2012 free agency

[DPMOmaha]

Laroche isn't fair. They didn't sign him knowing he was injured.

Same with Marquis,  but that's not the point.  We've had to pay our main free agents the past two years to sit on the bench and reahab.  Why would you bring a guy who is almost guaranteed to be on the DL?

[PC]

Same with Marquis,  but that's not the point.  We've had to pay our main free agents the past two years to sit on the bench and reahab.  Why would you bring a guy who is almost guaranteed to be on the DL?

Hopefully he wouldn't be our "main free agent" this offseason.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

   Re: 2012 free agency
« Reply #652: Yesterday at 09:23:14 PM »Quote whoever said that Oswalt would cost us picks is wrong.  He has a team option and if the phils decline it then he wont cost us anything but $$$$$

I believe you can offer arbitration even when you turn down an option.  I'm trying to recall when I saw this before.  In the MLBPA agreement with MLB, I did not see a reference in the arbtiration section to a team being prohibited from submitting a contract for arbitration when it has turned down an option.

[blue911]

I believe you can offer arbitration even when you turn down an option.  I'm trying to recall when I saw this before.  In the MLBPA agreement with MLB, I did not see a reference in the arbtiration section to a team being prohibited from submitting a contract for arbitration when it has turned down an option.

You're correct. Declining an option has zero bearing on free agent compensation.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Reading FJB's post on Wilson led me to look at his SIERA and other fielding indepent measures of his pitching.  His SIERA has generally been below his xFIP through his career and was closer to his ERA this year.  That kind of figures since he is a relatively high K groundball pitcher. 

The exception was his first year starting, last year, when he had his lowest K rate and highest walk rate.  Last year, he had an abnormally low (even for him) HR/FB rate, which helped his ERA.  Essentially, he was a #3 starter last year who was helped by keeping the ball in the park. That might have to do with his stuff (high K pitchers often induce worse contact when balls are in the air), or it might be the biggest fluke in the world given he played in Arlington.  I'm inclined to think he suppresses HR due to stuff. 

this year, his  K rate reverted to his career average and BB rate was his career best.  Looks like he tried to pound the strike zone because his HR rate jumped - still better than average, but it looks like he was occasionally beat when he challenged guys.

I agree with FJB's premise - Wilson is higher risk than Sabathia and Lee and that his contract will likely need to be in the Lackey / Burnett / Hernandez / Beckett . . .  range.  $17 MM/ yr, 4+ years, rather than the Ted Lilly range.   I think there were plenty of flags on Lackey saying declining performance stay away (and was not happy with the signing at the time), while with Burnett there was the history of inconsistency.  I think Wilson is more likely to be a good signing than the two FJB mentioned due to less history of inconsistency and due to the improvement his second year starting (not a one year fluke who can't take the demands of starting).  There is still a lot of risk in that signing because the starting track record is short.

I still think the price on Wandy is better, the commitment in years is better, and the downside risks are probably less. he'd slide in as #3 and be an upgrade over our veteran lefties.  My first choice would be to deal for him if we have stuff to deal.

[HalfSmokes]

I think Burentt lessened the amount of Wilson's contract last night- if he blew that game you'd have yankee ownership panicking at the same time red sox nation is panicking over starting pitching, throw in that his current team just signed one of the most lucrative local tv contracts in the game, but I still think he make more than Lackey/Burnett range

[Tyler Durden]

Reading FJB's post on Wilson led me to look at his SIERA and other fielding indepent measures of his pitching.  His SIERA has generally been below his xFIP through his career and was closer to his ERA this year.  That kind of figures since he is a relatively high K groundball pitcher. 

The exception was his first year starting, last year, when he had his lowest K rate and highest walk rate.  Last year, he had an abnormally low (even for him) HR/FB rate, which helped his ERA.  Essentially, he was a #3 starter last year who was helped by keeping the ball in the park. That might have to do with his stuff (high K pitchers often induce worse contact when balls are in the air), or it might be the biggest fluke in the world given he played in Arlington.  I'm inclined to think he suppresses HR due to stuff. 

this year, his  K rate reverted to his career average and BB rate was his career best.  Looks like he tried to pound the strike zone because his HR rate jumped - still better than average, but it looks like he was occasionally beat when he challenged guys.

