Author Topic: Nationals new 1B discussion (Read 75748 times)

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #1675 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:05:40 pm »

I don't think you can use RBI's + Runs as a way to compare players. Different teams, with different talent around them. Reason being, you plug Dunn's line into that Arizona offense, and he out produces LaRoche's numbers... and vice versa with LaRoche seeing his number drop in Washington.

I'd go with the basic triple slash line.

Dunn - .260/.356/.536/.892
LaRoche - .261/.320/.468/.788
Lee - .260/.347/.428/.774

I'd say the 100 plus points of OPS is quite dramatic. But, I guess depending on your viewpoint, it might not matter all that much.

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #1676 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:13:29 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on January 04, 2011, 01:05:40 pm

I don't think you can use RBI's + Runs as a way to compare players. Different teams, with different talent around them. Reason being, you plug Dunn's line into that Arizona offense, and he out produces LaRoche's numbers... and vice versa with LaRoche seeing his number drop in Washington.

I'd go with the basic triple slash line.

Dunn - .260/.356/.536/.892
LaRoche - .261/.320/.468/.788
Lee - .260/.347/.428/.774

I'd say the 100 plus points of OPS is quite dramatic. But, I guess depending on your viewpoint, it might not matter all that much.

It's not a perfect metric, but I think it's a simple one to get a basic idea. Especially on a team like Arizona that strikes out so much he was still able to drive in 100 and score 75. I think he'll put up a better line on a team that should make more contact.

Evolution33 · « **Reply #1677 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:16:32 pm »

I don't think LaRoche compares to Dunn as a baseball player.

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #1678 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:25:11 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on January 04, 2011, 10:11:02 am

9m for 2 years total 18m while 7m for 3 totals 21m, so the third year would effectively cost an extra 3m vs. two years. Isn't it worth it?

We should pay a higher salary for these two years since payroll is low.

After two years, we will be paying our own guys like Zim and Werth more money. Presumably (hopefully?) we will also have brought in some more high level FA's. I'd rather not have another 7 million tied up in Adam LaRoche. Right now, we have no better options - in another 2 years, hopefully we will have better options.

MarquisDeSade · « **Reply #1679 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:26:39 pm »

Assuming we sign LaRoche to $9m next year what's our total payroll for 2011 as of today?

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #1680 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:29:47 pm »

I want to say somewhere in the 54-63 range.

Not sure.

MarquisDeSade · « **Reply #1681 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:32:28 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on January 04, 2011, 01:29:47 pm

I want to say somewhere in the 54-63 range.

Not sure.

Cots has 2010 as $66.2m. Excellent...

RyanTheRiot · « **Reply #1682 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:33:25 pm »

I'm really glad we didn't mortgage our future by signing LaRoche for 3 years. And for under $10 mil, its not a bad contract. I hope he has a bounce back season

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #1683 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:35:10 pm »

Is the deal official?

RyanTheRiot · « **Reply #1684 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:37:29 pm »

It isn't, but I'm assuming it will get done today based on Jim Bowden's tweet.

http://twitter.com/JimBowdenXMFOX/status/22278920510382080

Evolution33 · « **Reply #1685 on:** January 04, 2011, 01:39:50 pm »

I hope it gets done, but deals can fall apart at anytime. Remember Furcal and the Braves. I am still afraid of the wodden sign post and Kotchman.

MarquisDeSade · « **Reply #1686 on:** January 04, 2011, 02:20:35 pm »

Quote from: Evolution33 on January 04, 2011, 01:39:50 pm

I hope it gets done, but deals can fall apart at anytime. Remember Furcal and the Braves. I am still afraid of the wodden sign post and Kotchman.

You don't like the prospect of hearing "now batting first baseman, Casey 'Assman' Kotchman"?

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #1687 on:** January 04, 2011, 02:27:12 pm »

Where does the 'assman' comment come from?

I've seen that a lot.

Coladar · « **Reply #1688 on:** January 04, 2011, 02:39:14 pm »

Quote from: RyanTheRiot on January 04, 2011, 01:33:25 pm

I'm really glad we didn't mortgage our future by signing LaRoche for 3 years. And for under $10 mil, its not a bad contract. I hope he has a bounce back season

I'm sorry, I don't understand this. Signing him for $18 mil for two year, or $21 mil for three years? If he sucks hard, worst case scenario is you paid $3 mil for a way above average bench player. I just don't understand this viewpoint that you don't want to sign him to three years coming from multiple people when the cost is almost the same. That's like me going into a store having a buy one, get one, and saying no thanks, I only want one. If LaRoche is good enough to earn nearly $10mil per year, a third year for $3 mil is such a no brainer it makes my brain hurt.

