Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[hotshot]

This is like saying “my friend got $8000 for his Rolex, so I should get that much for my Seiko”

Closer that throws 100 >>>>>>> corner outfielder.

See: Martinez, JD; Bruce, Jay. I know Bryce is better than those guys long term, but for a rental? He and Martinez are a wash.

Bats aren’t bringing a premium on the trade market like pitchers in general and relievers specifically.

Perception (if it still holds) is that Bryce is not just any corner OF, but a surefire HoF great! Consequently he should bring at least as much as Chapman did.

[bluestreak]

Perception (if it still holds) is that Bryce is not just any corner OF, but a surefire HoF great! Consequently he should bring at least as much as Chapman did.

I might agree with you if it came with years of control. But there is nothing that has happened in baseball in the past 3 years that would lead one to believe that Harper would get the same haul as Chapman got. The O’s arent getting that haul for Machado and he’s all the things you said about Harper except he’s better and plays a premium position.

[Slateman]

This is like saying “my friend got $8000 for his Rolex, so I should get that much for my Seiko”

Closer that throws 100 >>>>>>> corner outfielder.

See: Martinez, JD; Bruce, Jay. I know Bryce is better than those guys long term, but for a rental? He and Martinez are a wash.

Bats aren’t bringing a premium on the trade market like pitchers in general and relievers specifically.

I might agree with you if it came with years of control. But there is nothing that has happened in baseball in the past 3 years that would lead one to believe that Harper would get the same haul as Chapman got. The O’s arent getting that haul for Machado and he’s all the things you said about Harper except he’s better and plays a premium position.

This.

However, this year there is a dearth of tradeable OF bats. Who is going to be dealing? Maybe the Dodgers deal Puig. Pirates deal Marte? Pillar is having a good year.

Who knows.

Is there any chance Harper is trying to hide another injury?

Right now, he's hurting the rest of the lineup. Trea Turner is on pace for 45 steals, despite having a higher OBP and playing more games. But he's clearly not willing to run because he doesn't want to "take the bat" out of Harper's hands. I get no one is hitting well, but Harper is quite noticeable. Move him to 4th. Let Turner and Difo steal some bases at the top of the lineup and see if they can manufacture some runs.

[hotshot]

This.

However, this year there is a dearth of tradeable OF bats. Who is going to be dealing? Maybe the Dodgers deal Puig. Pirates deal Marte? Pillar is having a good year.

Who knows.

Is there any chance Harper is trying to hide another injury?

If he has an injury, it's most likely to his pride. I'll bet, though, that he does go on the DL for something, and soon. 

[hotshot]

As for what we might "get" for a future HoF player, it'll be a good test of who's the better GM -- Cashman or Rizzo.

[Ray D]

Is there any chance Harper is trying to hide another injury?

In terms of his prospects for getting the contract he wants, I think he would be hurting his chances more by hiding an injury and playing poorly, than by  going on the DL until he's 100%.

[HalfSmokes]

As for what we might "get" for a future HoF player, it'll be a good test of who's the better GM -- Cashman or Rizzo.

yep, that's the test, not rings or pennants, but the haul for a rental

[hotshot]

yep, that's the test, not rings or pennants, but the haul for a rental

Unfair to compare Rizzo and Cashman on rings and pennants. NY has such a resources advantage over DC going for them. But ... the "haul" for a HoF OF rental (who plays every day) vs a non-HoF reliever (who doesn't) is a fairer test.

[Slateman]

Unfair to compare Rizzo and Cashman on rings and pennants. NY has such a resources advantage over DC going for them. But ... the "haul" for a HoF OF rental (who plays every day) vs a non-HoF reliever (who doesn't) is a fairer test.

The HoF OF rental is hitting .224

[hotshot]

The HoF OF rental is hitting .224

I appreciate that but when the public was asked whether they considered BH a "superstar," the answer (surprising to me) was a resounding "Yes." Wish I could recall who did that survey. It was recent and placed Bryce in the same company as Trout, Altuve, Correa, Bryant, et. al. In other words, a future HoF player.

Still think most GMs would see Bryce as a young, long-term building block. Hence, the value, even if a rental, I think is still there.

