Offseason moves?

[NJ Ave]

Still think the Yankees are our best trading partner. They keep trying to get Phillips. Espinosa is a better defender and with that short porch, might actually produce.

Espinosa to Yankees, Gardner to Nationals. Gardner, Span, Harper in OF, Werth to 1B.

They might think Gardner has more value than that, but I don't think he does in the real world with only one year of team control remaining.

[Rasta]

Espinosa to Yankees, Gardner to Nationals. Gardner, Span, Harper in OF, Werth to 1B.

They might think Gardner has more value than that, but I don't think he does in the real world with only one year of team control remaining.

I agree that Gardner doesn't have huge value with only 1 year left but I think the Yankees would rather keep him for that one year instead of doing a straight swap of the two. 

[Slateman]

Espinosa to Yankees, Gardner to Nationals. Gardner, Span, Harper in OF, Werth to 1B.

They might think Gardner has more value than that, but I don't think he does in the real world with only one year of team control remaining.

They're not giving up Gardner. Not for Espinosa. Not unless he can return to his 3+ WAR form. Now if you want to include Span, that might be what they're looking for.

[sph274]

They're not giving up Gardner. Not for Espinosa. Not unless he can return to his 3+ WAR form. Now if you want to include Span, that might be what they're looking for.

gardner is better than denard span. i doubt the yankees want another OF when they have no infield and a mediocre rotation. Gardner is a good player, he was worth 4.2 WAR last year. When he is healthy he is a 4 WAR guy.

[Slateman]

gardner is better than denard span. i doubt the yankees want another OF when they have no infield and a mediocre rotation. Gardner is a good player, he was worth 4.2 WAR last year. When he is healthy he is a 4 WAR guy.

When healthy, I agree. However, Span + Espinosa would be a fair trade if everyone is healthy and returns to form. Espinosa helps their infield. Their rotation will be free agency signings, most likely. We could always throw in Mattheus . . .

[UMDNats]

gardner for danny espinosa???



You are delusional.

[UMDNats]

Espinosa to Yankees, Gardner to Nationals. Gardner, Span, Harper in OF, Werth to 1B.

They might think Gardner has more value than that, but I don't think he does in the real world with only one year of team control remaining.

A 3+ WAR outfielder is worth more than a fringy second baseman who couldn't play in the majors this season. And I'm an Espinosa fan.

[Slateman]

gardner for danny espinosa???



You are delusional.

They were in talks for Phillips. Like I said, if Danny is capable of putting up 3+ WAR, it's an even trade

[Smithian]

Interesting series of tweets from Rosenthal summarized...

Would #Nationals trade Jordan Zimmermann? They twice have tried to extend him. Like #Rays’ Price, he has two years of club control left. So…I asked #Nationals GM Mike Rizzo, who said, “We’d certainly love to get something done with him. But like any premium guy on your team, if there is something that can’t be done, then you would think about a trade. But that’s the furthest thing from our minds.”

I'm guessing they threw an extension similar to Gio's out there and they said no.  I really hope they can work something out. 

Every year ZNN plays he is increasing his value. Some players are happy to sign early and split the difference between maximizing value and security, but ZNN is going for the huge pay day.

[UMDNats]

They were in talks for Phillips. Like I said, if Danny is capable of putting up 3+ WAR, it's an even trade

[HalfSmokes]

Every year ZNN plays he is increasing his value. Some players are happy to sign early and split the difference between maximizing value and security, but ZNN is going for the huge pay day.

they've waited long enough that he's already set for life assuming he doesn't have a penchant for Bentleys- his career earnings stand at ~$8,500,000 and he has a good chance another $10 million this year in arbitration- it's a lot easier to wait and test the market when your downside is that limited- even if his elbow explodes this season he should be set. The time to get these guys extended is when they are still making league minimum when the calculation about future security is totally different from the player perspective

[JCA-CrystalCity]

5/ $80MM would make him think. 

[HalfSmokes]

5/ $80MM would make him think. 

he's already looking at 2/25 in arbitration, so that takes it to 3/55- If I'm Zimmermann, I chuckle

[NJ Ave]

Lot of Brett Gardner fans on this board. It's nice to think a 31-year old is going to be as good as he was 3 years ago when he was faster, struck out a lot less, and walked a lot more.

But if Denard Span with 3 years of team control is worth Alex Meyer, I'm not sure what 1 year of Brett Gardner is worth.

And if you want to give him credit for the Carl Crawford effect - i.e. getting 2 wins a year from "defensive value" simply because you're playing a position filled with guys like Mike Morse and Josh Willingham - that's fine. I don't. He's a 3-3.5 win player to me.

[NJ Ave]

5/ $80MM would make him think. 

Not a chance. Matt Cain got $20 million for his FA years, no reason Zimmermann would take less than $18-19 and that's probably a team discount. if you add $8 and $12 for his final two arbitration years, you probably can tack on 4 years @ $20 as a rough estimate, so 6/$100? That would probably be a fair offer on both sides.

