O-Dog (Orlando Hudson)

[The Chief]

SF just doesn't want to admit that Zimm owes a big part of his career season to having Dunn behind him.

Oh wait, he already did.

that's a good point, actually. I didn't realize the impact of Dunn batting behind RZ. good call

[tomterp]

Yes... because using the official website of MLB for stats is such a terrible idea.

You need to use the stats in SF's own mind for the really important analyses.

[I can Throw]

Can I use Chone in a game of scrabble? reminds me of Kramer "You know to Quone someone? Oh no wonder its not in there, you need a medical dictionary! You know to Quone someone"

[amanuel]

MLB.com - The Nationals are looking at Adam Kennedy as a potential solution at second base.

Washington is interested in Orlando Hudson as well, but his price tag may prove to be too high.

A source told MLB.com that Kennedy would sign with the Nationals for considerably less than Hudson is asking for on the market.

It is believed Hudson is asking for $9 million for 2010.

Dont really know much about Kennedy what do you guys think?

[I can Throw]

2010 CHONE projected batting and defense runs and WAR, from Fangraphs:

Hudson      2.2 / -1.0 / 2.2
Uggla      14.0 / -7.0 / 3.1
Kennedy  -6.3 / -4.0 / 0.8
Fontenot  -2.4 / 1.0 / 1.4
Lowrie     -4.4 / -4.0 / 1.0

Uggla and Hudson are rated as full time players, Kennedy 3/4, Fontenot and Lowrie 2/3.  Since this counts accumulated projected runs, you can assume the run totals go up as the later three get closer to full time.  Fontenot might be pretty cheap and attractive out of this bunch.  I still think Guzman will actually be better defensively at 2d than all of these guys.   CHONE project a 1.8 WAR with 0.0 defense, but I don't know if that is at 2d or SS (looks like 2d).

Hudson and Uggla were 2.9 WAR last year, so I think the difference is based on a predicted deterioration of Hudson's offense.

Lowrie, of course, is the younger guy with upside.  With Bill Hall on the team and a slew off SS prospects behind him, this is kind of a make or break year for him.  He's slated for AAA to prove he's healthy and recover his prospect status.  He'll stay there until there is an injury ahead of him.  I think they are open to trading him, but the price may be high.  They think he is an MLB starter with average hitting and above average fielding at SS (not based on last year, but based on his minors track record). 

Depending on your posts per page, check out the previous page for more info.

[EdStroud]

Dont really know much about Kennedy what do you guys think?

Kennedy hasn't played more then 84 games in a season at 2nd since 2006.  Makes me question his range at 34 years old.

[sportsfan882]

where the f did this come from?

Is Ladson just making it up or are they actually going to go with Guzman at SS?

If the Nationals are able to sign Orlando Hudson or Adam Kennedy to play second base, Cristian Guzman most likely will remain at shortstop.

The Nationals also could trade Guzman to make room for Ian Desmond at short, but that seems unlikely because it would be difficult for Washington to trade Guzman, who is scheduled to make $8 million this coming season.

Washington had planned to switch Guzman from shortstop to second base because of the lack of range to his right and shoulder surgery he had after the 2009 season. But the Nationals apparently changed their minds as they try hard to acquire Hudson or Kennedy.

General manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman were not available for comment, but Guzman's agent, Stanley King, said his client believes he is a valuable shortstop.

"Cristian has expressed that he is willing to help in any way the Nationals see fit," King said via phone. "He is a Washington National and he would like to make certain that we are all on the same page with what the future holds."

King believes Guzman, 31, will have a better season in 2010 because he will be 100 percent healthy when the season starts. Guzman is already throwing the baseball and is no longer having the bunion problems he had during the second half of the '09 season. King said the foot problems were a major reason Guzman lacked range at shortstop.

"Cristian has something to prove this year because of all the rumblings and grumblings about the way he plays defense," King said. "Nobody has even asked if the ailments or foot issues contributed to his lack of range. It was a question that was missed. I think he will show that he can help the team defensively. He is not a defensive liability. Hopefully, it's a good year for him as well as the Nationals."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100113&content_id=7911816&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was&partnerId=rss_was

[I can Throw]

I hope I have a job so I can get the Extra Innings package.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

where the f did this come from?

