Nationals new 1B discussion

[RyanTheRiot]

Hello fellow Nats fans.  This being my first post, I figured I would introduce myself.  First off, I love the Nats.  Season ticket holder since day 1.  I was raised in a baseball family, was never very good at the game but I've always loved watching and following the MLB.  I'm in college now and I feel like I have a solid grasp on baseball stats and what it takes to build a winning team. 

Here's how I feel on the first base situation:  LaRoche's bat is a serviceable as far as left-handed power goes from a first baseman, with a .271/.339/.488 career triple-slash and an .827 OPS.  His glove is average, maybe slightly above average.  The problem with LaRoche is the money and years he will command (I predict $24 million over 3 years).  I think the Nats should consider short-term solutions before handing the job to LaRoche for the next three years.

I am intrigued by the idea of bringing in Brad Hawpe on a 1 year, incentive-laden contract.  His bat would provide the left handed power we lost with Dunn, with a .279/.373/.490 career line, good for an .863 OPS.  Granted, he played a lot of his games at Coors field, inflating those numbers.  Away from Coors, however, his career OPS is an impressive .839.  There is reason to think that Hawpe will bounce back from a disappointing 2009.  He battled through a rib injury and saw his BABIP fall to .308 (from 06-09, Hawpe posted an average BABIP of .347).  His swing was clearly affected by a physical injury and his numbers show it.  IF he can stay healthy, he can return to form.  Comparing Hawpe to the newest Nat Jayson Werth yields interesting results.  Check out this graph comparing their wOBA by age.



Shockingly similar, up until Hawpe's uncharacteristic 2009.

Hawpe is also a former first baseman (see: http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_15536823 ) who has practiced fielding ground balls his whole career and can definitely handle the position.  He can also play a corner outfield spot when the situation calls for it. 

A platoon at first base with Hawpe and Morse could provide Adam Dunn-esque production at a discount price.  Let's get it done.

[NatsDad14]

Hawpe is an awful defensive player. He is the next Garrett Atkins

[RyanTheRiot]

He is a very bad defensive outfielder.  So was Adam Dunn.  It's a different story at first base.  Dunn learned how to play the position and did a decent job at it.  Hawpe is a professional who can do the same.

[houston-nat]

Welcome, RyanTheRiot. I'm glad we've got another smart fellow who uses stats rather than shouting. Stick around!

[JMW IV]

but then the question is, if we give 1b to Hawpe and let him play terrible defense, why didnt we just keep Dunn?

[RyanTheRiot]

The Nationals wanted to keep Dunn but didn't want to give him a 4th year.  The White Sox gave him that 4th year and off he went.  That begs the question, why throw money at Werth over 7 years, and be unwilling to sign Dunn for 4?  Predicting how a player will age is an inexact science, but the Nationals seem to think that Werth will improve/maintain his level of play, while Dunn will begin to trend downwards, and soon.  His drop in OBP last year (.356 compared to .381 career) didn't help him, either.

Hawpe is by no means a long-term solution at first, but he fills the left-handed power void at first base at a friendly cost.

[PatsNats28]

Hello fellow Nats fans.  This being my first post, I figured I would introduce myself.  First off, I love the Nats.  Season ticket holder since day 1.  I was raised in a baseball family, was never very good at the game but I've always loved watching and following the MLB.  I'm in college now and I feel like I have a solid grasp on baseball stats and what it takes to build a winning team. 

Here's how I feel on the first base situation:  LaRoche's bat is a serviceable as far as left-handed power goes from a first baseman, with a .271/.339/.488 career triple-slash and an .827 OPS.  His glove is average, maybe slightly above average.  The problem with LaRoche is the money and years he will command (I predict $24 million over 3 years).  I think the Nats should consider short-term solutions before handing the job to LaRoche for the next three years.