[DPMOmaha]

they've waited long enough that he's already set for life assuming he doesn't have a penchant for Bentleys- his career earnings stand at ~$8,500,000 and he has a good chance another $10 million this year in arbitration- it's a lot easier to wait and test the market when your downside is that limited- even if his elbow explodes this season he should be set. The time to get these guys extended is when they are still making league minimum when the calculation about future security is totally different from the player perspective

Still takes two to tango.

[UMDNats]

Lot of Brett Gardner fans on this board. It's nice to think a 31-year old is going to be as good as he was 3 years ago when he was faster, struck out a lot less, and walked a lot more.

But if Denard Span with 3 years of team control is worth Alex Meyer, I'm not sure what 1 year of Brett Gardner is worth.

And if you want to give him credit for the Carl Crawford effect - i.e. getting 2 wins a year from "defensive value" simply because you're playing a position filled with guys like Mike Morse and Josh Willingham - that's fine. I don't. He's a 3-3.5 win player to me.

2013 version of Brett Gardner was a 3.2 win player, which is still more valuable - by a mile - than Danny Espinosa right now. Want to trade for Gardner? Fine, but it's  going to take more than a guy that couldn't even hit in AAA in 2013 and has known flaws in his game. Espinosa is a great buy-low player, but you're going to have to give up something like Storen + Espinosa for Gardner.

[HalfSmokes]

Still takes two to tango.

There is nothing in his case or in the team's history that suggests a real effort was made before he hit arbitration

[NJ Ave]

No one is going to give up that much value for Brett Gardner. I'm not saying he's not a good player - 3-3.5 win players are very good. But he's turning 31 this year, he's only under contract for one year, and unless you buy into speedy LFs being the most dominant defensive players in the game rather than a function of their competition, there's no upside there to be anything more than that.

Maybe it's a function of teams overvaluing their own assets, but when you can pick up a Marlon Byrd or David Murphy or similar likely 2-2.5 win OFs for 2 years and $12-$16 million, why would you give up a ton of assets for one year of a guy who probably gives you one additional win?

[sph274]

gardner is  competent CF. it is part of the reason the ellsbury thing makes no sense. gardner is just ellsbury lite. but yea, most wont give up much for him. nobody is giving up anything significant for danny espinosa. maybe at the deadline but now? espinosa is staying here cause you are only gonna get a crappy reclamation project back for him. maybe the yanks give you dellin betances for him but that is best case scenario.

[UMDNats]

No one is going to give up that much value for Brett Gardner. I'm not saying he's not a good player - 3-3.5 win players are very good. But he's turning 31 this year, he's only under contract for one year, and unless you buy into speedy LFs being the most dominant defensive players in the game rather than a function of their competition, there's no upside there to be anything more than that.

Maybe it's a function of teams overvaluing their own assets, but when you can pick up a Marlon Byrd or David Murphy or similar likely 2-2.5 win OFs for 2 years and $12-$16 million, why would you give up a ton of assets for one year of a guy who probably gives you one additional win?

That was just an example, because the Yankees don't really have to move him and Storen is someone they could want.

I'm just saying you don't give up a 3-win player for Danny Espinosa right now. To think that a one-for-one trade is possible is pretty hilarious.

[NJ Ave]

I think this underestimates how teams value player control these days.

And no, they don't have to trade Gardner. My point is that you're not getting a star player or a young player under team control without warts for Brett Gardner. And I have no idea how people outside of our reactionary fanbase see Danny Espinosa. Maybe most teams see it as him finally succumbing to his obvious contact limitations. Maybe most teams see it as a year lost to injury. I have no idea. A year ago, it would have been pretty hilarious to talk about the Nats taking Brett Gardner, coming off a season-long injury, for Danny Espinosa.

[NJ Ave]

Or you could have gotten Norichika Aoki for a year with his .287/.355/.399 line for a relief pitcher, and had Brett Gardner-lite

Point being, why would someone give up a major prospect or a young SP for Brett Gardner when other options were available for so much less?

[UMDNats]

Point being, why would someone give up a major prospect or a young SP for Brett Gardner when other options were available for so much less?

No one will, and the Yankees aren't asking for that. They're looking for a veteran starter and it's more likely that they'll throw in a prospect in a Gardner trade than do a one-for-one swap.

[NJ Ave]

If the Yankees wanted to take on a salary dump SP trade, I'm sure they could get a Lohse/Buerhle/Edwin Jackson type return.

They're not going to get a good young starting pitcher like a Wade Miley or Pat Corbin, and a team that could offer them a REALLY good pitcher with a huge contract, like Cliff Lee or something like that, would not make the trade for one year of Gardner.

Same thing if you talk about 2nd basemen, another area of need for the Yankees. The Angels would never give up Howie Kendrick - why tread water in terms of value for the next year while getting less years of team control? In a different way, the Cardinals would never give up Kolten Wong - why give up so many years of team control just for one year of Gardner?

So maybe they're better off keeping him.