NL East (2018)

[Natsinpwc]

Ronald Acuna 4 for his last 29 with 15 strikeouts. Hold on with that Hall of Fame induction. It's hard to hit MLB pitching.

[Optics]

Best part about these rain days is gaining ground despite not having to play. 

[hotshot]

Best part about these rain days is gaining ground despite not having to play. 

Yep, think we dodged a bullet this week. Hopefully, by mid-June, we can better afford to lose a couple.

[JanuaryHos]

The talk about the braves playing the easier teams so far and the nats playing tougher teams early in the season reminds me of something Earl Weaver once said. Back then the royals were lousy. He said you want to play the royals in August as opposed to early in the year. Early in the year they don't know they're the royals but by August they remember they're the royals and play like it.
I guess that means teams with weaknesses can get off to good starts but over the long haul the weaknesses put them where they belong.

Not sure where the idea the Braves have played an easier schedule comes from. According to BRef, both the Braves and Nationals have played an equal schedule and they've been some of the tougher in baseball.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml

Sort by SOS.

They've only played four games against the Marlins, but they have played half their games against the Phillies already. They're 6-3 against the Phillies, by the way. And after this week, they'll have played all of their games against the Cubs. It's not like they've gotten to this record by always playing the Marlins. I'm afraid to tell you that it's real and we need to watch out.

[welch]

Cespedes to the DL with strained hip felxor or quad injury or something else wrong with his leg. Mets say that rest "should" fix it.

[rileyn]

Best part about these rain days is gaining ground despite not having to play. 

Except when we lose ground.

[LoveAngelos]

"We had to lose ground to gain ground"
General  Nygun Pho, Quang TRI 1968

[Slateman]

Not sure where the idea the Braves have played an easier schedule comes from. According to BRef, both the Braves and Nationals have played an equal schedule and they've been some of the tougher in baseball.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml

Sort by SOS.

They've only played four games against the Marlins, but they have played half their games against the Phillies already. They're 6-3 against the Phillies, by the way. And after this week, they'll have played all of their games against the Cubs. It's not like they've gotten to this record by always playing the Marlins. I'm afraid to tell you that it's real and we need to watch out.

Yea, no. Markakis is not a .330+ hitter. Freeman isn't a .325 hitter. Albies has never been projected for this much power. On top of that, two of the Braves starters with low ERAs are outperforming their FIP by half a run. Newcomb has pitched against one good lineup, and Foltynewicz is a consistent 5 inning pitcher.

The Braves will come down to Earth. The Nationals have to be ready to play when they do.

[dcpatti]

Since starting the season 11-1, the Mets then went 9-18 and are once again below .500. As is tradition.

Not sure where the idea the Braves have played an easier schedule comes from. According to BRef, both the Braves and Nationals have played an equal schedule and they've been some of the tougher in baseball.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml

Sort by SOS.

They've only played four games against the Marlins, but they have played half their games against the Phillies already. They're 6-3 against the Phillies, by the way. And after this week, they'll have played all of their games against the Cubs. It's not like they've gotten to this record by always playing the Marlins. I'm afraid to tell you that it's real and we need to watch out.

I don’t think SOS is all that accurate till a little later in the season because the early season sample size is so small. Even if it’s spot-on accurate, the Braves have had only one series >2 time zones away and almost all of their travel has been on the east coast. The Nats have finished all their Pacific time zone trips and also all of their longest road trips, and that’s definitely a factor. The DC->San Diego->Phoenix trip as part of a 17-day stretch with no days off is pretty brutal. During this time, the Nats went 13-4 including a sweep of the DBacks in Phoenix; the Braves, over a similar period, went 10-7 against the Rays, Phillies, Giants (got swept in Atlanta), and Marlins. 10-7 is still a good record but the toughest part of the Braves schedule is still ahead of them, while we probably have put ours behind us already.

[mixedmutt]

When you are reduced to using how much time you've spent sitting on an airplane as an excuse for where you are in the standings, then you are in trouble. And the toughest part of the Braves schedule is most definitely ending, they have had it rough so far, and they are about to have series against the phillies, red sox, mets then us. Once those series are over they will have it relatively easy until September. The braves have also played 3 more road games than we have and have a better record on the road than us, so don't go hoping a tough road trip will be their downfall.

