The Bryce Harper Compendium (2015)

[welch]

I think the brick walls at Wrigley Field might be a little harder than the black fence.

Only softening bit is the hedge.

[Slateman]

Harper rests only when he's thrown out a game.

Is that why he gets tossed? He needs an off day?

[tomterp]

That would be my point. He's supposed to be this once in a generation talent. A-Rod like (in his early years). Mickey Mantle/Joe DiMaggio. And so far, his career is comparable to JD Drew. All those guys were well established in their fourth year.

Bryce has always been considered great ... for his age and experience. For a 19 year old, he was amazing. For a guy under the drinking age, he was top 20 all time. But now he's 22 and he's no longer in that same realm. When everyone took that next step, Bryce really hasn't. In fact, I think you could make the argument that he is getting worse at the plate. Same average, similar power numbers, but a huge increase in strikeouts. On top of that, he fields his position like someone who needed a lot more time in the minors. He is terrible at running the bases.

Honestly, I'm beginning to seriously wonder if Bryce will ever even come close to the hype.

 

[tomterp]

Kris Bryant is 9 months older than Bryce.

[GburgNatsFan]

I think part of the problem with an ivy covered wall is that you're not really sure where he brick is - so you brace too early and by the time you hit the wall, your hand/arm is in an odd position.

I was just cutting through the bullcrap.

First, what the hell is "ill effects"?  Did he mean Ill FX, the name of new hip hop star that we've never heard of?

99% of major league baseball players could have done what he did today with NO EFFECTS!  He used his hand to brace himself as he was approaching a wall. He wasn't in a dead sprint because he'd just caught the ball.  It shouldn't even be a question about whether he's hurt or not, for goodness sake.  Giancarlo Stanton just did a similar thing in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh has those awful black medal fences inside the outfield fence.  You could see Stanton using his hand to brace himself and hear it because Giancarlo is a very big man but I'll bet he doesn't have ill effects...especially considering he hit a tape measured homerun on his next at bat.

Harper's threshold for injury seems to be a lot lower than other players.  I'm glad he dumped Kay Varner because with all the heaving and panting and bending and twisting...and bracing involved, sex might actually kill him!

[Slateman]

Still waiting to see if he can sustain.

[Smithian]

Even if Harper slows down (he will), I will be very happy if he ends season with 145+ games played and an OPS north of .900. If he ends up over 1.000 I will be thrilled.

He's only going to get better.

[tomterp]

Might there be another milestone for Harper this week?

He may face Toronto pitcher Roberto Osuna, who at 20 would be the first pitcher he's faced in the majors that's younger than he is.

(thanks to Zuckerman for that tidbit).

[zimm_da_kid]

Might there be another milestone for Harper this week?

He may face Toronto pitcher Roberto Osuna, who at 20 would be the first pitcher he's faced in the majors that's younger than he is.

(thanks to Zuckerman for that tidbit).

doubtful that the jays leave in a 20 years young right handed reliever to face Harper late in a game.

[tomterp]

doubtful that the jays leave in a 20 years young right handed reliever to face Harper late in a game.

What if the game isn't close?

[NJ Ave]

an OPS north of .900.

He literally could do this by OPSing .750 the rest of the year.

[Smithian]

He literally could do this by OPSing .750 the rest of the year.

Baseball is a season of peaks and valleys. He's in a massive, massive peak. He'll cool off significantly. A .900 OPS would still be a good if slightly disappointing result. I was more thinking around .950.

[Smithian]

What if the game isn't close?

Then Harper will get a garbage inning home run.

[NJ Ave]

Baseball is a season of peaks and valleys. He's in a massive, massive peak. He'll cool off significantly. A .900 OPS would still be a good if slightly disappointing result. I was more thinking around .950.

I know it's peaks and valleys, but "projection" wise, you would not expect him to OPS .750 the rest of the season. You'd expect him to OPS whatever his true talent level is, regardless of what he's done up to this point.

For example, the updated Fangraphs projections have him somewhere in the .380/.530 range for the remainder of the season. A .900 OPS true talent level sounds about right. Adding that to his hot start would leave him right around 1.000 for the year.

[nfotiu]

In the last 17 games, he's only had 3 games in which he wasn't over 1.0 OPS for the game, and one of those was the game he was kicked out after 1 AB. 

As long as he keeps taking the walks, he's got a good shot at staying above the 1.0 OPS.

[Minty Fresh]

Still waiting to see if he can sustain.

Are you also still waiting to see if water remains wet?

[BigMeech]

In order to lock him up, Old Man Lerner should just bequeath his entire fortune to Bryce Harper.

[Slateman]

Are you also still waiting to see if water remains wet?

He's done this before, ends up falling off the Earth or getting hurt. I simply want to see him stay healthy and maintain a consistent level of output.

[Minty Fresh]

He's done this before, ends up falling off the Earth or getting hurt. I simply want to see him stay healthy and maintain a consistent level of output.

No.  He has not done THIS.  The fact that they're comparing this (albeit brief) run to BABE RUTH indicates that not only has he not done THIS, but not many in the history of the game have had a run like THIS.

He won't sustain THIS because nobody ever has. 

[houston-nat]

He won't sustain THIS because nobody ever has. 

Exactly. He was batting well over .500. Nobody can have a .500 season.

[Slateman]

No.  He has not done THIS.  The fact that they're comparing this (albeit brief) run to BABE RUTH indicates that not only has he not done THIS, but not many in the history of the game have had a run like THIS.

He won't sustain THIS because nobody ever has. 

Sustain a productive season. He's never done that either. He's either been injured or goes in to some black hole of a slump and can't get out of it.

[NJ Ave]

Sustain a productive season. He's never done that either. He's either been injured or goes in to some black hole of a slump and can't get out of it.

LOL at two 4-WAR seasons with .270 averages, good walk rates and .200+ ISOs at age 19-20 being "unproductive" seasons.

[houston-nat]

LOL at two 4-WAR seasons with .270 averages, good walk rates and .200+ ISOs at age 19-20 being "unproductive" seasons.

Seriously, the dude has had two very good seasons already.

[Smithian]

Bryce Harper has been a good player before this season, just not as amazing as we'd hoped. It isn't like he was a Tim Beckham like bust. He was the youngest player in the majors, fought some injuries, and this was still a better team with him in the lineup. Everyone knew he was going to turn into a really darn good player, even if we didn't expect him to be this good this season

[Slateman]

LOL at two 4-WAR seasons with .270 averages, good walk rates and .200+ ISOs at age 19-20 being "unproductive" seasons.

Did I say he was unproductive? I'm talking about sustaining a productive season. In 2014 and 2013, he didn't stay healthy. In 2012, he went in to an awful slump and basically disappeared after two months (the Yankees series).