Extend Rendon

[Natsinpwc]

I'd bet they do next year, two previous years over and this year they'll end up spending 99% of the cap space. But you are right that extra revenue probably won't result in extra spending.

They could use it to get a top flight manager rather than shopping at Walmart.

[Slateman]

I'd bet they do next year, two previous years over and this year they'll end up spending 99% of the cap space. But you are right that extra revenue probably won't result in extra spending.

They wont. If anything, they'll spend less. Not really worth it to spend and try and stay relevant when the rest if the division is leap frigging you

[hotshot]

Sounds like Rendon might want to play for a team with more "passionate" fans.

[Five Banners]

They could use it to get a top flight manager rather than shopping at Walmart.

This

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Article on mlb.com about Cole and Rendon and the Market for each. Suggests more teams will be in on Cole but Rendon will get more total $$. Discusses the Arenado comp. Mentions games played and defense as factors favoring Arenado, but points out Rendon is more even home and road offensively.  With Arenado's $32.5 AAV for 8 years, speculates Rendon will look for 6 or 7 yrs.

With those parameters, I would be ok with 6 years, $200MM, which would be a higher AAV for Boras's sake. If the Lerners insist, maybe there's room to defer $30MM of that if there's an opt out or some nice bonuses. This strikes me as in the ballpark of a final deal without a ridiculous request for a home team discount.

[Duke of Earl]

There is a certain period immediately following the end of the world series (a week, I think) during which a team has exclusive rights to negotiate with its free agents.  We damn well better sign him during that period, or else I think it's hopeless.   

[hotshot]

Except for that crazy good weekend in Chicago, I just haven't felt we have had the upper hand against the "good" NL teams in any series we've played. In the Division, I think any starting pitching advantage over the Mets and Braves we once had has disappeared; also, our offense has been better this season but bats still too often go silent (the Berrios game being a recent example).

Not everyone can have the Yankees lineup/production at the plate but ... can we really afford to let Rendon walk (if he's at all amenable to staying)?

[UMDNats]

Except for that crazy good weekend in Chicago, I just haven't felt we have had the upper hand against the "good" NL teams in any series we've played. In the Division, I think any starting pitching advantage over the Mets and Braves we once had has disappeared; also, our offense has been better this season but bats still too often go silent (the Berrios game being a recent example).

Not everyone can have the Yankees lineup/production at the plate but ... can we really afford to let Rendon walk (if he's at all amenable to staying)?

Pretty clear the organization thinks Kieboom at 2b + FA at 3B + cash savings for relievers > Rendon.

[Slateman]

Pretty clear the organization thinks Kieboom at 2b + FA at 3B + cash savings for relievers > Rendon.

Right. It's one of the classic questions in baseball: Would you rather have a few really great players and be forced to play average/below average players at other positions, or a whole team of good players.

Let's say we believe Keiboom can OPS ~.850 and post ~4 WAR. Rendon would get 30 million, so instead you take that 30 million and give 10-15 million to someone like Brock Holt or Starlin Castro,  and use the rest on Will Smith and a Daniel Hudson extension. Is that better?

[UMDNats]

The problem with that scenario is that expecting Kieboom to put up 4 WAR in his first full season is a tall order and a big roll of the dice for a team that fancies itself a WS contender. This year we did that with Robles but we had enough other production expect to make up for it. It's a classic question - can a rookie + other guys replace a stud - but I really don't think we can.

[Slateman]

The problem with that scenario is that expecting Kieboom to put up 4 WAR in his first full season is a tall order and a big roll of the dice for a team that fancies itself a WS contender. This year we did that with Robles but we had enough other production expect to make up for it. It's a classic question - can a rookie + other guys replace a stud - but I really don't think we can.

I agree. This is why I was adamant about blowing up the team this season. I can totally see Keiboom becoming a good player, but it's going to take a minute. By the time he is "ready," we'll likely be past Strasburg and Scherzer's prime.

