Offseason moves?

[DPMOmaha]

Tanaka does not have the physique of Darvish.  He looks small.  His velocity is in the 92-95 range using the japanese baseball, which is a little different than the US  one.  Maybe it is stuff that the Red Sox are pumping out to appease the fan base, but the writers here say they are being told he is more of a #2 or #3 and not an ace.   If his control diminishes using a US baseball, I'm not sure he has the velocity to be much more.

He's not small.  He's 6'2" 215.  He's almost right in between Darvish and Daisuke.

[Slateman]

Tanaka does not have the physique of Darvish.  He looks small.  His velocity is in the 92-95 range using the japanese baseball, which is a little different than the US  one.  Maybe it is stuff that the Red Sox are pumping out to appease the fan base, but the writers here say they are being told he is more of a #2 or #3 and not an ace.   If his control diminishes using a US baseball, I'm not sure he has the velocity to be much more.

Tanaka strikes me as more of a number 2/3. He most easily projects to Kuroda. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/masahiro-tanaka-the-markets-best-starter/

He's listed at 6'2" 205. That's not small.

http://www.federalbaseball.com/2013/11/6/5075592/wapost-report-nationals-scouted-masahiro-tanaka

Nats scouted him.

I think an important aspect is that whoever signs him is getting a big time free agent, but without having to give up a draft pick. There's two questions in regards to Tanaka: How much? And why have his K/9 dropped off in the previous two seasons

2011: 9.6
2012: 8.8
2013: 7.8

Yu Darvish did not have the same issues. He was the opposite. So I'm left wondering why Tanaka was less effective when he should have becoming more effective.

[sph274]

Has the fact he has thrown an insane amount of innings been mentioned?

[Mattionals]

I think the best expectations that you will get out of Tanaka is something along the lines of what the Dodgers got out of Hyun-Jin Ryu, but with a slightly higher ERA.  You are probably looking at about 190 innings worth of 3.30 ERA ball, maybe 3.80 ERA ball in the AL.  He might not be an "ace" like Darvish is, but he is likely going to do fairly well.

The Kuroda comp is actually pretty good.

[NatsDad14]

Has the fact he has thrown an insane amount of innings been mentioned?

That's bad news for him if he came here. Imagine his reaction to the Strasburg plan. Pitching more innings is better for durability than less.

[BrandonK]

I think the best expectations that you will get out of Tanaka is something along the lines of what the Dodgers got out of Hyun-Jin Ryu, but with a slightly higher ERA.  You are probably looking at about 190 innings worth of 3.30 ERA ball, maybe 3.80 ERA ball in the AL.  He might not be an "ace" like Darvish is, but he is likely going to do fairly well.

The Kuroda comp is actually pretty good.

Kuroda has made $88 M for ages 33 - 39. Tanaka will be 25.

Even as a 2-3, the current going rate is > $10M for subpar pitchers. Add in the value Tanaka brings with the new marketing possibilities, I don't see why not bid and see what happens.

[Slateman]

Has the fact he has thrown an insane amount of innings been mentioned?

1315 to Darvish's 1246 in seven seasons.

4 seamer with a little run


Sinker


Splitter


Slider


Everything comes out of the same arm slot:


He has a slow curve and a change, but doesn't throw them nearly as much as those four.

He clearly has no problem with control and command. With his mechanics,  he'll sit consistently at 90-92 and have movement. Big question is durability. While he can touch 94+, he does't stay up there consistently. If his fastball were to drop down to the 88-89 mph range, his other pitches would become a lot more hitable. Still, I'd say right now, he projects as a number 3 with a ceiling of a number 2. And being 25, that's pretty great.

Sign him, give him the number 5 spot to build up his arm to MLB standards for a couple years. Move Detwiler to the pen, get rid of Mattheus, who becomes redundant as Detwiler is a groundball pitcher and a lefty.

Strasburg
Gonzalez
Zimmermann
Fister
Tanaka

Stammen
Olehdorf/Roark
Detwiler
Blevins
Storen
Clippard
Soriano

Leaves you with Roark, Taylor Jordan, Nathan Karns, & Dan Rosenbaum in Triple A as back up, with guys like AJ Cole, Matt Purke, & Giolito all able to work on their stuff in the minors with no rush to bring them up.

I realize that offense seems to be our biggest problem and signing Tanaka would probably eliminate signing Jordan Zimmermann long term, but Tanaka would still improve the team, dramatically and, most importantly, long term. Fister and and Zimmermann will both be free agents at the same time. Tanaka would slide right in to the number 3 spot with Giolito, AJ Cole, Purke, and a short term free agent duking it out for the final two spots for the 2016 season.

