Jayson Werth signs w/ Nationals for 7y/$126m

[Potomac Cannons]

Rizzo hasn't been negotiating through the media.

Hasn't done so at any point.  Not sure why people still believe the stuff they hear out of the media guys.

[Lintyfresh85]

wOBA isn't park adjusted, though wRC+ is, which is why I thought Fangraphs WAR wasn't park-adjusted.  But as it turns out, they do base WAR on park-adjusted wRAA.  I don't think B-R does, though.

I'd ignore anything B-R does with advanced metrics.

What they call WAR, is vastly different from the Fangraphs version... and B-R has basically admitted their stat is flawed.

[Sharp]

Well, rWAR (the B-R version) assumes a higher baseline for team wins, which explains away most of the differences.  But I wouldn't go so far as to say "ignore it outright."  rWAR may be flawed, but fWAR is flawed too.  No version of WAR claims to perfectly explain everything, only as much as we currently can.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Crawford had repeatedly stated he wanted to play for a winner and wouldn't sign elsewhere. Getting Crawford was not going to happen. Likewise, JCA, it was reported and fairly-well known Werth was Boston bound...

Not arguing Crawford would have been a difficult get, but even the Werth contract would have beat LAA's offer to Crawford by $18MM.  It would have still had some "blow away other offers" effect.  That said, yes, it was well reported that Werth was Boston's #1 choice after the Gonzalez trade, and Rizzo as much said that he believed Boston had offered 6 / $108 MM for him. 

If you go back, I had at least one or two posts saying the Nats should move on Werth while everyone was concentrating on Crawford.  Rizzo was smart to do so so as to not end up empty handed.  Getting one was a major achievement.  I appreciate Hammonds point on power, but once Dunn was gone, I think the power could have been made up with some combo of LaRoche and Billy Hall (at 2d).  Moreover, this team has a power LHB RF in the wings in 2012, so I'm a little less concerned about the advantage in power Werth brings the Nats than I am about the other advantages Crawford has.

I grew up listening to Dimaggio for Williams trade stories, so I'm comfortable with speculating on which stars would do better in which ballpark. 

[NatsDad14]

Would you rather have Crawford at age 30 and 31 or Werth at age 37 and 38?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Would you rather have Crawford at age 30 and 31 35 and 36 or Werth at age 37 and 38?

Crawford.  While speed fades, excellent speed types do not fade to average or below average, they fade to good and knowledgeable base runners and defenders.  Very little risk he will still not be solidly above at the end of his contract.  Also, I think had he been here, looking at his spray patter of his flies, Crawford would have developed into a consistent 20+ HR type. That's just my gut / mindfact.

[NatsDad14]

Crawford.  While speed fades, excellent speed types do not fade to average or below average, they fade to good and knowledgeable base runners and defenders.  Very little risk he will still not be solidly above at the end of his contract.  Also, I think had he been here, looking at his spray patter of his flies, Crawford would have developed into a consistent 20+ HR type. That's just my gut / mindfact.

You are looking at it wrong. They both have 7 year deals and both are playing at ages 32-35. But Crawford will have seasons at age 29, 30, 31. While Werth's last 3 seasons will be 36,37, 38. Which would you rather have?

[Terpfan76]

Or you can be the Mets and owe Bobby Bonilla 1.19mm per year from 2011-2035 lol... Wonder if he can still play first?

[Lintyfresh85]

Or you can be the Mets and owe Bobby Bonilla 1.19mm per year from 2011-2035 lol... Wonder if he can still play first?

Oh man... they got dicked over on that deal.

For those who don't know... the Mets signed Bonilla and got him to take a deferred amount of money, much larger than what his contract was... the only thing was, they would spread it out in small payments for years and years after Bonilla had retired.

With the money they saved on the deferment, they thought they'd be smart and stick with a hedge fund guy... so, they give whatever the amount was, 20-30 million dollars to some dude named Bernie Madfof. They think they got a killer deal from this guy... he's promising 10-15% returns on investment, whatnot... so why not invest the money now, and get a 3 million return on investment yearly before you start paying Bonilla?