Seriously, go look at their schedule, from june 3rd to Sept 4th they play 2 series against us, 1 against the yankees, 1 against the d-backs...every other series they play in that entire time span is against middling teams. They will have a really tough September, but probably still easier than they had it in April or May, and by then there's a good chance even more of their prospects will have joined them like Riley and Allard, or they will have decided to be buyers and made a big splash before the trade deadline. Sure, many of the players on the current roster will regress back to their career norms, but their roster only gets better from here on out.

They aren't going to give 1st place away, we are going to have to take it.

[bluestreak]

I love how people on here repeatedly think. “I’m fine when I’m on a plane, long road trips are just a flimsy excuse for poor play,” as if it doesn’t make both logical sense and is borne out by evidence in every sport for years and years.

[varoadking]

Since starting the season 11-1, the Mets then went 9-18 and are once again below .500. As is tradition.

20-19 is a .513 winning percentage... 

[mixedmutt]

bluestreak, have you met my friend Mr. Strawman?

I didn't say it was irrelevant or had no bearing, but if that's your primary excuse I'd say you are grasping for straws and are probably in more trouble than you want to admit. Especially if you are using that argument against a team who has both played more road games and has a better away record then we do....

I'm no LoD member, but if you think we won't have to keep the pressure on because you are waiting for the braves to implode...well, good luck with that.

[dcpatti]

20-19 is a .513 winning percentage... 

well clearly i suck at math but whatever, they'll be back below .500 soon enough because mets.

bluestreak, have you met my friend Mr. Strawman?

I didn't say it was irrelevant or had no bearing, but if that's your primary excuse I'd say you are grasping for straws and are probably in more trouble than you want to admit. Especially if you are using that argument against a team who has both played more road games and has a better away record then we do....

I'm no LoD member, but if you think we won't have to keep the pressure on because you are waiting for the braves to implode...well, good luck with that.

Personally I was not saying that the long road trips were the primary "excuse" for being behind the braves in the standings; my point was that the SOS metric does not tell the whole story, and that one facet that is missing is the very real impact of the west coast swing.  I don't think anyone expects the barves to roll over and die for us, but I also don't think the barves will continue at this pace.  They're currently at a .619 winning percentage which is very difficult to sustain; their success is built largely on very young, very hot hitters, meaning it will be interesting to see how pitchers (especially NL East pitchers) respond once more experience and scouting data is available AND equally interesting to see if those young, hot hitters adapt; they've got several pitchers who are pitching above their career norms; and at the same time, the Nats have been under-performing (although they seem to have righted the ship, the team success has been on the backs of the pitchers rather than the offense, and we won't truly be in a happy place till we get some of these offense impact players back).

TL;DR: the braves are not going to implode, but they're also not as amazeballs as some like to think they are.

[mixedmutt]

Well I don't necessarily disagree with that. But it did seem like you were positing that the Nats have played a harder schedule than the Braves and that fact is also relevant to the current standings. From my PoV, for all intents and purposes, the braves and nats have had equally tough schedules. Trying to factor in the amount of time a team has spent on an airplane is stupid, I'm not discounting road games, but the braves have played more away games than us so I hardly see how "our away games were further away" is a legitimate argument and should have no bearing when discussing the current standings of the NL East.

I won't even get into the part where you said the toughest part of the Braves schedule is ahead of them....that obviously isn't true, unless you had strictly the month of September in mind, which I doubt you did.

[dcpatti]

Well I don't necessarily disagree with that. But it did seem like you were positing that the Nats have played a harder schedule than the Braves and that fact is also relevant to the current standings. From my PoV, for all intents and purposes, the braves and nats have had equally tough schedules. Trying to factor in the amount of time a team has spent on an airplane is stupid, I'm not discounting road games, but the braves have played more away games than us so I hardly see how "our away games were further away" is a legitimate argument and should have no bearing when discussing the current standings of the NL East.

I won't even get into the part where you said the toughest part of the Braves schedule is ahead of them....that obviously isn't true, unless you had strictly the month of September in mind, which I doubt you did.

Changing time zones has an undeniable impact.  Going back and forth between east and west coast twice within a matter of weeks is physically and mentally exhausting. It's not the distance or the plane ride; it's the time zones.  Even if both teams play the exact same opponents, whoever is playing in the west coast venues has it harder.

And July through September will be a handful for the Braves, with the exception of a few weeks.  Yankees, Brewers (twice), Dbacks (twice), Dodgers (assuming they are out of freefall by then), Red Sox, 3 series with us (potentially at/close to full strength). That's going to be harder for them than their current stretch is.