I am intrigued by the idea of bringing in Brad Hawpe on a 1 year, incentive-laden contract.  His bat would provide the left handed power we lost with Dunn, with a .279/.373/.490 career line, good for an .863 OPS.  Granted, he played a lot of his games at Coors field, inflating those numbers.  Away from Coors, however, his career OPS is an impressive .839.  There is reason to think that Hawpe will bounce back from a disappointing 2009.  He battled through a rib injury and saw his BABIP fall to .308 (from 06-09, Hawpe posted an average BABIP of .347).  His swing was clearly affected by a physical injury and his numbers show it.  IF he can stay healthy, he can return to form.  Comparing Hawpe to the newest Nat Jayson Werth yields interesting results.  Check out this graph comparing their wOBA by age.



Shockingly similar, up until Hawpe's uncharacteristic 2009.

Hawpe is also a former first baseman (see: http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_15536823 ) who has practiced fielding ground balls his whole career and can definitely handle the position.  He can also play a corner outfield spot when the situation calls for it. 

A platoon at first base with Hawpe and Morse could provide Adam Dunn-esque production at a discount price.  Let's get it done.

I love that you're using my favorite stat (wOBA), but you do have to take into account, as others have said, that Werth's defense is much better than Hawpe's.

[PANatsFan]

Nice first post, Ryan.

[RyanTheRiot]

I agree, re: Jayson Werth.  I like the addition even if we had to overpay to get him.  He brings 5 tools to the field and a powerful influence to the clubhouse.

Back to first base:

The fact that Mike Morse is a former middle infielder should tell you something about his ability to play first base.  He grew out of the shortstop position, as he lost some of his quickness and athleticism but gained a lot of size and strength.  In my opinion, his skill set is a better fit at first base than in the outfield.  And his bat against lefties is significantly better than LaRoche. Look at these career numbers:

LaRoche vs LHP: .753 OPS
Morse vs LHP : .893 OPS (.999 (!!) last year)

LaRoche vs RHP: .850 OPS
Hawpe vs RHP: .890 OPS

Platoon! LaRoche is fool's gold.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

That's a compelling argument.

My concern with Hawpe is that last year was the start of a trend rather than an anomaly.

[DPMOmaha]

He was hurt much of last year.  If he's healthy, I'd expect a bounce back year.  The fact he's only played 9 games at first his whole career would give me more pause than his injury last year.

[spidernat]

but then the question is, if we give 1b to Hawpe and let him play terrible defense, why didnt we just keep Dunn?

Hawpe might be much cheaper.

Hammonds is going to love the new guy. 

[hammondsnats]

A platoon at first base with Hawpe and Morse could provide Adam Dunn-esque production at a discount price.  Let's get it done.

discount price

omg yes

[RyanTheRiot]

If Morse and Hawpe can match their career numbers against lefties and righties respectively, that would yield a .893 OPS vs lefties and an .890 OPS vs righties.

Adam Dunn's OPS last year was .892. 

Hawpe and Morse can each handle the glove at least as well as Dunn can.  Remember: Adam Dunn, like Hawpe, was also considered a terrible defensive outfielder before his move to first.  Morse is also too slow for the outfield. 

We can literally replace Adam Dunn's on-field production for this season for a fraction of what Dunn is being paid. 

Still want Adam LaRoche?

[spidernat]

The Nationals wanted to keep Dunn but didn't want to give him a 4th year. 

According to Linty's post earlier Dunn could've been re-signed for 3 years $42 million.

Truth is finally out.

Kasten wanted to re-sign Dunn.

Rizzo had deal for Jackson worked out.

Both went to board... board decided neither was correct.

Nats left with two draft picks... the outcome neither Rizzo nor Kasten wanted.

Quote
Tom Boswell: Rizzo decided to lose Dunn. Kasten disagreed. It was friendly. But it has implications. Rizzo had a deal for Edwin ackson all completed with the White Sox for Dunn before the trading deadline. Riz and Stan made their cases to the board. Stan still wanted to resign Dunn __right then__ and also didn't want to run up a mid-season PR-nightmare white flag. Riz wanted the deal. The Nats (board) made the worst possible decision. Don't do either! They kept Dunn, blew off the jackson trade, but DIDN'T make Dunn the offer that a teammate leaked that he wanted __$40-42M for three years.

