Spring Training Thread

[blue911]

If the Nats could wave a magic wand and have all of their pitchers healthy, the starting 5 would look something like: Marquis,Wang,Lannan,Olsen & Zimmermann. But such isn't the case and the Nationals are searching for three pitchers from the 6-12 ranks to fill in/step up.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

And there's the rub.  Someone getting the fifth spot in the rotation isn't a predictor of how many starts they'll get during the regular season.

[tomterp]

Um, no.  He's comparing the fifth starter in terms of starts and the sixth starter in terms of starts, yet claiming it proves something about the pitcher who is penciled in for the fifth spot in the rotation out of camp (going into the regular season).  Case in point, he compares Mock, Martis, and Martin, when the better question would've been Zimmermann vs. Mock.  Granted, Zimmermann didn't have many starts, but he most assuredly would have finished out the season if it weren't for the TJ surgery.

Ok, I see a little of your point, but not all.  Yes, he's making an inference to the spring training battles, but to do so he's comparing the difference between the 5th starter job and the 6th.  The point is, due to injury in any rotation member, or suckitude, plus off days, the difference between the 5th and 6th starters over the course of the season is not particularly significant (delta = about 4 starts). 

[tomterp]

And there's the rub.  Someone getting the fifth spot in the rotation isn't a predictor of how many starts they'll get during the regular season.

Of course not.  And being the 6th starter is very nearly as good as being the 5th starter.   In the Nats' case, 5,6 and 7 all got the same # of starts.

[blue911]

I hate to say this, but I agree with Knorr, Tommy Bennett's a fool. If you rank teams pitchers by the number of starts, then of course there will be a small margin between #'s 5 & 6. Why not rank the pitchers by what their rank was when they broke camp?

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Ok, I see a little of your point, but not all.  Yes, he's making an inference to the spring training battles, but to do so he's comparing the difference between the 5th starter job and the 6th.  The point is, due to injury in any rotation member, or suckitude, plus off days, the difference between the 5th and 6th starters over the course of the season is not particularly significant (delta = about 4 starts). 

I get it, but it diminishes the importance of those instances where a guy gets the fifth starter job out of camp and eventually becomes a mainstay in the rotation (i.e. 2nd or 3rd starter according to this guy's definition) rather than being a sixth starter and only getting about 12 starts.  Jeff Niemann last year is a prime example of this.

[tomterp]

I hate to say this, but I agree with Knorr, Tommy Bennett's a fool. If you rank teams pitchers by the number of starts, then of course there will be a small margin between #'s 5 & 6. Why not rank the pitchers by what their rank was when they broke camp?

Because that would be less meaningful, since there's no magic in the day they break camp vs. the next day or the next day etc.   

A more basic question we could ask about all of these battles is whether the ostensible winner will end up pitching more than the loser. Put slightly differently, what difference is there between the pitcher who pitches the fifth-most starts on a team and the pitcher who pitches the sixth-most starts?

[tomterp]

I get it, but it diminishes the importance of those instances where a guy gets the fifth starter job out of camp and eventually becomes a mainstay in the rotation (i.e. 2nd or 3rd starter according to this guy's definition) rather than being a sixth starter and only getting about 12 starts.  Jeff Niemann last year is a prime example of this.

Tommy replies (not to you, but from his article)

Question of the Day

Certainly, there are better ways of measuring which is the fifth and which is the sixth starter than mere games started. But does this simple method show that, over the course of the season, even the guys who lose out on the fifth starter's job can still expect to start at least 7-10 games per year? Is there a psychic significance to making the rotation out of spring training I am overlooking? How about an economic difference?

[balzig777]

the simple truth is there are 35 pitchers for 20 or so pos. in aaa and the bigs, plus the nats want another one. The humans on this board have their favorites, the other board has theirs,fact is a whole lotta guys aint gonna be involved as a matter of numbers of pos vs pitchers.

[blue911]

Because that would be less meaningful, since there's no magic in the day they break camp vs. the next day or the next day etc.  

Tom, his whole article is meaningless. Of course the pitcher with the 5th most starts will have more starts than the pitcher with the 6th most starts. That is all he is saying. Golly really, that's quite earth shaking.

[tomterp]

the simple truth is there are 35 pitchers for 20 or so pos. in aaa and the bigs, plus the nats want another one. The humans on this board have their favorites, the other board has theirs,fact is a whole lotta guys aint gonna be involved as a matter of numbers of pos vs pitchers.

Yeah, you always wonder where they are going to put them all, but there will be a few DL's in the group (Wang, Olsen, Zimmermann to start with), maybe a couple of retirements, and maybe a AA (Myers) or two.  Maybe a trade (still think Rizzo would like to deal from the surplus) and last, and least, a few will be made free agents.

