players aren't assuming that.

BP has the Nats at a 55.1% chance of winning the division (11.9% wildcard probability.)

73 BP contributors/writers picked the division winner - 72 had the Nats, 1 had the Phillies.

What level of assurance would you need to make the assumption - 80%? 95%? 100%?

I see this thread has brought out the jinx fairy believers as well.

skippy1999 · « **Reply #17 on:** March 30, 2018, 03:31:21 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on March 30, 2018, 01:48:58 pm

We had the same overconfidence in 2013 and 2015. What were the insidious injuries those years? The Phillies aren't going to win the division, but the Mets could win it as easily as they did in 2015.

I agree, if they stay healthy the Mets are total threat.

Baseball is Life · « **Reply #18 on:** March 30, 2018, 03:53:27 pm »

Slate must not like foreplay either.

Slateman · « **Reply #19 on:** March 30, 2018, 05:19:51 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on March 30, 2018, 01:48:58 pm

We had the same overconfidence in 2013 and 2015. What were the insidious injuries those years? The Phillies aren't going to win the division, but the Mets could win it as easily as they did in 2015.

Nawwwww

Ray D · « **Reply #20 on:** March 30, 2018, 10:31:06 pm »

Quote from: tomterp on March 30, 2018, 03:28:16 pm

BP has the Nats at a 55.1% chance of winning the division (11.9% wildcard probability.)

73 BP contributors/writers picked the division winner - 72 had the Nats, 1 had the Phillies.

What level of assurance would you need to make the assumption - 80%? 95%? 100%?

Certainly not 55. Picking them to win and assuming they'll win are quite different. I might pick them to win, I certainly wouldn't assume it.

Anyway I was challenging the assertion "We know we're going to win the division." It's absurd.

Count Walewski · « **Reply #21 on:** March 30, 2018, 10:48:15 pm »

Mets are a very trendy contrarian pick to make the playoffs

Mathguy · « **Reply #22 on:** March 31, 2018, 04:33:57 am »

Some Mets fans here in OBX feel the same way - but are skeptical the Mets can stay healthy

Quote from: skippy1999 on March 30, 2018, 03:31:21 pm

I agree, if they stay healthy the Mets are total threat.

Optics · « **Reply #23 on:** March 31, 2018, 10:40:02 am »

The Mets don't have the depth to sustain a 162 game season. Everyone has injuries. We lost Eaton last year and Turner for a stretch as well as Stras and even Scherz got dinged.

Mattionals · « **Reply #24 on:** March 31, 2018, 10:54:01 am »

Quote from: Optics on March 31, 2018, 10:40:02 am

The Mets don't have the depth to sustain a 162 game season. Everyone has injuries. We lost Eaton last year and Turner for a stretch as well as Stras and even Scherz got dinged.

It's not just health for the Mets, it's hoping guys can find their former selves or step up and contribute. The entire infield is a gamble for being able to hit. Plawecki, AGon, Asdrubal Cabrera, Amed Rosario, and Todd Frazier are going to have to make up a lot of ground in order for the team to really take off. I think Rosario is the best of that bunch, but that doesn't say much. Nimmo, Cespedes, and Conforto is going to be pretty good, and Bruce can move to 1B and play decently well, but the lineup doesn't exude a ton of confidence.

Then they have to hope the pitching staff not only stays healthy, but outside of Thor and deGrom, they have to hope they produce. Is Matt Harvey going to pitch like last year Matt Harvey or the Dark Knight, or likely somewhere in-between? Is Matz able to stay healthy AND productive the whole season? Will the roundtable of Gsellman, Lugo, Wheeler, and Vargas enough for the 5th spot? How will the bullpen fare?

I think the Mets could do well but have more questions than solid answers at this point, and I would worry equally that the Phillies and/or Braves could be competitive all season, yet I see those two teams not having enough polished arms ready this year to maybe make them dark horse contenders.