Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[NJ Ave]

I honestly think we are making too much about the average when the OPS is there.

He's a very good player, of course. He's struggled through the first third of the season and is still 25th in MLB in batting runs added according to Fangraphs. But when you start to think about the contract he wants it raises questions. I was listening to Grant Paulsen doing the postgame yesterday. Someone started nagging about Bryce and Grant was like, he's still a top-5 hitter you want on your team. And the guy says, what??? and Grant tries to make him name 5 hitters you want more than Bryce. Stupid broadcasters trick so the guy couldn't get to them all when put on the spot.

But here goes: Trout, Betts, Jose Ramirez, Freeman, Machado, Judge, Bryant, Arenado, Lindor, Altuve. There are 10 players there that I would take over Bryce without even thinking twice. The oldest are Freeman and Altuve at 28 and Arenado at 27. The others are Bryce's age or younger.

You just can't separate Bryce from the contract he's seeking. It's not that he's not valuable, or a good player, but unless we're at a place where every top-15 hitter in baseball deserves a contract like Bryce wants, its just too expensive.

[GburgNatsFan]

And the guy named at least five. Grant was discomforted. To Grant's credit, he did give the guy a lot of props as he ended the call.

He's a very good player, of course. He's struggled through the first third of the season and is still 25th in MLB in batting runs added according to Fangraphs. But when you start to think about the contract he wants it raises questions. I was listening to Grant Paulsen doing the postgame yesterday. Someone started nagging about Bryce and Grant was like, he's still a top-5 hitter you want on your team. And the guy says, what??? and Grant tries to make him name 5 hitters you want more than Bryce. Stupid broadcasters trick so the guy couldn't get to them all when put on the spot.

But here goes: Trout, Betts, Jose Ramirez, Freeman, Machado, Judge, Bryant, Arenado, Lindor, Altuve. There are 10 players there that I would take over Bryce without even thinking twice. The oldest are Freeman and Altuve at 28 and Arenado at 27. The others are Bryce's age or younger.

You just can't separate Bryce from the contract he's seeking. It's not that he's not valuable, or a good player, but unless we're at a place where every top-15 hitter in baseball deserves a contract like Bryce wants, its just too expensive.

[NJ Ave]

And the guy named at least five. Grant was discomforted. To Grant's credit, he did give the guy a lot of props as he ended the call.

He was doing well at first but then got to Correa, realized he was on rocky ground, and dropped it He didn't even get Mike Trout's name in there.

Grant is a good guy, and did give him props for a good call. I think the other point he made was about whether a guy like Brian Goodwin will have to become trade bait when/if everyone is healthy?

[GburgNatsFan]

He was doing very well. Put on the spot like that, I might have sputtered out Betts and Altuve before I brain-locked.

He was doing well at first but then got to Correa, realized he was on rocky ground, and dropped it He didn't even get Mike Trout's name in there.

Grant is a good guy, and did give him props for a good call. I think the other point he made was about whether a guy like Brian Goodwin will have to become trade bait when/if everyone is healthy?

[PowerBoater69]

that picture should be in the 'things that are better than off days' thread.

I'll make it a K for game days.

[spidernat]

He was doing very well. Put on the spot like that, I might have sputtered out Betts and Altuve before I brain-locked.

No Trout before the brain freeze?

[NJ Ave]

No Trout before the brain freeze?

The guy on the radio got to Correa and never got to Trout!

[hotshot]

I honestly think we are making too much about the average when the OPS is there.  I'm more concerned if June looks more like May than April.  The K/BB ratio is way out of whack.  He seems frustrated, swinging at balls because pitchers know not to throw him strikes, and pulling into shifts rather than punishing shifts by taking outside pitches to left.

Can't hit a HR without swinging. And he knows the HR numbers have to be there to get paid.

[GburgNatsFan]

I don't do well put on the spot. I never see Trout play. I know he's great, but AL Cali teams just don't jump to mind.

No Trout before the brain freeze?

