WP: Nats MASN deal renegotations will have a huge impact

[Mattionals]

They have a pretty freaking awesome front office now. Elias is just so consistently hitting on his moves.  The way they manage to turn any scrap heap pitcher into something relevant is a tribute to the analytic staff and coaches that translate it. John Means is a good example (hurt now, but an ATL 46th round pick). They get payoffs from not just high picks like Rutschman, but guys like Gunnar who had 41 guys taken ahead of him.  I'll even give them credit for guys no longer with the team like Mancini and Severino, who they maxed the value.  Nice baseball operation.

IIRC, when Elias was hired, the O's revamped their analytics and development operations. As it has been said before, analytics and player development are key to successful franchises.

[PowerBoater69]

Some thoughts on Baltimore's claim that the Orioles may need to move if they don't win their appeal in the MASN case.

https://www.talknats.com/2023/02/02/orioles-long-term-viability-in-baltimore/#disqus_thread

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Some thoughts on Baltimore's claim that the Orioles may need to move if they don't win their appeal in the MASN case.

https://www.talknats.com/2023/02/02/orioles-long-term-viability-in-baltimore/#disqus_thread

I think it's a fair take on letting the current lease expire rather than signing for just 5 years.  It's a negotiating tactic.  I would think Moore doesn't want them to leave, but also doesn't want to have as one of his first acts committing  a ton of money to bail out a sports owner.  The Os have the leverage of Nashville to squeeze some $$ out of B-more and the state. I could imagine Moore conditioning more money on a longer lease, and the Os not wanting to lock in.  The Os probably realize Nashville will be gone as an option if they don't commit to it within the next 5 years.

I honestly wonder what $600 million would buy in terms of stadium improvements.  I mean, that amount of money could probably buy every possible improvement twice.  Architecturally, I don't think a retractable roof could be tastefully retrofitted over the place, there's no real parking issue . . . perhaps additional removal of seats and conversion of some of the space to amenities like clubs or fan experiences?  I don't know if there are major systems that need maintenance or replacement. 

[imref]

The biggest need in Camden is the ability to order food via an app

[PowerBoater69]

I think it's a fair take on letting the current lease expire rather than signing for just 5 years.  It's a negotiating tactic.  I would think Moore doesn't want them to leave, but also doesn't want to have as one of his first acts committing  a ton of money to bail out a sports owner.  The Os have the leverage of Nashville to squeeze some $$ out of B-more and the state. I could imagine Moore conditioning more money on a longer lease, and the Os not wanting to lock in.  The Os probably realize Nashville will be gone as an option if they don't commit to it within the next 5 years.

I honestly wonder what $600 million would buy in terms of stadium improvements.  I mean, that amount of money could probably buy every possible improvement twice.  Architecturally, I don't think a retractable roof could be tastefully retrofitted over the place, there's no real parking issue . . . perhaps additional removal of seats and conversion of some of the space to amenities like clubs or fan experiences?  I don't know if there are major systems that need maintenance or replacement. 

I would imagine that most of the money would go to better club areas, as much as they claim that Camden Yards is better than Nats Park, they likely want to alter OPACY to be more like our ballpark. But yeah, $600 million is still a lot of money for ballpark improvements even with all the inflation.

[PowerBoater69]

The biggest need in Camden is the ability to order food via an app

A Talk Nats article from a couple days ago said that Nats Park had more mobile orders than any other ballpark.

https://www.talknats.com/2023/01/31/sabr-day-dc-bob-davids-chapter-january-28-2023/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A Talk Nats article from a couple days ago said that Nats Park had more mobile orders than any other ballpark.

https://www.talknats.com/2023/01/31/sabr-day-dc-bob-davids-chapter-january-28-2023/

well, yah . . . I mean, it's darn near impossible to order any other way.  It's an awful system, but they force us to use it. I would think if there were a poll of ticket holders, especially ones that aren't SPH or frequent flyers, that the result would be folks wanting the option to use cash.  I hate small charges on my card.  More opportunities for transactions to be mishandled.

[PowerBoater69]

well, yah . . . I mean, it's darn near impossible to order any other way.  It's an awful system, but they force us to use it. I would think if there were a poll of ticket holders, especially ones that aren't SPH or frequent flyers, that the result would be folks wanting the option to use cash.  I hate small charges on my card.  More opportunities for transactions to be mishandled.

The free food for kids all summer led to a lot of the mobile ordering.

[Slateman]

I'm not expecting much...Angelos will just dig in his heels and nothing will change.