I agree with FJB's premise - Wilson is higher risk than Sabathia and Lee and that his contract will likely need to be in the Lackey / Burnett / Hernandez / Beckett . . .  range.  $17 MM/ yr, 4+ years, rather than the Ted Lilly range.   I think there were plenty of flags on Lackey saying declining performance stay away (and was not happy with the signing at the time), while with Burnett there was the history of inconsistency.  I think Wilson is more likely to be a good signing than the two FJB mentioned due to less history of inconsistency and due to the improvement his second year starting (not a one year fluke who can't take the demands of starting).  There is still a lot of risk in that signing because the starting track record is short.

I still think the price on Wandy is better, the commitment in years is better, and the downside risks are probably less. he'd slide in as #3 and be an upgrade over our veteran lefties.  My first choice would be to deal for him if we have stuff to deal.

I agree on Wandy being a better risk than Wilson.  If we can pick him up relatively cheaply, I'd do it.  If not, signing Buerhle without giving up anything in a trade would seem to be just as good an option.  Maybe the Nats can sell him on pitching with Stras and JZ on an up and coming team in the NL. 

If we sign Wilson and he's terrible for whatever reason, we pretty much join the Mutts and Cubs in becoming pretty heavily weighed down with large, long contracts.  The Giants can carry Zito but probably not two.  The Angels have one Wells, not two.  It's really only the Yanks and Boston who have multiple nasty large contracts and have been able to push through that - basically by spending even more.

I don't know if Wilson will be great or terrible - pitchers are just a lot more difficult to predict.  So it's not a risk I would take.

[Evolution33]

I am so confused by the Wandy Rodriguez love that I just spent the past 15 minutes jumping back and forth between Wandy's stats and Gorzo's. In 2011 Gorzo had a better K/9 and BB/9 and the homerun rates weren't too far of with Gorzo being 1.29 HR/9 and Wandy being 1.18 HR/9. Gorzo ended up losing his starting job halfway through the year and now will either be non-tendered or the long man in 2012. I don't know why the Nationals would want to give up talent to aquire a player who isn't that much different than a player they might get rid of.

[Lintyfresh85]

I am so confused by the Wandy Rodriguez love that I just spent the past 15 minutes jumping back and forth between Wandy's stats and Gorzo's. In 2011 Gorzo had a better K/9 and BB/9 and the homerun rates weren't too far of with Gorzo being 1.29 HR/9 and Wandy being 1.18 HR/9. Gorzo ended up losing his starting job halfway through the year and now will either be non-tendered or the long man in 2012. I don't know why the Nationals would want to give up talent to aquire a player who isn't that much different than a player they might get rid of.

Well, it's curious you're only mentioning 2011, as I assume that's to only bolster your argument... but either way.

2011

ERA - Rodriguez - 3.49
ERA - Gorzelanny - 4.03

FIP - Rodriguez - 4.15
FIP - Gorzelanny - 4.19

xFIP - Rodriguez - 3.72
xFIP - Gorzelanny - 4.03

Career

ERA - Rodriguez - 4.07
ERA - Gorzelanny - 4.65

FIP - Rodriguez - 4.07
FIP - Gorzelanny - 4.48

xFIP - Rodriguez - 3.93
xFIP - Gorzelanny - 4.63

K/9 - Rodriguez - 7.68
K/9 - Gorzelanny - 6.87

BB/9 - Rodriguez - 3.23
BB/9 - Gorzelanny - 3.94

K/BB - Rodriguez - 2.38
K/BB - Gorzelanny - 1.74

[Evolution33]

Well, it's curious you're only mentioning 2011, as I assume that's to only bolster your argument... but either way.

