Author Topic: Nationals new 1B discussion (Read 75739 times)

MarquisDeSade · « **Reply #1650 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:23:41 am »

Quote from: Evolution33 on January 04, 2011, 07:58:10 am

but for some reason these days people are more and more getting realist and pessimist confused. A lot of people are just being negative and saying they are being realistic when in reality they are just being unrealisticly negative, but if you look at the situation through their eyes what you see is a rotation that is:

Jordan Zimmermann: young, unproven, and coming off injury
Livan Hernandez: due for serious regression, old for the age he claims to be and probably older, also fat
Jason Marquis: bone spurs
John Lannan: number 4 or 5 in his best years and terrible first half of last year, second half was fluke like rest of career
Yunesky Maya: great at getting unskilled latinos out but bad numbers in majors last season, will never learn

If you don't feel that's the case please explain why, I'm open to hearing an opposing viewpoint. Based on what we saw out of the above last year and the fact that we didn't sign a "top of the rotation" starter or really any MLB ready starter I can't see this team winning 70 games. Maybe 65 if the pitching holds but if we're depending on Maya, Marquis, Lannan, and Livo to go deep in ballgames we're in serious trouble. Again, I'm opening to hearing why I'm wrong on this so feel free to reply.

natsfan4evr · « **Reply #1651 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:24:56 am »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on January 04, 2011, 10:19:45 am

It wasn't Dunn's fault that Zimmerman lost it in the first place.

http://flotn.blogspot.com/2010/11/open-letter-to-dave-sheinin.html

I have no idea what his real impact was. This goes beyond just errors that Dunn caused directly. Baseball is a mental sport as well, if Zimm's sub-conscience kicked in, that could have also had a negative effect on his defense. Zimmerman knows about Dunn's poor defensive reputation...that is what makes baseball such a grueling sport.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #1652 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:27:24 am »

That's ridiculous.

Zimmerman campaigns night and day about how much Dunn improved as a fielder... and yet, you're saying somewhere deep inside his mind he's really thinking, this guy sucks, better not do one of my fancy flip throws?

I really think that's over analyzing it just to try and prove a point. (Something I'm guilty of quite often)

natsfan4evr · « **Reply #1653 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:32:18 am »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on January 04, 2011, 10:27:24 am

That's ridiculous.

Zimmerman campaigns night and day about how much Dunn improved as a fielder... and yet, you're saying somewhere deep inside his mind he's really thinking, this guy sucks, better not do one of my fancy flip throws?

I really think that's over analyzing it just to try and prove a point.

By pure judgment alone, I feel that Zimm was taking less chances with Dunn at 1st. I was/am a Dunn fan, I'm just stating what I have personally felt. I'm not saying that did indeed happen, but it is definitely a possibility. Zimmerman can physically believe whatever he wants, but your mind plays powerful tricks on you.

I'm not Freud, but I am a real believer in psychoanalysis.

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #1654 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:34:50 am »

Quote from: blue911 on January 04, 2011, 08:22:56 am

I'd take Mike Sweeney long before the ugliest man in the western hemisphere.

Sam Cassell plays baseball?

blue911 · « **Reply #1655 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:35:10 am »

Guzman may have cost Desmond errors with poor DP feeds, Dunn may have cost pitchers outs by not being very mobile, Nyjer may have cost all of us undo anger but it's impossible for Dunn to cost Zimmerman errors. Even the idea that he should have prevented more errors is speculative. Zimmerman is the cause of his own throwing issues.

blue911 · « **Reply #1656 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:36:50 am »

Quote from: DPMOmaha on January 04, 2011, 10:34:50 am

Sam Cassell plays baseball?

In order

Jorge Cantu
Sam Cassell (Handsome by Baltimore standards)
Willie McGee

Evolution33 · « **Reply #1657 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:37:12 am »

Quote from: MarquisDeSade on January 04, 2011, 10:23:41 am

If you don't feel that's the case please explain why, I'm open to hearing an opposing viewpoint. Based on what we saw out of the above last year and the fact that we didn't sign a "top of the rotation" starter or really any MLB ready starter I can't see this team winning 70 games. Maybe 65 if the pitching holds but if we're depending on Maya, Marquis, Lannan, and Livo to go deep in ballgames we're in serious trouble. Again, I'm opening to hearing why I'm wrong on this so feel free to reply.

