Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[nfotiu]

Why wouldn’t they get their money- it’s not their problem someone bid too much for the rights

The Dodgers the majority owners of the network with Charter being the minority owner.  Rights fees average out to 300 million/year.  Revenue is optimistically 100 million a year.   Expenses are 10-20 million per year.  How much of that 200 million per year loss is their responsibility?  And how have they structured the finances so far?  Are they just letting the network go into huge debt hoping Directv and others will eventually cave?  Are they going to be on the hook for it eventually?   Do they absorb losses now and just be happy with 100-150 million in rights?   Do they ride it for now and bankrupt the sports network at some point and re-sell their rights?

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Pretty remarkable loss of market value over the past year.  Not quite Lehman Brothers big, but pretty bad 

[Natsinpwc]

I don’t doubt that Boras started at 540 million. Hard to believe there have been no further negotiations since then. Isn’t Nightengale often wrong???or am I mixing him up with someone else?

[aspenbubba]

Let him go. I can live with Eaton , Soto, Robles in the OF with MAT as the #4 . I think more importantly is Harper will have opt outs after 2 or 3 seasons here and I believe Rendon and Turner are more important to the teams long term success. We should extend both. We still need a 2B and a catcher and SP (2). RP are available as Rizzo always finds a stand out for a season or two (Albers , Hellickson, etc)

[Natsinpwc]

Let him go. I can live with Eaton , Soto, Robles in the OF with MAT as the #4 . I think more importantly is Harper will have opt outs after 2 or 3 seasons here and I believe Rendon and Turner are more important to the teams long term success. We should extend both. We still need a 2B and a catcher and SP (2). RP are available as Rizzo always finds a stand out for a season or two (Albers , Hellickson, etc)

Sounds like a plan. But they need to get Rendon signed this offseason. Don’t go through this again.

[HalfSmokes]

The Dodgers the majority owners of the network with Charter being the minority owner.  Rights fees average out to 300 million/year.  Revenue is optimistically 100 million a year.   Expenses are 10-20 million per year.  How much of that 200 million per year loss is their responsibility?  And how have they structured the finances so far?  Are they just letting the network go into huge debt hoping Directv and others will eventually cave?  Are they going to be on the hook for it eventually?   Do they absorb losses now and just be happy with 100-150 million in rights?   Do they ride it for now and bankrupt the sports network at some point and re-sell their rights?

I read the deal as time warner (now charter) paying the network a set price in exchange for distribution rights. 

[Slateman]

Wow .... both of those looks .... wow

[Slateman]

25 year contract, right?

[PowerBoater69]

I don’t doubt that Boras started at 540 million. Hard to believe there have been no further negotiations since then. Isn’t Nightengale often wrong???or am I mixing him up with someone else?

A certain segment of the Nats fan base bashes most of the national MLB writers because they don't parrot the Lerner/Rizzo company line. In this case I suspect that the info came from the Nats FO to explain why no deal has been signed.

[Natsinpwc]

A certain segment of the Nats fan base bashes most of the national MLB writers because they don't parrot the Lerner/Rizzo company line. In this case I suspect that the info came from the Nats FO to explain why no deal has been signed.

Ok. I know some of these guys are more accurate than others.

I suspect he will be back because the Lerner’s like how he draws the fans.

[HalfSmokes]

A certain segment of the Nats fan base bashes most of the national MLB writers because they don't parrot the Lerner/Rizzo company line. In this case I suspect that the info came from the Nats FO to explain why no deal has been signed.

I don’t doubt his ‘buy it now’ number is insane- he was always going to test free agency

[dcpatti]

If this alleged $540 million number was discussed in 2016 as reported, that was 2 years ago, when Harper was 23, so we'd be talking a 12 year deal, maybe 14 years.  That's $45 million/year on a 12-year gig, $38 million on a 14-year gig, and really not all that unreasonable as a starting point for a negotiation.  It's still a ridiculous amount of money but the AAV aint all that much higher than the 10/350 figure that keeps popping up.

[HalfSmokes]

If this alleged $540 million number was discussed in 2016 as reported, that was 2 years ago, when Harper was 23, so we'd be talking a 12 year deal, maybe 14 years.  That's $45 million/year on a 12-year gig, $38 million on a 14-year gig, and really not all that unreasonable as a starting point for a negotiation.  It's still a ridiculous amount of money but the AAV aint all that much higher than the 10/350 figure that keeps popping up.

if he wants to test free agency, but the team wants to negotiate, maybe he just throws out a figure to get the team to leave him alone?

