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Author Topic: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.  (Read 159846 times)

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Offline monkeyhit

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #450 on: July 22, 2015, 10:17:51 am »
Williams is just stupid. Runners on 2nd and 3rd, none out in a 2-1 game and he brings in his infield! The Mets announcers, who are very good, questioned him immediately. Couldn't believe it. Wiliams lucked with the first batter, who popped up, but then Campbell hit a soft liner that Danny easily would have caught if he was in correct position. Result, winning 2-1 is now losing 3-2.

They were also questioning his weird use of relievers all night. He has a lot to answer for, and when I saw him screaming at the ump for calling one of de los Santos' pitches a ball, I could tell he knew he had blown this game with dumb moves. He's feeling the heat.
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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #451 on: July 22, 2015, 01:45:24 pm »
Quote from: blue911 on July 22, 2015, 10:02:23 am
Tango/Lichtman say your worst hitter bats 9th.
Just one of many articles if you google MLB batting order optimization. 

This is by Sky Kalkman, who attributes it to The Book by Tango/ Lichtman / Dolphin.

 http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
Quote

That Whole Hitting The Pitcher Eighth Thing

The Cardinals and Brewers have hit the pitcher eighth in the past, and it's actually a smart, albeit insignificant, strategy. Yes, giving an awful hitter more plate appearances by hitting him higher in the lineup is costly, but the benefit of having a better number nine hitter interacting with the top of the lineup is worth the trade-off, by about two runs per season. By putting a decent hitter at the bottom of the order, the top spots in the lineup will have more runners on base to advance with walks and hits and drive in with hits.

This strategy isn't as worthwhile in the American League, because even the worst position player will be on base significantly more often than a pitcher when the top of the order comes around. Only bat the worst hitter eighth when he's significantly worse than anybody else -- maybe someone like Adam Everett or Tony Pena Jr.
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Offline houston-nat

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #452 on: July 22, 2015, 02:10:36 pm »
Quote from: monkeyhit on July 22, 2015, 10:17:51 am
Wiliams lucked with the first batter, who popped up
Very lucky. That pop-up was almost out of reach because the guys were playing in.

There's no good reason for that infield in decision.
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Offline mitlen

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #453 on: July 22, 2015, 03:43:38 pm »
Extend Williams for one day.
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Offline Matugi

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #454 on: July 22, 2015, 03:48:33 pm »
Well, he actually used one of his better relievers in a high leverage situation today, turning to Thornton in the 8th, so that's...something.
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Offline blue911

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #455 on: July 22, 2015, 04:04:24 pm »
Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 22, 2015, 01:45:24 pm
Just one of many articles if you google MLB batting order optimization. 

This is by Sky Kalkman, who attributes it to The Book by Tango/ Lichtman / Dolphin.

 http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Ha! I was going by somebody else quoting the Book.
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Offline mimontero88

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #456 on: July 22, 2015, 04:08:01 pm »
Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 22, 2015, 09:48:48 am
difference between best and worst batting orders is estimated at about 0.5 runs.  It is marginal, and most traditional orders aren't so stupid to approach the worst possible orders.  It is probably better to focus on the talents of your roster.  Leading off Taylor, followed by Espinosa /Harper /Escobar, means a lot of innings with Harper coming up with 2 outs and nobody or one guy on, and then Escobar not hitting in the same inning as Harper. hitting Taylor 9th, Espinosa leadoff, followed by Harper and Escobar or vice versa gives you at least one inning when Harper and Escobar bat together, gives them more PAs, and gives them a better shot at coming up with 2 men on base than having the pitcher 9th.
0.5 runs is marginal?  That's 81 runs a year.  I understand no one is using the worst possible orders so you can't actually add 81 runs to any lineup through optimization but batting order is certainly far from arbitrary.
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Offline blue911

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #457 on: July 22, 2015, 04:23:37 pm »
Quote from: mimontero88 on July 22, 2015, 04:08:01 pm
0.5 runs is marginal?  That's 81 runs a year.  I understand no one is using the worst possible orders so you can't actually add 81 runs to any lineup through optimization but batting order is certainly far from arbitrary.

10 runs is what The Book estimates the difference between the best and worst over an entire season. The nagging about the line up should be about how a manager thinks about what is or isn't important in the offense. 
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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #458 on: July 22, 2015, 04:24:54 pm »
Quote from: blue911 on July 22, 2015, 04:23:37 pm
10 runs is what The Book estimates the difference between the best and worst over an entire season. The nagging about the line up should be about how a manager thinks about what is or isn't important in the offense.
I think one could say it's statistically insignificant.
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Offline blue911

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #459 on: July 22, 2015, 04:25:46 pm »
Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 22, 2015, 04:24:54 pm
I think one could say it's statistically insignificant.