[NJ Ave]

The HoF OF rental is hitting .224

Right. No one cares if he's going to the HOF or not. Basically anyone can be a HOFer for 2 months, or a replacement-level player, so you wouldn't pay a premium for Bryce over another LH-hitting OF just because he might be a HOFer.

Frankly, I think you could argue that people would shy away from acquiring him as a rental because he...really doesn't seem to deal with interruptions in his routine that well? If getting intentionally walked too often or having a sore hammy causes him to go into a tailspin, what would happen if he had to uproot himself and move to another city for 2-3 months? Maybe good things, maybe bad things, but I don't think GMs like to give up huge prospect packages for uncertainty.

[bluestreak]

Still think most GMs would see Bryce as a young, long-term building block. Hence, the value, even if a rental, I think is still there.

Rental is the exact opposite of building block

[varoadking]

Rizzo could have had Mike Trout...and none of the drama...

[dcpatti]

It's a moot point because the chances of the Nats actually trading Harper are pretty low; all they have to do is look at Pittsburgh and see what happens to attendance when you trade away a fan favorite.  Yes, some of the early numbers are bad because of weather and expected poor performance, and we haven't had the midsummer bump yet, but they're also feeling a lot of anger from the fan base too.

[imref]

This.

However, this year there is a dearth of tradeable OF bats. Who is going to be dealing? Maybe the Dodgers deal Puig. Pirates deal Marte? Pillar is having a good year.

Who knows.

Is there any chance Harper is trying to hide another injury?

Right now, he's hurting the rest of the lineup. Trea Turner is on pace for 45 steals, despite having a higher OBP and playing more games. But he's clearly not willing to run because he doesn't want to "take the bat" out of Harper's hands. I get no one is hitting well, but Harper is quite noticeable. Move him to 4th. Let Turner and Difo steal some bases at the top of the lineup and see if they can manufacture some runs.

I know we've debated "protection" to death, but I don't see why any pitcher would give Harper anything near the strike zone to hit,  I'd be curious to see pitch maps to see if pitchers are simply throwing him junk.

[dracnal]

Rizzo could have had Mike Trout...and none of the drama...

So could 20+ GMs. Hindsight is easy.

[HalfSmokes]

It's a moot point because the chances of the Nats actually trading Harper are pretty low; all they have to do is look at Pittsburgh and see what happens to attendance when you trade away a fan favorite.  Yes, some of the early numbers are bad because of weather and expected poor performance, and we haven't had the midsummer bump yet, but they're also feeling a lot of anger from the fan base too.

I don't think DC fans really express anger so much as apathy and I think winning has a much stronger correlation to caring than star power. 

[hotshot]

Rizzo could have had Mike Trout...and none of the drama...

Or Machado.

[hotshot]

Rental is the exact opposite of building block

With the Dodgers, I'd bet they'd sign him long-term quickly. Different universe for them and Yanks, Cubs and Red Sox.

[HalfSmokes]

With the Dodgers, I'd bet they'd sign him long-term quickly. Different universe for them and Yanks, Cubs and Red Sox.

he's basically at free agency, why on earth does he forgo it?

[More of #34]

I was sitting a few feet from Harper in right field yesterday.  Sure looked okay to me.

[nfotiu]

When he's been playing hurt in the past, his power fades.  For whatever reason, at the end of April he decided he didn't like taking walks any more and was going to take a more aggressive approach.  I think he's dialed that back some recently, but is still chasing some bad pitches, and has got himself out of sorts and kind of lost at the plate.

As for trading.  First of all, there is no way we trade him unless we're completely out of it, and I don't think that is all that likely.  If we are completely out of it, he is probably is really sucking and no one will want him as a rental.  Lastly, closers usually have way more bidders than corner outfield bats, so there is no way we are getting very much for him as a rental unless a bunch of contenders all lose their sluggers to injury.

[varoadking]

So could 20+ GMs. Hindsight is easy.

None of the others took Drew Storen...

Your move... 

[dracnal]

None of the others took Drew Storen...

Your move... 

Touche. However, we needed a closer at the time and he was highest ranked. He wasn't that terrible prior to the playoffs breaking him mentally.

[mixedmutt]

Are we really talking about what we could get for Harper, have you all just completely given up? Maybe we should at least wait to see how Soto performs, we could be ruining him right now.