Obed_Marsh · « **Reply #1689 on:** January 04, 2011, 02:45:02 pm »

Quote from: RyanTheRiot on January 04, 2011, 01:33:25 pm

I'm really glad we didn't mortgage our future by signing LaRoche for 3 years.

How do you know? Source?

natsfan4evr · « **Reply #1690 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:21:13 pm »

The same people complaining about LaRoche were the same people that wanted Nick Johnson on the team.

LaRoche >>>>>>>> Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young

Obed_Marsh · « **Reply #1691 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:27:48 pm »

I am concerned we'll sign LaRoche for 3/30 like that lunatic on MLBTRumors keeps chirping. Granted he is the best of what is left. I'd rather have one year of Lee.

More than all that I am going to miss Dunn.

Stupid Rizzo.

blue911 · « **Reply #1692 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:28:07 pm »

Quote from: natsfan4evr on January 04, 2011, 03:21:13 pm

The same people complaining about LaRoche were the same people that wanted Nick Johnson on the team.

LaRoche >>>>>>>> Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young

Not me. There's still plenty of life left in the Sign Adam Dunn rants. That horse isn't even sickly, let alone dead.

PatsNats28 · « **Reply #1693 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:28:22 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on January 04, 2011, 02:27:12 pm

Where does the 'assman' comment come from?

I've seen that a lot.

it was explained like 20 pages ago, it's some seinfeld reference.

Ray D · « **Reply #1694 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:33:51 pm »

Quote from: natsfan4evr on January 04, 2011, 03:21:13 pm

The same people complaining about LaRoche were the same people that wanted Nick Johnson on the team.

Not me, I'd rather have LaRoche. But if we didn't get LaRoche - or I should say, if we DON'T get him, because as of this moment it is still not a sure thing - I have argued that signing Nick makes good sense.

The Chief · « **Reply #1695 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:35:48 pm »

Quote from: DPMOmaha on January 04, 2011, 01:13:29 pm

It's not a perfect metric, but I think it's a simple one to get a basic idea. Especially on a team like Arizona that strikes out so much he was still able to drive in 100 and score 75. I think he'll put up a better line on a team that should make more contact.

It's a nice idea until you realize that Dunn still drove in 100+ with the lowest RISP of his career (relative to his overall performance).

natsfan4evr · « **Reply #1696 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:37:13 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on January 04, 2011, 03:28:07 pm

Not me. There's still plenty of life left in the Sign Adam Dunn rants. That horse isn't even sickly, let alone dead.

We would be jumping for joy 3 years ago. I'm glad the perspective has changed, but LaRoche could effectively be a 1st baseman on any ML team. That's way more than you can say about Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young, or Aaron Boone.

The Chief · « **Reply #1697 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:39:01 pm »

Question for the sabre gurus:

wOBA is based on the statistical likelihood of driving in runs, right? So if Adam Dunn version (A) drives in 80 in a given season and Adam Dunn (B) drives in 100 with otherwise identical numbers, does (B) come out with a better wOBA than (A)?

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #1698 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:44:53 pm »

I don't know how it's calculated... all I know is Dunn killed LaRoche in wRAA (wOBA translated into runs, I believe) (30.2 - 5.4) or something crazy like that.

wOBA
Dunn .379
LaRoche .339

wRAA
Dunn 30.2
LaRoche 5.4

wRC
Dunn 139
LaRoche 107

I forgot what it all means... but, I do know that it's not a fair fight.

PatsNats28 · « **Reply #1699 on:** January 04, 2011, 03:46:51 pm »

Quote from: The Chief on January 04, 2011, 03:39:01 pm

Question for the sabre gurus:

wOBA is based on the statistical likelihood of driving in runs, right? So if Adam Dunn version (A) drives in 80 in a given season and Adam Dunn (B) drives in 100 with otherwise identical numbers, does (B) come out with a better wOBA than (A)?

Wait, so you're saying that those are RBI totals? (80 and 100). If so, then his wOBA would be the same. It's saying that an average will score X amount of runs, a triple will score X amount of runs (adjusted so that an out is worth 0 runs, following the idea of BA or OBP). It's scaled to OBP, I'm pretty sure not to league average though.