It is very simple really. Everything I listed was the worst case scenario. I don't think you will ever be convinced of the existence of the other possibilities so there is no reason to talk, but out of 5 guys plus players on the fringe and in the minors the worst case scenario will not play out for everyone.

natsfan4evr · « **Reply #1658 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:40:26 am »

Quote from: blue911 on January 04, 2011, 10:35:10 am

Guzman may have cost Desmond errors with poor DP feeds, Dunn may have cost pitchers outs by not being very mobile, Nyjer may have cost all of us undo anger but it's impossible for Dunn to cost Zimmerman errors. Even the idea that he should have prevented more errors is speculative. Zimmerman is the cause of his own throwing issues.

Do you think it's a coincidence that Zimm's errors are mostly made when he has time to plant himself and think about it? His best plays are made when he gets rid of the ball quickly. What has changed physically from one instance to the other? Nothing...logically, when one has more time to get ready to make a throw, the throw should become more accurate. In Zimm's case, there is clearly a mental aspect to his defense...I don't see how anyone can debate that.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #1659 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:41:58 am »

Quote from: MarquisDeSade on January 04, 2011, 10:23:41 am

If you don't feel that's the case please explain why, I'm open to hearing an opposing viewpoint. Based on what we saw out of the above last year and the fact that we didn't sign a "top of the rotation" starter or really any MLB ready starter I can't see this team winning 70 games. Maybe 65 if the pitching holds but if we're depending on Maya, Marquis, Lannan, and Livo to go deep in ballgames we're in serious trouble. Again, I'm opening to hearing why I'm wrong on this so feel free to reply.

The pitchers you listed aren't good, but have all put up decent seasons except Maya. If our defense improves a little, I could see us at least not regressing

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #1660 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:43:06 am »

Quote from: blue911 on January 04, 2011, 10:36:50 am

In order

Jorge Cantu
Sam Cassell (Handsome by Baltimore standards)
Willie McGee

Got it. Thanks for the clarification.

PANatsFan · « **Reply #1661 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:52:49 am »

Quote from: blue911 on January 04, 2011, 10:36:50 am

In order

Jorge Cantu
Sam Cassell (Handsome by Baltimore standards)
Willie McGee

Cassell is the ugliest extraterrestrial on the east coast.

blue911 · « **Reply #1662 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:54:17 am »

Quote from: natsfan4evr on January 04, 2011, 10:40:26 am

Do you think it's a coincidence that Zimm's errors are mostly made when he has time to plant himself and think about it? His best plays are made when he gets rid of the ball quickly. What has changed physically from one instance to the other? Nothing...logically, when one has more time to get ready to make a throw, the throw should become more accurate. In Zimm's case, there is clearly a mental aspect to his defense...I don't see how anyone can debate that.

What does Dunn have to do with Zimmerman's mental problems? Zimmerman had the same issues long before Adam Dunn even came to DC.

blue911 · « **Reply #1663 on:** January 04, 2011, 10:58:13 am »

Quote from: PANatsFan on January 04, 2011, 10:52:49 am

Cassell is the ugliest extraterrestrial on the east coast.

We should hold a vote

natsfan4evr · « **Reply #1664 on:** January 04, 2011, 11:02:27 am »

Quote from: blue911 on January 04, 2011, 10:54:17 am

What does Dunn have to do with Zimmerman's mental problems? Zimmerman had the same issues long before Adam Dunn even came to DC.

I was just explaining that people are affected by their subconscious side. I'm not saying this is the case, just making a point that we really have no idea what is going on in Zimm's head.

I wanted Dunn to be re-signed. I am grateful for his time spent in Washington, I'm going to miss seeing him play at Nationals Park.

MarquisDeSade · « **Reply #1665 on:** January 04, 2011, 11:12:29 am »

Quote from: Evolution33 on January 04, 2011, 10:37:12 am

It is very simple really. Everything I listed was the worst case scenario. I don't think you will ever be convinced of the existence of the other possibilities so there is no reason to talk, but out of 5 guys plus players on the fringe and in the minors the worst case scenario will not play out for everyone.