2011

ERA - Rodriguez - 3.49
ERA - Gorzelanny - 4.03

FIP - Rodriguez - 4.15
FIP - Gorzelanny - 4.19

xFIP - Rodriguez - 3.72
xFIP - Gorzelanny - 4.03

Career

ERA - Rodriguez - 4.07
ERA - Gorzelanny - 4.65

FIP - Rodriguez - 4.07
FIP - Gorzelanny - 4.48

xFIP - Rodriguez - 3.93
xFIP - Gorzelanny - 4.63

K/9 - Rodriguez - 7.68
K/9 - Gorzelanny - 6.87

BB/9 - Rodriguez - 3.23
BB/9 - Gorzelanny - 3.94

K/BB - Rodriguez - 2.38
K/BB - Gorzelanny - 1.74

Is that difference really worth $36 million over three years? If the Nats want a 32 year old veteran lefty why not sign Buehrle instead of trading for Wandy? I just don't get the obsession with him. Aside from his one good year in 2009 he has been pretty close to nothing more than average.

[Lintyfresh85]

Is that difference really worth $36 million over three years? If the Nats want a 32 year old veteran lefty why not sign Buehrle instead of trading for Wandy? I just don't get the obsession with him. Aside from his one good year in 2009 he has been pretty close to nothing more than average.

Well, based on ERA*, that's over .50 per nine innings... so say they both pitch 200 innings, that's about 11 runs saved a year.

If 10 runs = a win, which cost about 5 million a year, so that's 15 million. So probably not. Though, adding a "win" per year to the staff is not a bad thing, either.

* - I know WAR is based off of FIP... just using ERA as an example

[JCA-CrystalCity]

2011 ERA+ (a park adjusted number) - Wandy 109, Gorzo 96, Buehrle 117.

If Buehrle decides to leave Chicago, Bajek's reverse-engineered Elias ratings have him a pretty clear Type B, so no compensation out of our pocket.  He and Wandy are roughly the same age.  Both throw a ton of innings, though Buehrle throws about 10 - 15 innings more on average.  He probably should be on the table, but I could see a bidding war for him if he leaves Chicago because he is right behind Wilson in the FA pecking order.  I would not go 4 yrs, $60 MM to pull him in, and I think that will be what it takes.  Wandy, OTOH, would be off my radar if it took our better prospects (that is, Houston decides not to dump his salary).

Gorzo is at most a long man.  He has consistently been a below average pitcher when starting, and has not thrown more than 140 innings since 2007.  He's a relatively cheap, sometimes effective swing man.

[hammondsnats]

My two cents: Gorzo was pretty darn good coming out of the pen.  Obviously Davey liked what he saw, he used him a lot out of there.  More than Burnett it seemed like.

[Evolution33]

If we want to go by ERA+ then the Nats still don't need Wandy as Lannan had a 104 ERA+ in 2011 and Ross Detwiler 129 in limited action. The Nats right now are concerned with the back of the rotation and I would be more interested in using those spots to find out what Detwiler is than running out an overpaid mediocre lefty every five days.

I also think there will end up being better starting pitchers on the trade market and I would like to see the Nats get someone that can be a solid number three for the NL East behind Strasburg and Zimmermann.

[Lintyfresh85]

If we want to go by ERA+ then the Nats still don't need Wandy as Lannan had a 104 ERA+ in 2011 and Ross Detwiler 129 in limited action. The Nats right now are concerned with the back of the rotation and I would be more interested in using those spots to find out what Detwiler is than running out an overpaid mediocre lefty every five days.

I also think there will end up being better starting pitchers on the trade market and I would like to see the Nats get someone that can be a solid number three for the NL East behind Strasburg and Zimmermann.

I can't believe anyone has faith in Detwiler.

Especially you, it just seems, illogical. He strikes out less than 6 K/9, his K/BB was 2.09 (League average is 2.33) and his ERA was 1.21 runs lower than his FIP. To me, that's not a recipe for success. Heck, if you believe in tERA, which estimates ERA based off the type of contact the pitcher gives off, his tERA wound up at 5.21, which is pretty scary, if you ask me.

Hope he's turned the corner... but if the Nats/fans are banking on him being a big part of the rotation next year... look out, thinks could be nasty.

[Evolution33]

I can't believe anyone has faith in Detwiler.

Especially you, it just seems, illogical. He strikes out less than 6 K/9, his K/BB was 2.09 (League average is 2.33) and his ERA was 1.21 runs lower than his FIP. To me, that's not a recipe for success. Heck, if you believe in tERA, which estimates ERA based off the type of contact the pitcher gives off, his tERA wound up at 5.21, which is pretty scary, if you ask me.

