The Bryce Harper Compendium (2013)

[blue911]

I get drooly fantasizing about Span and Werth getting on at a .375 OBP clip ahead of Harper-Zim-ALR-Des.  If Span/Werth get on at .340 we'll be ok, but if they get on at .380, we'll be a force!  (Total mindfacting probably, someone smarter than me can figure out how many runs, and thus wins, an extra .040 OBP out of your top two hitters amounts to.)

Very roughly it's once a week more times on base.

[Slateman]

I love how many people on here think Span is going to hit .230 when his career average is .284.

Because 29 year olds in their prime always drop off .055 points in average. It's embarrassing how many people are already hating on him on WNFF. For what? A slow start to ST?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/werthja01.shtml

It's happened before ....

[Lintyfresh85]

Except Werth was a career .260 hitter not .285 and was already at the end of his prime when he signed here. Nice try though.

[Tyler Durden]

Werth had a babip 40 points under his career average in 2011.  So can it happen?  Sure.  But I'm not sure why you would expect that to happen.  It's a fluky thing and you'd be just as likely to be right if you predict a babip 40 points above the career average. 

[Rick]

If he's batting .230 but getting on base at a .350 rate he'll be fine.  Which is unlikely, but the point is his batting average doesn't matter as long as he is getting on base.   If his OBP is .300 he won't leadoff long.

All of a sudden I feel like watching moneyball. 

[Rick]

Except Werth was a career .260 hitter not .285 and was already at the end of his prime when he signed here. Nice try though.

werth at the end of his prime when he signed? He only had 1 1/2 good-great seasons with the phillies. before that he platooned and had a broken wrist. Werth is protection in the lineup and certainly not an old man. lol but he does need to get that hand/wrist of his healed fast.

[blue911]

All of a sudden I feel like watching moneyball. 

You do know that Ned Hanlon had his players practice getting hit by the ball in order to get on base. That was in the mid 1890s

[Rick]

You do know that Ned Hanlon had his players practice getting hit by the ball in order to get on base. That was in the mid 1890s

im a fan of getting on base any way you can. if that means taking one for the team, so be it.

[Lintyfresh85]

werth at the end of his prime when he signed? He only had 1 1/2 good-great seasons with the phillies. before that he platooned and had a broken wrist. Werth is protection in the lineup and certainly not an old man. lol but he does need to get that hand/wrist of his healed fast.

Yes, 32 is the end of a ballplayers prime.

[Baseball is Life]

It's embarrassing how many people are already hating on him on WNFF. For what? A slow start to ST?

Panicking and posting are favorite activities on this board. You should know that.

[spidernat]

[Lintyfresh85]

It's comical and not worth a response.

Knorr already said what needed to be said. No need to pile on.

[NJ Ave]

Plus Zimmerman is a patient hitter who does well with two strikes

Good lord - you know there are ways to actually CHECK your assumptions these days.

Career .220/.279/.342 hitter with 2 strikes.

Regular Barry Bonds.

[Rick]

If the biggest problem the nats have is Denard Span, then the world series is ours! I love having this as the biggest problem.

[NJ Ave]

Of course, that's about 100 OPS points above league average, but considering Zimmerman overall is about 130 points above the league average, I wouldn't say he's any better/worse than most guys compared to his norm.

[Tyler Durden]

Good lord - you know there are ways to actually CHECK your assumptions these days.

Career .220/.279/.342 hitter with 2 strikes.

Regular Barry Bonds.

I did a search for all hitters who appeared in more than 100 games.

With two strikes against, Zim was 17th in baseball.

Hopefully this link works -

http://ow.ly/jiS60

edit - I should add that this was for 2012 OPS only.

Don't think the link worked.  Maybe this - http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_finder.cgi?type=b#gotresults&as=result_batter&offset=0&match=season&min_year_game=2012&max_year_game=2012&min_season=1&max_season=-1&min_age=0&max_age=99&isActive=either&split_1=situa%3Acount&sid_situa%3Aleado=situa%3Aleado%3Aany&sid_outcb%3Aoutcb=outcb%3Aoutcb%3Aany&sid_oppon%3Aoppon=oppon%3Aoppon%3Aany&sid_situa%3Atimes=situa%3Atimes%3Aany&sid_plato%3Aplato=plato%3Aplato%3Aany&sid_situa%3Abases=situa%3Abases%3Aany&sid_defp%3Adefp=defp%3Adefp%3Aany&sid_opptp%3Agbfb=opptp%3Agbfb%3Aany&sid_opptp%3Apower=opptp%3Apower%3Aany&sid_hitty%3Atraj=hitty%3Atraj%3Aany&sid_lineu%3Alineu=lineu%3Alineu%3Aany&sid_total%3Atotal=total%3Atotal%3Aany&sid_dates%3Ahalf=dates%3Ahalf%3Aany&sid_locat%3Astad=locat%3Astad%3Aany&sid_situa%3Ainnng=situa%3Ainnng%3Aany&sid_locat%3Asite=locat%3Asite%3Aany&sid_dates%3Amonth=dates%3Amonth%3Aany&sid_situa%3Acount=situa%3Acount%3ATwo+Strikes&sid_situa%3Aouts=situa%3Aouts%3Aany&sid_locat%3Ahmvis=locat%3Ahmvis%3Aany&sid_wpa%3Alever=wpa%3Alever%3Aany&sid_role%3Astsub=role%3Astsub%3Aany&sid_hitty%3Ahitlo=hitty%3Ahitlo%3Aany&sid_situa%3Aclutc=situa%3Aclutc%3Aany&c0gtlt=eq&c0val=0&orderby=OPS&sr_split_totals_choice=by_split&c1criteria=G&c1gtlt=gt&c1val=100&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&c3gtlt=eq&c3val=0&c4gtlt=eq&c4val=0&c5gtlt=eq&c5val=1.0&ajax=1&submitter=1

[tomterp]

Yes, 32 is the end of a ballplayers prime.

Not 31.75, not 32.25, but 32.0.

[tomterp]

Good lord - you know there are ways to actually CHECK your assumptions these days.

Career .220/.279/.342 hitter with 2 strikes.

Regular Barry Bonds.

You have to compare that to others in the same situation.  Of COURSE with 2 strikes you've already got two strikes against you. 

 

[Rick]

Not 31.75, not 32.25, but 32.0.

 

[Lintyfresh85]

Not 31.75, not 32.25, but 32.0.

Stop being so anal.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10058

Last peak for hitters is often their age 31 season.

So, go ahead, laugh it up with the 31.75 nonsense... the aging curves show typically a players last real peak comes at 31 and goes downhill from there... which is why saying Werth was past his peak years at 32 is not an incorrect statement.

[Nathan]

[tomterp]

Stop being so anal.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10058

Last peak for hitters is often their age 31 season.

C'mon, who's being anal here?  You proclaim with absolute certainty that "32 is the end of a ballplayers prime".

No room for debate, no variability among players, just an absolute certainty.   

[spidernat]

You have to compare that to others in the same situation.

A dose of sanity.

[Vega]

[Rick]

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=age27myth