[Slateman]

If this alleged $540 million number was discussed in 2016 as reported, that was 2 years ago, when Harper was 23, so we'd be talking a 12 year deal, maybe 14 years.  That's $45 million/year on a 12-year gig, $38 million on a 14-year gig, and really not all that unreasonable as a starting point for a negotiation.  It's still a ridiculous amount of money but the AAV aint all that much higher than the 10/350 figure that keeps popping up.

10/350 cripples this team for the next three years.

[spidernat]

$540 million! I suppose that was over 12 years?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Why wouldn’t they get their money- it’s not their problem someone bid too much for the rights

bankruptcy of the entity that bought the rights?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This.

He only put up superstar numbers one year. He has been very good.

He is not so great defensively and certainly not a CF. Still makes throws to wrong places. Argues ball and strike call unnecessarily. Makes dumb comments such as “Syracuse” and “Realmuto”. Doesn’t seem to be a team leader. Long slumps at the plate where he seems unable to adjust. This is not hate. Just facts and a viewpoint.

Is he worth $20-25 million. Yes. $30?  Maybe.

I originally thought he would go to one of the LA teams but not so sure. He may just be back in a a key term deal or with a two year option. Can bet on himself that way.

If he does come Back what do they do re: Eaton and Robles and Taylor?

deal Eaton, bring Taylor back for 1 more year, play Robles.  Figure you decline arb on Taylor in 2020, and add that savings along with the RZ coming off the books to pay for Rendon.

[HalfSmokes]

bankruptcy of the entity that bought the rights?

I read the reporting as saying that the bulk of the money was time warner/charter guaranteeing payment to the RSN for distribution rights. If that's the case it's a terrible deal, but not enough to bankrupt a cable company

[UMDNats]

Harper's Instagram this morning (a series of 9 posts to make one big image of him leaving the field) basically says, "See ya, DC, and remember, it's the Lerners who don't want me."

(I do believe he'd like to stay here long-term, but also believe Boras told him to push up that narrative the last week)

[Ray D]

  That's $45 million/year on a 12-year gig, $38 million on a 14-year gig, and really not all that unreasonable as a starting point for a negotiation.

Not unreasonable?  It's damn insulting.  I would immediately halt negotiation and tell them to go freak themselves, and if that figure is accurate I'm sure that's what the Lerners did.

[nfotiu]

I read the reporting as saying that the bulk of the money was time warner/charter guaranteeing payment to the RSN for distribution rights. If that's the case it's a terrible deal, but not enough to bankrupt a cable company

You might be right, I'm not sure.   If that's the case though, then what is the reason for making the Dodgers the owner of the TV network and not just paying the Dodgers directly?

[HalfSmokes]

You might be right, I'm not sure.   If that's the case though, then what is the reason for making the Dodgers the owner of the TV network and not just paying the Dodgers directly?

avoiding revenue sharing? I'm just guessing though

[PowerBoater69]

Not unreasonable?  It's damn insulting.  I would immediately halt negotiation and tell them to go freak themselves, and if that figure is accurate I'm sure that's what the Lerners did.

Completely goes against this idea that he'll give us a home town discount, the reality was that he wanted the Nats to pay a premium to get him back.

[nfotiu]

Completely goes against this idea that he'll give us a home town discount, the reality was that he wanted the Nats to pay a premium to get him back.

That's taking it a bit far.  He and Boras wants what he thinks his market value was.  The problem with getting a deal done is that I imagine that Boras and the Lerners likely have a huge discrepancy in what they think he's worth on the open market.  There is evidence that free agent signings are correcting downwards to reflect some the new business realities.   I doubt Boras and other agents are accepting that is true.   Then there is the question of what Bryce Harper really is.  He could hit .220 and be injured for half the next 5 years, or win 3 MVPs and become a first ballot HOFer.   Boras wants to get paid like he is the latter, but offers will probably be based on projections somewhere in between.   

I don't begrudge either side on this one.  It was a deal that was destined not to get done.  I think the Nats will be players on the open market, but probably not the front runners. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I consider him still a potential superstar player. Winning a HR Derby doesn't hack it! This season was the first he has driven in 100 runs (and that's the "quietest" 100 RBIs you'll see, as reflected in the Nats record). As I've said, I can think of a number of current Nats I'd rather see at the plate in a crunch situation. His BA leaves a whole lot to be desired (to include sitting around .220 for half the season).

He won a MVP.  I think that is what draws the Superstar label and not a HR Derby.