Of course, we all know who Madoff became... and the Mets lost all of the money they sent to him to invest.

So, now, not only are they out the money on the long term deal on Bonilla, they lost all the money they pocketed by deferring as well.

[Terpfan76]

Oh man... they got dicked over on that deal.

For those who don't know... the Mets signed Bonilla and got him to take a deferred amount of money, much larger than what his contract was... the only thing was, they would spread it out in small payments for years and years after Bonilla had retired.

With the money they saved on the deferment, they thought they'd be smart and stick with a hedge fund guy... so, they give whatever the amount was, 20-30 million dollars to some dude named Bernie Madfof. They think they got a killer deal from this guy... he's promising 10-15% returns on investment, whatnot... so why not invest the money now, and get a 3 million return on investment yearly before you start paying Bonilla?

Of course, we all know who Madoff became... and the Mets lost all of the money they sent to him to invest.

So, now, not only are they out the money on the long term deal on Bonilla, they lost all the money they pocketed by deferring as well.

Yeah, that's not really what happened. The team owed Bobby Bo just about $5.9mm and didn't want to pay him right away. So both sides agreed to defer payment until 2011 at 8.0% interest. That's where the outrageous sum came from. The owner of the Mets was the pretty much the most well known victim of the Madoff scam, but it didn't have anything to do with Bobby Bo.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703426004575339013108198050.html

[Lintyfresh85]

I had the jist correct.

Defer money, except great return... get screwed over.

[Kevrock]

I said earlier that Alderson shouldn't be allowed to talk about other teams' contracts until he gets Bonilla's off the books.

[Natskins]

That's hilarious. It would be like the Nats having to pay Rondell White $1 million+ for the next 25 years. (I couldn't think of a free agent example because the Expos didn't sign free agents.)

[DPMOmaha]

I'm watching the Nebraska volleyball game.  They're playing Washington in a sweet 16 matchup.  Jayson Werth's sister, Hannah is a standout volleyball player for NU.  She wears #44.  I find an interesting twinge of irony.

[Smithian]

WE SIGNED JAYSON WERTH!!!!!

[Evolution33]

http://evolution33.wordpress.com/2010/12/11/chapter-2-hard-not-to-be-excited-draft/

Chapter 2 focuses on Werth. Left out an interesting story, but this is a draft, and I have already been working on editing chapter 1 and writing this since 7:30.

[PANatsFan]

The Werth deal is very heavily backloaded, $10 million salary this season.You have to get a Cliff Lee now.

[Evolution33]

The Werth deal is very heavily backloaded, $10 million salary this season.You have to get a Cliff Lee now.

You make it sound like there is more than one.

[Kevrock]

The Werth deal is very heavily backloaded, $10 million salary this season.You have to get a Cliff Lee now.

Why in the hell would they backload it?

[NatsDad14]

The Werth deal is very heavily backloaded, $10 million salary this season.You have to get a Cliff Lee now.

Where are the details?

[PANatsFan]

Where are the details?

MLBTR. 4 million signing bonus, 10 mil next season, thirteen the next, ending with 20-21 million by 2017. They have the flexibility to add Lee by flip flopping the compensation (frontloading).

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2010/12/the_breakdown_of_jayson_werths.html

[Lintyfresh85]

2011: $10 million
2012: $13 million
2013: $16 million
2014: $20 million
2015: $21 million
2016: $21 million
2017: $21 million

[PANatsFan]

Kilgore had the same idea I had, meaning, it doesn't take a genius to see they want Fielder or Lee or a big fish.

[NatsDad14]

MLBTR. 4 million signing bonus, 10 mil next season, thirteen the next, ending with 20-21 million by 2017. They have the flexibility to add Lee by flip flopping the compensation (frontloading).

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2010/12/the_breakdown_of_jayson_werths.html

Not a huge fan of that. His last 4 years will have him being owed 83 Million while he is declining making him untradable.

[Lintyfresh85]

Or, they just wanted to take the saved money and invest it.

That way, they're paying less of the contract.