[UMDNats]

I honestly think we are making too much about the average when the OPS is there.  I'm more concerned if June looks more like May than April.  The K/BB ratio is way out of whack.  He seems frustrated, swinging at balls because pitchers know not to throw him strikes, and pulling into shifts rather than punishing shifts by taking outside pitches to left.

i don't disagree but the guy wants a $500 million contract and he's playing like a standarad $20-23 million a year guy.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

i don't disagree but the guy wants a $500 million contract and he's playing like a standarad $20-23 million a year guy.

I don't go $400MM, but if he ends up looking more like the hitter he was last year than the hitter he was in May, then I think he's looking at Stanton money (low 30s and opt outs).  Maybe a touch less, but if his last 4 seasons are 2015, 2017,  and maybe a .250 / .390 / .550 2018, that's a pretty good place to be at heading into free agency.

[spidernat]

I don't do well put on the spot. I never see Trout play. I know he's great, but AL Cali teams just don't jump to mind.

Understandable. You've been known to confuse people even while you're looking right at them so it makes sense you would choke when you're not looking at said person.

[UMDNats]

I don't go $400MM, but if he ends up looking more like the hitter he was last year than the hitter he was in May, then I think he's looking at Stanton money (low 30s and opt outs).  Maybe a touch less, but if his last 4 seasons are 2015, 2017,  and maybe a .250 / .390 / .550 2018, that's a pretty good place to be at heading into free agency.

He'll get paid, for sure, (I would guess he rakes in the 2nd half), I just wonder if there's enough of a market for him to get more than Stanton. I guess he gets $28-29 with opt outs from the Nats.

[spidernat]

The guy on the radio got to Correa and never got to Trout!

Is Trout underrated? It seems that people who only pay attention to the NL don't realize how great a player he is (see GBurg's comment).

[Optics]

I know BA may not be the end all be all in today's advanced metric age, but still, you can't hit in the .220s. I don't care what the other stats say, you gotta have a better batting average than that. That's unacceptable for ANY Major League starter let alone a guy who wants $300+ Million.

[Ray D]

Is Trout underrated? It seems that people who only pay attention to the NL don't realize how great a player he is (see GBurg's comment).

Trout goes unnoticed because he's signed through 2020 so the free-agent discussion isn't for another two years.  If he were in his walk year, all the talk that's now about Harper would instead be about him.

[bluestreak]

Trout goes unnoticed because he's signed through 2020 so the free-agent discussion isn't for another two years.  If he were in his walk year, all the talk that's now about Harper would instead be about him.

I genuinely wonder how much he would have gotten if he had hit free agency at 26. It would have been an astronomical amount of money.

[GburgNatsFan]

I know BA may not be the end all be all in today's advanced metric age, but still, you can't hit in the .220s. I don't care what the other stats say, you gotta have a better batting average than that. That's unacceptable for ANY Major League starter let alone a guy who wants $300+ Million.

Unless all your hits are multi-RBI homers. Then it might be okay.

[varoadking]

Royce is stealing the $20MM he's being paid this year...why would anyone want to up the ante?

[Natsinpwc]

Royce is stealing the $20MM he's being paid this year...why would anyone want to up the ante?

Potential.

[NatsAllThe Way]

Royce is stealing the $20MM he's being paid this year...why would anyone want to up the ante?

His dongs have upside.

[UMDNats]

Royce is stealing the $20MM he's being paid this year...why would anyone want to up the ante?

Imagine how many Harper jerseys the Mets could sell by signing him and stashing him in Vegas.

[HalfSmokes]

Potential.

By the time you’ve played long enough to hit free agency, you are what you are

[DPMOmaha]

By the time you’ve played long enough to hit free agency, you are what you are

Eh, most of the time. When you hit FA at 25, there's still room for evolving and maturation. We haven't seen peak Harper yet.

[Natsinpwc]

By the time you’ve played long enough to hit free agency, you are what you are

Guys get better sometimes. See Daniel Murphy.