With Fielder in the Nats lineup just how much could the Nats improve next year? I know that this is a totally inexact science but let's just look at fangraphs predictions for players in our projected lineup.
1. SS Ian Desmond (2011 WAR: 1.4, 2012 Projected WAR: 1.9) +.5 wins
2. RF Jayson Werth (2011 WAR: 2.5, 2012 Projected WAR: 4.5) +2 wins
3. 3B Ryan Zimmerman (2011 WAR (includes Hairston's estimated WAR): 3.2, 2012 Projected WAR: 5.8 ) +2.6 wins
4. 1B Prince Fielder (2011 WAR (for Nats left field, Nix and Gomes): 1.1 WAR, 2012 Projected WAR: 5.6) +4.5 wins
5. LF Michael Morse (2011 WAR: 3.4, 2012 Projected WAR: 2.4) -1 wins
6. 2B Danny Espinosa (2011 WAR: 3.5, 2012 Projected WAR: 3.8 ) +.3 wins
7. C Wilson Ramos (2011 WAR: 3.1, 2012 Projected WAR: 3.3) +.2 wins
8. CF Roger Bernadina (2011 WAR (Ankiel + Bernie): 2.2, 2012 Projected WAR (career average): .7 WAR) - 1.5 wins
That means that assuming we do absolutely nothing at centerfield (no Bryce Harper in the majors, no moving Werth and signing a corner outfielder, NOTHING!!!) a lineup with Prince Fielder would net us 7.6 more wins. That might be enough to land a playoff spot with a fifth Wild Card. But we haven't even factored in pitching yet.
We will assume that Strasburg replaces Livo and that Gonzalez replaces the pair of Gorzelanny and Detwiler. Now what are we looking at?
Stephen Strasburg (2011 WAR (Livo): 1.9, 2012 Projected WAR: 5.3) +3.4 wins
Jordan Zimmermann (2011 WAR: 3.4, 2012 Projected WAR: 3.9) +.5 wins
Gio Gonzalez (2011 WAR (Gorz and Det): 1.1 WAR, 3.0 WAR) +1.9 wins
Chien-Ming Wang (2011 WAR (includes Marquis): 1.6, 2012 Projected WAR (mine): 1.5) -.1 wins
John Lannan (2011 WAR: 1.3, 2012 Projected WAR (career average): 1.3) +0 wins
Wow!!! Now we are up to 13.3 wins added from last year. And that's still without addressing center field and playing Bernie there all year. Now because we are in the realm of sabermetrics to properly assess these added wins we will need to compare them to the Nats' Pythagorean W/L record not their actual results. Because the Nats missed a game last year and finished close to .500 we are going to assume that we can safely change 78-83 to 78.5-83.5. That means that just the projected improvements in our lineup with the addition of Prince Fielder would give us a Pythagorean projection of roughly 91.8 wins.
Again, this is not an exact science. The point is that Fielder instantly makes the Nats a contender so it's time to go get him. Oh and let's do something about centerfield too