It has to be remembered why the Lords of Baseball agreed to such a one-sided deal in the first place - the threat of Angelos suing and forcing the owners to open their books (something he, of course, wouldn't have to do since law firms don't have to open their books - they're an unregulated industry). It's a 'nuclear option' he could still pursue, the threat of which could result in pressure on Nationals ownership from the other owners and the commissioner's office to not pursue any telly-contract improvements.

OC is wise

[imref]

A Talk Nats article from a couple days ago said that Nats Park had more mobile orders than any other ballpark.

https://www.talknats.com/2023/01/31/sabr-day-dc-bob-davids-chapter-january-28-2023/

We went to a couple of O's games this past year. Buying food/drinks was like going back in time with massive lines (we were in the upper level, 3B side). I waited at one point about 20 minutes on line to get to the front and find out that they ran out of bottled water.  The scoreboard is also desparately in need of an upgrade, it's small and resolution is poor.  It really isn't much of a step up from a minor league park though the first level concessions are great.

[Senatorswin]

well, yah . . . I mean, it's darn near impossible to order any other way.  It's an awful system, but they force us to use it. I would think if there were a poll of ticket holders, especially ones that aren't SPH or frequent flyers, that the result would be folks wanting the option to use cash.  I hate small charges on my card.  More opportunities for transactions to be mishandled.

Amen to that. I hate that I can't pay cash. I've started to bring my own food which I would rather not do.

[nfotiu]

Some thoughts on Baltimore's claim that the Orioles may need to move if they don't win their appeal in the MASN case.

https://www.talknats.com/2023/02/02/orioles-long-term-viability-in-baltimore/#disqus_thread

One common complaint by Orioles fans throughout the court battles has been that the Nationals knew of the MASN contract before moving to DC, and therefore they should live up to the terms of the deal. Actually the Nats have as they accepted that original RSDC award even though it was much lower than they thought it should have been. The misconception is that the dispute is over the original contract as opposed to the contractually mandated MLB arbitration panel to determine the annual rights fees. Absolutely, the Nationals are not happy with the MASN deal, but they have 100 percent lived up to the terms of the contract as written.

This is a solid point, and goes both ways a bit too.   This whole deal would have been ok for the Nats if the Orioles just lived up to the contract.

The spirit of the deal was an assumption that the combined market rates for the Nats/Os would come out somewhere around 50% of MASNs revenues, and O's would get a 66/33 share on the profits.   Instead local media rights skyrocketed and RSN revenue trended downwards.   

In hindsight, it wasn't a one sided deal in favor of the O's at all.   It was a bad bet by the O's and they are trying to sleeze their way out of it.

If everyone wanted to settle on what the spirit of the agreement was supposed to be, it would probably look something like a 60/40 split of MASN revenue-expenses.   If they hold the O's to their agreement, then the ownership of MASN is worthless at best, and both teams get equal rights fees and O's would be on the hook for growing losses.   

There is a risk to the Nats here too in letting this go on for future years, as local media rights will likely crater in the next couple years which could cause the reset rates to go way down and favor the O's.

It's kind of amazing that both sides are killing their organizations and their fanbases with all of this when it they could probably just settle for something like a 55/45 split pegged to revenues of MASN.

[Natsinpwc]

Good points. This is all just plain stupid at this point in time. Well actually has been for quite a while.

[HalfSmokes]

This is a solid point, and goes both ways a bit too.   This whole deal would have been ok for the Nats if the Orioles just lived up to the contract.

The spirit of the deal was an assumption that the combined market rates for the Nats/Os would come out somewhere around 50% of MASNs revenues, and O's would get a 66/33 share on the profits.   Instead local media rights skyrocketed and RSN revenue trended downwards.   

In hindsight, it wasn't a one sided deal in favor of the O's at all.   It was a bad bet by the O's and they are trying to sleeze their way out of it.

If everyone wanted to settle on what the spirit of the agreement was supposed to be, it would probably look something like a 60/40 split of MASN revenue-expenses.   If they hold the O's to their agreement, then the ownership of MASN is worthless at best, and both teams get equal rights fees and O's would be on the hook for growing losses.   

There is a risk to the Nats here too in letting this go on for future years, as local media rights will likely crater in the next couple years which could cause the reset rates to go way down and favor the O's.

It's kind of amazing that both sides are killing their organizations and their fanbases with all of this when it they could probably just settle for something like a 55/45 split pegged to revenues of MASN.

As the right crater, it's because RSNs are no longer profitable. Even if the reset is lower, I don't expect that to help MASN's profitability much. If I'm the Lerners' I'm not agreeing to a 55/45 split of revenue. Let the Os take their split of the non-existent profits left over after the nats are paid fair value and the Os an equal amount. My fondest hope is that MASN hasn't been putting enough into escrow and this verdict bankrupts them

[hotshot]

We went to a couple of O's games this past year. Buying food/drinks was like going back in time with massive lines (we were in the upper level, 3B side). I waited at one point about 20 minutes on line to get to the front and find out that they ran out of bottled water.  The scoreboard is also desparately in need of an upgrade, it's small and resolution is poor.  It really isn't much of a step up from a minor league park though the first level concessions are great.