10 runs is one win, so it isn't insignificant. It just isn't a reason to get bent out of shape.
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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #460 on: July 22, 2015, 04:28:20 pm »
Quote from: blue911 on July 22, 2015, 04:25:46 pm
10 runs is one win, so it isn't insignificant. It just isn't a reason to get bent out of shape.
Just thinking that if it's only been 10 runs a season over the time in use it could very well end up being -10 runs over the next equal amount of times down the road.
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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #461 on: July 22, 2015, 05:19:32 pm »
don't know where I got the .5 runs.  I'd pretend to listen to Blue by making good eye contact, except he doesn't have a camera here.  Or does he?
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Offline Matugi

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #462 on: July 24, 2015, 10:47:52 pm »
If you are going to go with a lefty, why the freak would you go with Solis over Rivero or Thornton?

This one's on Matt, plain and simple.
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Offline Ray D

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #463 on: July 25, 2015, 10:16:38 am »
Quote from: Matugi on July 24, 2015, 10:47:52 pm

This one's on Matt, plain and simple.
This one's on Scherzer in my opinion.
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Offline Matugi

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #464 on: July 25, 2015, 01:43:53 pm »
Quote from: Ray D on July 25, 2015, 10:16:38 am
This one's on Scherzer in my opinion.

The game was tied when Scherzer left.
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Online Slateman

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #465 on: July 25, 2015, 01:49:15 pm »
Quote from: Matugi on July 25, 2015, 01:43:53 pm
The game was tied when Scherzer left.

After he gave up three freaking home runs. His team had a lead going in to the fifth inning. Scherzer blew it.
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Offline Matugi

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #466 on: July 25, 2015, 01:50:30 pm »
Quote from: Slateman on July 25, 2015, 01:49:15 pm
After he gave up three freaking home runs. His team had a lead going in to the fifth inning. Scherzer blew it.

Yes, he was bad last night, no question about it.

This does not change my point about the game being tied when he left.
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Offline varoadking

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #467 on: July 25, 2015, 01:52:34 pm »
Quote from: Matugi on July 25, 2015, 01:50:30 pm
Yes, he was bad last night, no question about it.

This does not change my point about the game being tied when he left.

They were down when he "left"...he never went back with the game tied...
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Offline Matugi

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #468 on: July 25, 2015, 01:53:31 pm »
Quote from: varoadking on July 25, 2015, 01:52:34 pm
They were down when he "left"...he never went back with the game tied...

Cool, let's argue on semantics all day, shall we?
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Online Slateman

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #469 on: July 25, 2015, 01:59:17 pm »
Quote from: varoadking on July 25, 2015, 01:52:34 pm
They were down when he "left"...he never went back with the game tied...

Let's argue that Scherzer gave up three home runs. When you have to pull your 200 million dollar ace before the 6th inning, you're going to lose.
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Offline varoadking

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #470 on: July 25, 2015, 02:00:18 pm »
Quote from: Matugi on July 25, 2015, 01:53:31 pm
Cool, let's argue on semantics all day, shall we?

He sucked...and he got paid $1MM to do it...over 5 innings.  That's not semantics...that real...
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Offline whytev

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #471 on: July 31, 2015, 09:55:08 pm »
FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THINGS HOLY YOU HAVE TWO CLOSERS. WHY THE HECK NOT USE ONE TIED IN THE 8TH?
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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #472 on: July 31, 2015, 10:00:39 pm »
Quote from: whytev on July 31, 2015, 09:55:08 pm
FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THINGS HOLY YOU HAVE TWO CLOSERS. WHY THE HECK NOT USE ONE TIED IN THE 8TH?
He's saving both of them in case one blows it and he needs to use the other later.
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Offline Kevrock

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #473 on: July 31, 2015, 10:25:25 pm »
Quote from: whytev on July 31, 2015, 09:55:08 pm
FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THINGS HOLY YOU HAVE TWO CLOSERS. WHY THE HECK NOT USE ONE TIED IN THE 8TH?

Well, it's working so far. My style's unorthodox, but of course it rocks.
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Offline deeznatz

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015)
« Reply #474 on: July 31, 2015, 10:45:46 pm »
Harpers such tool. You freakin moron
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