Alternatively, you could pay Donaldson ~20 million a year, and leave the other money available at the deadline. Of course, I don't think Donaldson is going to produce like he did this year, so the likelihood of making the playoffs is greatly diminished.

[Slateman]

Also, I can't help but think that if Rendon hadn't missed 10+ games this season, we'd be having a very real conversation about him hitting 40 homers and winning the MVP.

[hotshot]

Just who might the FA relievers who could be expected to go a long way to making up for Rendon's loss be? The list I saw hardly looked like"sure things."

Also, a new FA 3B better have a good enough power bat to prevent any negative effect on Soto.

What's peoples' thinking now on Robles' offensive ceiling? Can he ever put up Soto numbers?

[UMDNats]

No, I don't think Robles will ever put up a Soto-like .980 OPS or anything. His patience and discipline isn't as advanced as Juan and he is too prone to peaks and valleys. I think Robles will settle into a good defensive CF with an OPS hovering around .800-.850 most years, which would be a 3-5 WAR player.

[hotshot]

Also, I can't help but think that if Rendon hadn't missed 10+ games this season, we'd be having a very real conversation about him hitting 40 homers and winning the MVP.

Agree. Think he still has a shot if Nats go anywhere in Oct. Bellinger has slumped the last half; Yelich is out.

[bluestreak]

Agree. Think he still has a shot if Nats go anywhere in Oct. Bellinger has slumped the last half; Yelich is out.

Voting is done on the last day of the season.

[Slateman]

Just who might the FA relievers who could be expected to go a long way to making up for Rendon's loss be? The list I saw hardly looked like"sure things."

Also, a new FA 3B better have a good enough power bat to prevent any negative effect on Soto.

What's peoples' thinking now on Robles' offensive ceiling? Can he ever put up Soto numbers?

Betances (or Chapman if the Yankees sign Betances long term)
Will Smith
Daniel Hudson
Tyler Clippard
Sergio Romeo
Anthony Swarzak

[UMDNats]

I'd stay really far away from Betances.

[hotshot]

Betances (or Chapman if the Yankees sign Betances long term)
Will Smith
Daniel Hudson
Tyler Clippard
Sergio Romeo
Anthony Swarzak

Clippard will be 35, and we've seen his act. I like Romo but he will be 37 before the 2020 season. Will Smith would be nice. Don't think Chapman or Betances will be signing here. Would I rather have Rendon still here and not sign any of these guys? Easy decision for me. 

[imref]

I'd love to see Will Smith here next year (AND Tony).  I assume Smith will be getting a nice deal, but maybe if we don't take Doolittle's option that would free up enough cash to sign him.

[Slateman]

Clippard will be 35, and we've seen his act. I like Romo but he will be 37 before the 2020 season. Will Smith would be nice. Don't think Chapman or Betances will be signing here. Would I rather have Rendon still here and not sign any of these guys? Easy decision for me. 

Sure but Rendon doesnt want to be here. So the question is what does his money get you. Two of those relievers and a .780 OPS at second base combined with Keiboom OPSing .850+ is what we're talking about.

[UMDNats]

There's a pretty decent chance our best reliever next year is Erik Fedde IMO.

[Slateman]

There's a pretty decent chance our best reliever next year is Erik Fedde IMO.

Ugh

[hotshot]

How many well-regarded relievers were signed with little or no expectation of success?

What was it, circa 2015, the O's were touted as having a top relief corps. They had moved Britton from the starting rotation to where he was considered one of the top relievers in the game; they had Brach, Givens, Hunter, and O'Day. Much, much better than our core this season.

Were any of these guys big $$ acquisitions? Don't think so. Point being, are our "scouts" asleep at the wheel?

[aspenbubba]

There's a pretty decent chance our best reliever next year is Erik Fedde IMO.

No freakin 'way. If Sanchez is back and I don't recall his status for 2020 and since Ross has disappeared Voth will become the number 5. Fedde will be in a mop role as the 26th man on the roster. Rizzo has to get a closer and two set up men if we are to compete.