Offensively, we have to dump Laroche or pray he returns to career form. Still think it's pathetic that you know going in to the season that your first baseman shouldn't hit higher than 6th. Still think playing Zimmerman at first and putting Rendon at third and trading for a second baseman, or trading for a third baseman is the best move. There's no way Zim moves willingly until he finds out his shoulder is done. Werth isn't moving either. I'd really like to get Chase Headly. We know he can play third, but play him at first until we have to move him. His bat would carry, especially given his home/away splits. And if the Cubs are still interested in Drew Storen, by all means, get Anthony Rizzo.

[deeznatz]

Still haven't addressed the lineup issues.  Better not get your hopes up, Nats Nation.  We'll batttle it out for a WC but that's it.

Sign Tanaka and trade JZimm for a premiere bat.  With our current pieces you could trade for almost any player and move the pieces around to where they fit best.  Only position totally locked up is probably Desmond at SS.

It would end up being a savings long term as JZimm's contract could be astronomical.

Laroche wont hit .250, we'll be lucky of Spand hits 265.  It's likely that one or two other players will underperform, be it Harp or Ramos.  Zimm hasnt proven he can do it for an entire year. 

OUr lineup is NOT elite and we will continue to stuggle scoring runs. 

[Slateman]

Still haven't addressed the lineup issues.  Better not get your hopes up, Nats Nation.  We'll batttle it out for a WC but that's it.

Sign Tanaka and trade JZimm for a premiere bat.  With our current pieces you could trade for almost any player and move the pieces around to where they fit best.  Only position totally locked up is probably Desmond at SS.

It would end up being a savings long term as JZimm's contract could be astronomical.

Laroche wont hit .250, we'll be lucky of Spand hits 265.  It's likely that one or two other players will underperform, be it Harp or Ramos.  Zimm hasnt proven he can do it for an entire year. 

OUr lineup is NOT elite and we will continue to stuggle scoring runs. 

Still posting douchebaggery I see

[PC]

Tanaka's mechanics are terrible.

[deeznatz]

Still posting douchebaggery I see

nope.  freaking facts.  Have fun getting your hopes crushes in 2014.

[Slateman]

Tanaka's mechanics are terrible.

No they're not

nope.  freaking facts.  Have fun getting your hopes crushes in 2014.

5th in runs scored in the second half of last season. Healthy lineup is fine, especially with a resurgent Laroche and an experienced Rendon. Have fun being a douchebag. It's literally all you're good for.

[PC]

No they're not

Yes they are.  I guarantee he'll have arm troubles...mostly because of his chosen profession.

[Slateman]

Yes they are.  I guarantee he'll have arm troubles...mostly because of his chosen profession.

No more so than any other pitcher.

His delivery is low effort, his back arch is minimal, traditional arm angle with slight tilt of the head. Great follow through.

He's no more an injury risk than any other pitcher.

[Ray D]

No they're not
 Healthy lineup is fine, especially with a resurgent Laroche

And what are the chances of that?  I'm not optimistic.

[Slateman]

And what are the chances of that?  I'm not optimistic.

We really weren't healthy during the second half of last season. Laroche still sucked. Rendon slumped. Harper never put it together.

There's no bat that we can get that will replace Harper. None. There are maybe a handful of players that could replace Zimmerman and maybe two who could replace Desmond. Any first baseman worth having is gone and the picking were incredibly slim this offseason. We have no place to put anyone unless we make a monster trade/signing, such as dumping Span and getting Ellsbury or trading for Matt Kemp.

While I wouldn't mind us changing our first baseman, the Nats offense is going to be fine. Especially with a manager like Williams. They will score enough runs to be in games. Not everyone can be the Red Sox. Nats were the second best NL offensive team in the 2nd half. It wasn't offense that made DAn Haren lose 9 straight starts or make Soriano blow so many leads/saves.

[Ray D]

We really weren't healthy during the second half of last season. Laroche still sucked. Rendon slumped. Harper never put it together.

There's no bat that we can get that will replace Harper. None. There are maybe a handful of players that could replace Zimmerman and maybe two who could replace Desmond. Any first baseman worth having is gone and the picking were incredibly slim this offseason. We have no place to put anyone unless we make a monster trade/signing, such as dumping Span and getting Ellsbury or trading for Matt Kemp.