I'm about as anti-Baltimore as a person can be -- all their sports teams.

When entertaining guests from around the USA, if they're baseball fans they wanna see both parks. And, they always come away much more impressed with Camden Yards. As "old" and lacking in modern amenities as it may be, it continues to possess a charm that Nats Park will sadly never have.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm about as anti-Baltimore as a person can be -- all their sports teams.

When entertaining guests from around the USA, if they're baseball fans they wanna see both parks. And, they always come away much more impressed with Camden Yards. As "old" and lacking in modern amenities as it may be, it continues to possess a charm that Nats Park will sadly never have.

Nats Park will never charm you.  It'll just be a place with very good site lines, easy to access concessions, and efficient exit and entry.  Parking isn't the greatest, but metro works when it is open, and WTF, I bike when I can.  They just have to cut back on the shootings.

[Senatorswin]

When I go to Nats games I park about 7 blocks away and walk to the park. I never even think about safety. I think the neighborhood is fine and probably as good as most MLB parks. If I went to an O's game there's no way I'm walking 7 blocks to the park.

[IanRubbish]

with a decent team, they averaged less than 17,500. Put that in perspective: double it, and it's still only 6th in MLB. Nats officially were over 25,000, but we will see the punishment this year.

The Orioles attendance last year was shocking given how well they played, and they no longer get almost 1/4 of their home games against NYY or BOS with all the visiting fans.  I agree the Nats will struggle at the gate this year due to the certain-to-finish-in-last team, but ticket prices are also lower in Baltimore, so they really are in desperate financial shape.  I personally never liked going to games there because of the squeegee kids, bad neighborhoods, distance from DC/NoVA, etc, but this is the year Baltimore needs to show up for their team.   Nashville would be make much more sense long-term, but MLB often favors near-term ownership politics over long-term sensibility.

[Natsinpwc]

Attendance tends to lag a couple of years behind performance. The BLOS were terrible for a few years so it will take a while to rebuild the fan base even to mediocre levels. The Phillies didn’t draw much more than the Nats last year.  That’s what a decade of no season over .500 will do.  If the Nats don’t start to turn the shop around they face a long uphill battle with attendance.

[PowerBoater69]

Attendance tends to lag a couple of years behind performance. The BLOS were terrible for a few years so it will take a while to rebuild the fan base even to mediocre levels. The Phillies didn’t draw much more than the Nats last year.  That’s what a decade of no season over .500 will do.  If the Nats don’t start to turn the shop around they face a long uphill battle with attendance.

This is true, but Ian has a good point about the ticket prices, the Nats may have lost a lot of plan holders but the ones who stuck around are in the high dollar seats.

In news out of Baltimore, the Angelos brothers have dropped their lawsuits against each other. My speculation is that Louis got the law firm and John got the Orioles. We'll see if this has any impact at all on the MASN dispute and/or Nats sale.

[Natsinpwc]

This is true, but Ian has a good point about the ticket prices, the Nats may have lost a lot of plan holders but the ones who stuck around are in the high dollar seats.

Probably but if they keep losing and with a sale hanging in the air they will lose more of those also. Probably won’t plunge as much as Baltimore as there are just more people with money to spend in the DMV. And fans of other teams to take over the park.

[HondoKillebrew]

If the O's move, will they just turn Camden Yards into a massive indoor/outdoor Hammerjacks? 

[Senatorswin]

A couple of people on Baltimore sports talk radio are saying there's 0.0 percent chance the O's move.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A couple of people on Baltimore sports talk radio are saying there's 0.0 percent chance the O's move.

I've waited almost a week to repost my hunch, but I'm thinking John Angelos works a deal to get an expansion franchise in Nashville and gives up his ownership rights in the Os to MLB.  The Os become a ward of MLB, like the Nats in 2003-06 and are sold to a new group that keeps them in Baltimore. MLB would release the Nats broadcast rights to the Nats or sell MASN to Leonsis.

[HalfSmokes]

I've waited almost a week to repost my hunch, but I'm thinking John Angelos works a deal to get an expansion franchise in Nashville and gives up his ownership rights in the Os to MLB.  The Os become a ward of MLB, like the Nats in 2003-06 and are sold to a new group that keeps them in Baltimore. MLB would release the Nats broadcast rights to the Nats or sell MASN to Leonsis.

Is Baltimore viable without the MASN deal? It's a minuscule market that would have an almost non-excitant media footprint