That's quite a convincing argument. The reality is we haven't signed any proven MLB ready starters and are, sadly, settling for Adam LaRoche at 1B. Quite the offseason we've had. I just don't put a whole lot of faith into any of our SP other than Zimmermann and maybe Livo. Marquis has been mediocre his entire non-injured career and Maya may or may not turn out to be serviceable or he could be a total bust. Lannan is and will always be a question mark. Right now this is what we have and, to me as a fan of the team and STH, is not a team I see winning a lot of games in 2011.

Evolution33 · « **Reply #1666 on:** January 04, 2011, 11:17:06 am »

Quote from: MarquisDeSade on January 04, 2011, 11:12:29 am

That's quite a convincing argument. The reality is we haven't signed any proven MLB ready starters and are, sadly, settling for Adam LaRoche at 1B. Quite the offseason we've had. I just don't put a whole lot of faith into any of our SP other than Zimmermann and maybe Livo. Marquis has been mediocre his entire non-injured career and Maya may or may not turn out to be serviceable or he could be a total bust. Lannan is and will always be a question mark. Right now this is what we have and, to me as a fan of the team and STH, is not a team I see winning a lot of games in 2011.

It is not a team that will lose 100 though. I would rather have a question mark than Charlie Morton or Gil Meche. Those two are answers and the answer is both or worse than Marquis or Livan. If Marquis has an average Marquis year that is better than what he did last season and it will keep Atilano and Mock from ever touching foot in Nationals Park.

MarquisDeSade · « **Reply #1667 on:** January 04, 2011, 11:19:16 am »

Quote from: Evolution33 on January 04, 2011, 11:17:06 am

...it will keep Atilano and Mock from ever touching foot in Nationals Park.

And that, my friend, is something I believe we both can agree is a good thing.

Evolution33 · « **Reply #1668 on:** January 04, 2011, 12:21:03 pm »

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lee-and-laroche/

Dave Cameron on Lee vs. LaRoche. He makes some good points, and I might agree with him if I weren't a Nationals fan, but I have to watch the games and I think the 2 year deal is what gets the deal done. The idea of Morse at first and then failing and leaving Stairs as the starting 1B is scary. Also Lee is a career .865 OPS and LaRoche is .827. LaRoche has been pretty consistent where as Lee had a Brady Anderson season in 2005.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #1669 on:** January 04, 2011, 12:23:19 pm »

Wouldn't you be propping up the near .40 point difference in OPS if Lee signed with the Nats?

That's a pretty large disparity.

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #1670 on:** January 04, 2011, 12:27:05 pm »

Neither Lee nor LaRoche is going to replace Dunn's offense. Lee might come closer, but he also has the potential to really crater next season.

If LaRoche hits in line with his career stats, I think most people will be reasonably happy with him if his defense is as good as the numbers and his reputation imply.

Evolution33 · « **Reply #1671 on:** January 04, 2011, 12:28:38 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on January 04, 2011, 12:23:19 pm

Wouldn't you be propping up the near .40 point difference in OPS if Lee signed with the Nats?

That's a pretty large disparity.

I didn't want Lee. I think he has a good chance to bounce back, but I always prefered the younger, left handed guy. I agree that LaRoche should probably be on a one year deal, but offering that let's the Padres and Rays back into the discussion. But I would also have prefered Lee over Morse and Kotchman if it had come to that. I am not sure .4 is that big when you throw out the 2005 season which is an anomaly when compared to the rest of Lee's career.

hammondsnats · « **Reply #1672 on:** January 04, 2011, 12:33:38 pm »

I wanted Lee, but will definitely "settle" for LaRoche, especially because he is a lefty.

Zimmerman / LaRoche / Werth

or

Zimmerman / Werth / LaRoche / Morse

spidernat · « **Reply #1673 on:** January 04, 2011, 12:56:52 pm »

Quote from: natsfan4evr on January 04, 2011, 10:16:50 am

LaRoche should help in returning the 3rd base gold glove award to its righteous owner.

Wow, people are still spewing this crap.

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #1674 on:** January 04, 2011, 12:57:29 pm »

Quote from: Tyler Durden on January 04, 2011, 12:27:05 pm

Neither Lee nor LaRoche is going to replace Dunn's offense.

Last year Dunn produced (rbi's + runs scored, not sure if it's a real stat or if I'm making it up, but I think it's a fairly simple representation) 188 (85 + 103) runs. LaRoche put up 175. The drop off isn't that drastic.