Hope he's turned the corner... but if the Nats/fans are banking on him being a big part of the rotation next year... look out.

He looked like a different pitcher near the end of the year. Much more confidence and mound presences. Finally started to realize he is a lefty with a 94 MPH fastball and should pound the zone. I want to see if this was real or an illusion. What I want to have happen is either sign Wilson, Buerhle, or trade for another top of the rotation type, resign Wang for the fourth spot, trade Lannan, and make Detwiler, Peacock, Milone rotate in and out of the fifth spot until someone wins it. 

[hammondsnats]

i was at two of detwiler's last few starts of the year.  while he got in a major jam in both instances (and worked out of both), he looked like a complete different pitcher.  his fastball was constantly flashing 94.  his change looked good, his curve and a nice bite.  he was pitching, not throwing and he wasn't backing down. 

but we've seen the good and bad from him.  shouldn't write him off, but if we have the chance to get a viable #2 or #3 rather than playing with fire and banking on another kid to man the back end of the rotation, i'd take my chances with the #2/#3 proven starter.

Strasburg / Zimmermann / TBA (wilson?) / Wang / TBA (most likely Lannan, but Peacock/Milone/Detwiler fighting for it)

[zimm_da_kid]

I believe you can offer arbitration even when you turn down an option.  I'm trying to recall when I saw this before.  In the MLBPA agreement with MLB, I did not see a reference in the arbtiration section to a team being prohibited from submitting a contract for arbitration when it has turned down an option.

Even so, I doubt the phils would want to because f they don't do the club option for 16 million then how badly do they really want him?  He would likely make almost that much in arbitration.

[HalfSmokes]

Even so, I doubt the phils would want to because f they don't do the club option for 16 million then how badly do they really want him?  He would likely make almost that much in arbitration.

gentleman's agreement to turn it down? Otherwise they can offer it and trade him (not necessarily to somewhere of his choosing) if he accepts arb

[zimm_da_kid]

CC would fit perfectly in our rotation.  We need an ace lefty to slide between strasburg and JZimm and he provides that.  We need a horse who can give us 220+ innings a year and he provides that.  We can also expect about 5 homers from him if you look at his half season with the brewers. 

[HalfSmokes]

CC would fit perfectly in our rotation.  We need an ace lefty to slide between strasburg and JZimm and he provides that.  We need a horse who can give us 220+ innings a year and he provides that.  We can also expect about 5 homers from him if you look at his half season with the brewers. 

7 years/$161M (2009-15)
signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 12/11/08
$9M signing bonus (paid in 3 installments: 12/31/08, 3/1/09, 7/31/09
09:$14M, 10-15:$23M annually
salaries to be paid semimonthly over all 12 months of year, rather than semimonthly during season
Sabathia may opt of of deal after 2011 season
no-trade protection
perks: suite on road trips

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/new-york-yankees_111398168678860040.html

he wants a raise off of that- I'm guessing no way in hell he comes here

[zimm_da_kid]

7 years/$161M (2009-15)
signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 12/11/08
$9M signing bonus (paid in 3 installments: 12/31/08, 3/1/09, 7/31/09
09:$14M, 10-15:$23M annually
salaries to be paid semimonthly over all 12 months of year, rather than semimonthly during season
Sabathia may opt of of deal after 2011 season
no-trade protection
perks: suite on road trips

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/new-york-yankees_111398168678860040.html

he wants a raise off of that- I'm guessing no way in hell he comes here

His agent is Scott Boras.  Boras always puts out there a completely ridiculous price tag months before negotiations start and then he settles for an only slightly less unreasonable deal.  He floated a $50 million pricetag on Stephen Strasburg before the draft.

[HalfSmokes]

His agent is Scott Boras.  Boras always puts out there a completely ridiculous price tag months before negotiations start and then he settles for an only slightly less unreasonable deal.  He floated a $50 million pricetag on Stephen Strasburg before the draft.

um, that's his current deal, he's not opting out to make less

[zimm_da_kid]

um, that's his current deal, he's not opting out to make less

I know that is his current deal but you forgot to mention the fact that he only has 4 years left and is due like 90 million.  I think he might be attainable for 6 years 140

[hammondsnats]

c.c. would be sick