[tomterp]

Tom, his whole article is meaningless. Of course the pitcher with the 5th most starts will have more starts than the pitcher with the 6th most starts. That is all he is saying. Golly really, that's quite earth shaking.

Yeah, but not the dramatic difference that some might suppose. 

There's a bit more to the article, but I wanted to focus on this dimension.  He also found NO correlation between good teams or bad teams, as it seems to be injury driven and thus more random than quality or depth driven.

[Spinman]

I had a really good conversation with a MLB pitcher last night who has been in the league 23 years. His take on the 5th staters spot in the rotation is to have that guy take the mound 30 times a year. Get him to 160-180 innings. Have the other 4 guys get 800 innings between them. There are 1458 innings in a regular season. That would leave about 498 innings for the bullpen to work in. He said if the bullpen has to pitch 6-700 innings or more your team is destined for failure. Innings eaters is what every club is looking for. It is about time the Nats let our Young Guns eat up some innings and take them off of their pitch counts.
 After he made these comments I said to him " If the Texas Rangers win their Division all this pitch count stuff will be thrown out the window" He said " You've got it!" That pitcher is... to be cont...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

For the record, I do not believe there is such a thing as excess starting pitching, therefore I do not advocate turning anyone into an extra in a Charlton Heston movie.  

In 2009, most every NL team uses 6-8 starters more than 50 IP, and half use at least one more more than 40 IP.  

9 - NYM, 9 SD (+1 > 40 IP)
8 - FLA, MIL (+1 over 40 IP), WSN (+2 >= 40 IP)
7 - Hou, LAD, PHI (+1> 40 IP), PIT (+1 > 40 IP), St. L.,
6 - AZ, ATL, CHI, CIN (+3 over 40 IP),
5 -Col (+2 > 40), SF (+1  > 40 IP)

[blue911]

I had a really good conversation with a MLB pitcher last night who has been in the league 23 years. His take on the 5th staters spot in the rotation is to have that guy take the mound 30 times a year. Get him to 160-180 innings. Have the other 4 guys get 800 innings between them. There are 1638 innings in a regular season. That would leave about 678 innings for the bullpen to work in. He said if the bullpen has to pitch 800 innings or more your team is destined for failure. Innings eaters is what every club is looking for. It is about time the Nats let our Young Guns eat up some innings and take them off of their pitch counts.
 After he made these comments I said to him " If the Texas Rangers win their Division all this pitch count stuff will be thrown out the window" He said " You've got it!" That pitcher is... to be cont...

1638 Inning! There are only 162 games for petes sake.

[tomterp]

1638 Inning! There are only 162 games for petes sake.

Playoffs?     

[tomterp]

After he made these comments I said to him " If the Texas Rangers win their Division all this pitch count stuff will be thrown out the window" He said " You've got it!"

The change in management down in Arlington, and the subsequent change in philosophy of developing pitchers, will remain fascinating to watch as we go forward.  Very very early returns seem favorable.

[Spinman]

Playoffs?     

Sorry about that. I calculated it wrong. He was talking so fast I didn't have anything to write with.

[Spinman]

You understand my point, though.

[blue911]

You understand my point, though.

Yep. It's all good. When we were kids we weren't allowed to throw any more than 10,000 pitches a day.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I had a really good conversation with a MLB pitcher last night who has been in the league 23 years. His take on the 5th staters spot in the rotation is to have that guy take the mound 30 times a year. Get him to 160-180 innings. Have the other 4 guys get 800 innings between them.

Spinman - while it ideal to have that kind of rotation, I just don't think it is realistic to plan that way.  I'm guessing off of the above list that 3 rotations did that last year in the NL (Col, SF, and maybe AZ or ATL).  There were only about 45 starters in the NL with over 160 IP last year.  That's less than 3 per team.  The 80th starter (5x16) in terms of IP in the NL last year only went 76 IP (Chris Young).

{edit - just checked - Aaron Cook pitched 158 IP so the rockies were the closest to having a #5 go 160 IP. Giants only had Lincecum / Cain / Zito make 160, D-backs only 4}

[Kevrock]

Are there any articles out there about how the Nationals manage their pitchers, pitch counts, and inning counts? I've seen articles about pitchers getting shut down when they reach their inning limit, but I guess I'm looking for a more comprehensive look at their pitching philosophy.

[PANatsFan]

Can I pull a kimnat and ask someone to summarize the thread? A ton of posts

[balzig777]

Can I pull a kimnat and ask someone to summarize the thread? A ton of posts

no

[blue911]

Can I pull a kimnat and ask someone to summarize the thread? A ton of posts

Don Sutton is still very high on Collin Balester.