[Ray D]

I love how people on here repeatedly think. “I’m fine when I’m on a plane, long road trips are just a flimsy excuse for poor play,” as if it doesn’t make both logical sense and is borne out by evidence in every sport for years and years.

Not "poor play" but rather "where they are in the standings" is what he referred to. The point was that  it's the same grind for every team, so they are not disadvantaged any more than any other team.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Whatever, going from East to West isn't as big of deal as you make it out to be....your time zone argument could hold water for teams from the west coming east, but EC teams playing games at 4 PM EST shouldn't stop them from winning.

When you think you understand time changes but you get it completely backwards.

[mixedmutt]

LOL, you got me, I didn't put much thought into it, its just such a stupid argument, its one thing if they were getting off the plane that morning for every west coast game they played, but "they were jet lagged" has got to be the stupidest excuse I have ever heard for a teams place in the standings. Especially when we've only played 9 games out west, 6 of which were preceeded by a day off.

Even your list of tough opponents doesn't seem too daunting when you consider its over the course of FOUR months, not one.(you seem to have added September in your list, when I said September would be tough and was listing opponents for June through August)

:Like I said, grasping at straws. Both teams have had it equally rough in the schedule so far, both teams are exactly where they deserve to be. I'm getting tired of repeating myself, the only thing that makes any sense or holds any relevance found within your argument so far is that many braves players will regress, but much of that could be balanced out by additions which can/will be made to their roster.

What are you even saying here? That if we played all our games at home we would be in first place???

[JanuaryHos]

Yea, no. Markakis is not a .330+ hitter. Freeman isn't a .325 hitter. Albies has never been projected for this much power. On top of that, two of the Braves starters with low ERAs are outperforming their FIP by half a run. Newcomb has pitched against one good lineup, and Foltynewicz is a consistent 5 inning pitcher.

The Braves will come down to Earth. The Nationals have to be ready to play when they do.

The Braves counterpoint to this would be our Matt Adams (171 wRC+) and Howie Kendrick (116 wRC+). Even Trea doesn't strike me as a 120 wRC+ guy (more 105-110). Do you think those are going to stick but somehow a hitter as good as Freddie Freeman is going to fall off a cliff? We have some regression coming, too.

Markakis will definitely fall off, but Ender Inciarte is going to pick up that slack. He started the year miserably but has been steadily climbing back up (I have him on my fantasy team so I'm starting to notice this, plus all the steals). Albies has made constant changes to provide more power. He probably won't hit 50 homers like his current pace, but he's more than the ground ball slap hitter everyone thought he was coming up.

The biggest worry for me about the Braves is that they have a farm system that allows them to go out and get somebody to make a big impact. What happens when they go out and get Mike Moustakas and some relievers while we're sitting here looking around hoping to find some people to play the outifeld?

[mixedmutt]

The biggest worry for me about the Braves is that they have a farm system that allows them to go out and get somebody to make a big impact. What happens when they go out and get Mike Moustakas and some relievers while we're sitting here looking around hoping to find some people to play the outifeld?

My fear as well, the braves have been doing this when their front office wasn't even trying to win. What do you think is going to happen if they are still near first place at the end of june?

And we all know whats in store after this season, the braves have less than $40M committed next year, the peices to trade for whoever they want, and enough money to sign Harper this winter if they want him with plenty left over.

[dcpatti]

Not "poor play" but rather "where they are in the standings" is what he referred to. The point was that  it's the same grind for every team, so they are not disadvantaged any more than any other team.

Sure, at the end of the season it all evens out, but this isn’t the end of the season.

[Natsinpwc]

Braves' Mike Soroka on DL with shoulder strain - ESPN
https://apple.news/ApxhVUdDlTgKsoRWf4LV8hw

[catocony]

Strength of schedule is fairly meaningless.  If you played the Mets in the first couple of weeks, they were excellent.  They suck now, who knows how they'll be in a month or two.  There are way too many variables over a 162-game season.  One injury can send a good team into a tailspin.  Bad teams can go on hot streaks for a few weeks.  One team might face the Dodgers and get Kershaw on the mound, another team avoids him on a 4-game series. 

Other than how many home games are left for a given team - since that is a decent long-term variable that has meaning - I wouldn't pay too much attention to the rest. 

[Ray D]

Sure, at the end of the season it all evens out, but this isn’t the end of the season.

Seems to me the Mets travel schedule so far has been relatively easy.