Rizzo still looks bad inside baseball because it's known that he turned down Jackson-for-Dunn. Jackson is just 27, off the top of my head, throws up to 96 mph, but is only 39-42 career with a 4.50+ ERA. Jackson is no ace. But he has upside potential. And Rizzo would much rather have had Jackson in hand right now __and he wouldn't be looking for "another starting pitcher" like 35-year-old Pavano__ than other two draft picks whichmay mature into real players in '15-'16. Rizzo REALLY wants to get through that '12-'16 window and transform the Nats. Jackson, whether he turned out to be right or wrong about him, was a picher he knew very well, was high ona nd really wanted.

Hopefully, this kind of dysfuynction will end now that there's only one main voice. Of course, variety of opinion has its value. But with the Nats it worked poorly because it wasn't Rizzo and Kasten making a coordinated compromise decision between themselves __"okay, no Jackson deal, but lets SIGN DUNN." Or "okay __make the deal." It was, "Lets not make the deal but....eeeehhhh...lets dawdle until the last week of September and then daydream that we can resign Dunn because that's what the board thinks might happen. Royal screw up. They should have Dunn or Jackson, but not two draft picks. (Okay, now watch the draft picks turn out to be All-Stars.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2010/12/09/DI2010120901754.html

[spidernat]

Lerner operatives are infiltrating the board. I guess PANatsFan and PotCan asked for backup and the Lerners finally approved it. 

[hammondsnats]

According to Linty's post earlier Dunn could've been re-signed for 3 years $42 million.

yeah amazing we decided to pass, isn't it?  but hey we made a splash by bringing in jayson werth, we'll always have that

[spidernat]

yeah amazing we decided to pass, isn't it.

Not considering this ownership group.

[Lintyfresh85]

No.

Rizzo never wanted him to re-sign, whether it was one year, two years or three.

Dunn was not his guy, and he was never going to offer him something he knew he'd take.

[The Chief]

If they really could've had him for 3/42 then IMO it's absolutely shameful that he isn't still a Nat.

[The Chief]

Rizzo never wanted him to re-sign, whether it was one year, two years or three.

Dunn was not his guy, and he was never going to offer him something he knew he'd take.

Granted we'll never really know for sure, but the evidence of this being the case is certainly overwhelming.

[spidernat]

If they really could've had him for 3/42 then IMO it's absolutely shameful that he isn't still a Nat.

I know I was a little shocked at the way some of you took the news and the more I think of it the more I'm leaning toward the way some of you were feeling the day it happened. I can't believe Dunn is gone and we will lose that production over dollars. That crap pisses me off.

No.

Rizzo never wanted him to re-sign, whether it was one year, two years or three.

Dunn was not his guy, and he was never going to offer him something he knew he'd take.

[spidernat]

He is a very bad defensive outfielder.  So was Adam Dunn.  It's a different story at first base.  Dunn learned how to play the position and did a decent job at it.  Hawpe is a professional who can do the same.

Dude, just to piss off Hammonds, you have to complete your account by using this picture as your avatar.   

[KnorrForYourMoney]

If Morse and Hawpe can match their career numbers against lefties and righties respectively, that would yield a .893 OPS vs lefties and an .890 OPS vs righties.

Adam Dunn's OPS last year was .892. 

Those numbers are not equivalent because they aren't park-adjusted.

[RyanTheRiot]

Interesting info about Dunn at the trade deadline.  I guess in the end the Nats wanted it both ways and ended up with essentially nothing.  I think it ultimately comes down to the Nationals wanting to get "more athletes" on the field at all positions.  The search for a long-term solution at first is on.  Hawpe and Morse aren't long term solutions, though I believe Morse could be, if he keeps mashing at the plate and shows he can handle the glove at first.