While I wouldn't mind us changing our first baseman, the Nats offense is going to be fine. Especially with a manager like Williams. They will score enough runs to be in games. Not everyone can be the Red Sox. Nats were the second best NL offensive team in the 2nd half. It wasn't offense that made DAn Haren lose 9 straight starts or make Soriano blow so many leads/saves.

I agree with all that but you didn't answer the question, which focused on LaRoche. What do you think the chances are that he reverts to 2012 form?

[Slateman]

I agree with all that but you didn't answer the question, which focused on LaRoche. What do you think the chances are that he reverts to 2012 form?

Just need him to revert to career form. If he can return to OPSing in the higher .700s/low .800s, he's fine.

[sph274]

Is that guaranteed from a journeyman 34 year old though?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No more so than any other pitcher.

His delivery is low effort, his back arch is minimal, traditional arm angle with slight tilt of the head. Great follow through.

He's no more an injury risk than any other pitcher.

Slate - is his front foot hitting early?  I don't have a good eye for this.

[Slateman]

Is that guaranteed from a journeyman 34 year old though?

Werth is 34

If it's not, it's not the end of the world. It's only the end of the world if Harper, Zimmerman, and Werth all get injured. But no matter who we trade for, they won't help overcome that.

Deez likes to be a douche and say things, but he offers no solutions, nor is able to. There was no one we could have signed or traded for that fixes the Nationals offensive problems. Atlanta won the division and only scored 32 more runs than us. That's it.  What killed the Nats was Haren's 9 loss run and Soriano being awful. Taylor Jordan starts instead of Haren and/or Clippard takes over the closer role, we win the division and probably go deep in the playoffs.

[Mattionals]

On Tanaka, the issue isn't what he should be valued at, but what he will be valued at.  The rotation would look great, but do you really want to go into a bidding war against the Yankees who are desperate?  Sure, he is a three with a number 2 upside, but the Yankees seem to be willing to pay him more than 10 Million a year because he will essentially slot in as their ace.  I think they are so dead set on Tanaka that if they don't get him, they are essentially punting their season because their rotation is what is left of CC and Kuroda, and a bunch of misfit toys.  It's basically to the point where Yankee fans would hope that one or at best both of CC and Kuroda are healthy and then pray for rain for the next three games.  If either of CC or Kuroda go down or are ineffective, it's going to be a long, long season in the Bronx and that doesn't come nicely after the arch rivals just hoisted the trophy.

As for the offense and the ramblings of deeznats, agree with Slate here.  Making a significant move to the offense is a very rough task at this point.  The Dodgers would want a ransom back for Kemp, or if they let him go for less, there are probably some very adverse lingering injuries to Kemp and he may never be his 2011/first half 2012 self ever again.  Elite power in this day and age is hard to come by, and no one is letting it go for cheap.  Sure, Trumbo got traded for Skaggs and Eaton, but Trumbo is basically power or nothing and Eaton and Skaggs have some serious upside.  The Marlins aren't letting Stanton go and I don't see any other teams willing to trade elite power for a pitcher.  Even trading Jordan Zimmermann likely wouldn't return an immediate roster changing power bat, but more likely a high end prospect with power.

I'd say that Rizzo should tinker with the bench by adding a guy like Jeff Baker to replace Moore (give him regular at bats in AAA until an injury or ineffectiveness to ALR happens then call him up or trade him) and maybe go for one more legit lefty out of the pen like trading for Brett Cecil if it can be done.  Let Snyder, Solano and Leon battle it out in ST for the backup catcher position.  Take one of Kobernus, Espinosa or Walters as the utility infielder up the middle.  It might not be the flashiest team, but I think the Nats with that roster would finally have something they didn't have last season.  Depth at every position.  If Boston didn't show us anything else this season, take away that they had great depth that got them to the promised land.

[Nathan]

Werth is 34

If it's not, it's not the end of the world. It's only the end of the world if Harper, Zimmerman, and Werth all get injured. But no matter who we trade for, they won't help overcome that.

Deez likes to be a douche and say things, but he offers no solutions, nor is able to. There was no one we could have signed or traded for that fixes the Nationals offensive problems. Atlanta won the division and only scored 32 more runs than us. That's it.  What killed the Nats was Haren's 9 loss run and Soriano being awful. Taylor Jordan starts instead of Haren and/or Clippard takes over the closer role, we win the division and probably go deep in the playoffs.

Yeah those extra 78 RA were a bigger issue IMO.

[Slateman]

Slate - is his front foot hitting early?  I don't have a good eye for this.

Early? What do you mean? His arm is further forward than Strasburg.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

like I said, my eye is not good at these things.