Is Ladson just making it up or are they actually going to go with Guzman at SS?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100113&content_id=7911816&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was&partnerId=rss_was

Just a guess - they may want Desmond to get more time at AAA, like a couple of months, since he was not called up to Syracuse until late in the year (July, right?).  I know he smoked the ball there and after his call up, but they may want him to consolidate at AAA and concentrate on his glove work rather than bring him up at the start of the year. They probably think that they can move Guz mid-season when there is less of his contract left. 

I/M/O, I preferred the good D / low cost vet SS that they were going to bring in at the start of the offseason, but that ship sailed.  If they had done that, and Desmond beat him out, fine.  We could have even move Des to 2d and Guz back to SS if we needed to.  but now we are talking a vet who will expect to start at 2d, not necessarily upgrading the D, maybe not upgrading the O significantly, and making it tougher to for Deminosa to crack the line up. 

[PANatsFan]

but now we are talking a vet who will expect to start at 2d, not necessarily upgrading the D, maybe not upgrading the O significantly, and making it tougher to for Deminosa to crack the line up. 

100% agreed. Just say no to Kennedy and Hudson.

[Lintyfresh85]

but now we are talking a vet who will expect to start at 2d, not necessarily upgrading the D, maybe not upgrading the O significantly , and making it tougher to for Deminosa to crack the line up. 

Woah, woah, woah.

You of all people should know that bolded part isn't even remotely true.

These stats are from your (and my) favorite website Fangraphs.

Offensive runs above average based on park adjusted wOBA (basically, how many runs his bat is better than the average player)

Since 2002 when Fangraphs started tracking these things.

O-Dog : -0.8, -7.5, 2.1, -5.1, 4.3, 10.9, 8.2, 9.0 = Total = 21.1
Kennedy : 10.0, 0.9, 2.9, 2.0, -9.0, -19.1, -5.9, 5.9 = Total = -12.2
Guzman : -22.5, -15.8, -16.5, -29.8, 7.1, 6.0, -12.9 = Total = -84.4

I'd say its pretty obvious Hudson would be a massive offensive upgrade over Guzman, and a solid upgrade over Kennedy.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

^ Finally someone agrees with me.  I've advocated signing Hudson because he actually gets on base, which makes him immensely more valuable than Guzman offensively.

[DPMOmaha]

Offensive runs above average based on park adjusted wOBA (basically, how many runs his bat is better than the average player)

So, let me ask this.  Does fangraphs how many runs a player is good for, as in, how many his bat is good for and how many his glove costs?  It would be intersting to compare players in that way.  We've had the argument with Uggla (well, really only one was arguing for Uggla, but I digress) and Guz and Hudson, it'd be curious to see how the stats speak with all that combined.  I think anecdotally, I know the answer, but not sure if the facts support that.  I'd be curious to see how Kennedy fits into that discussion and for my own curiosity someone like David Eckstein does too.  Don't know if that's possible or not.

[The Chief]

I'm not going to pretend I know what any of Linty's post means, but Guz and "O-Dog" both scored the same number of runs in 2009.  OD had 10 more (+19%) RBIs.  I have no horse in this race so make of that what you will.  Personally I'd be fine with replacing Guzman with Hudson, but I'm not sure if it'd be as massive of an upgrade as some of you seem to think, at the plate or in the field.

Hudson is worth exactly what we are said to be offering him, in my opinion.  Which means Guzman is worth nowhere near what he's due in 2010 (obvious mule is obvious).

[Lintyfresh85]

So, let me ask this.  Does fangraphs how many runs a player is good for, as in, how many his bat is good for and how many his glove costs?  It would be intersting to compare players in that way.  We've had the argument with Uggla (well, really only one was arguing for Uggla, but I digress) and Guz and Hudson, it'd be curious to see how the stats speak with all that combined.  I think anecdotally, I know the answer, but not sure if the facts support that.  I'd be curious to see how Kennedy fits into that discussion and for my own curiosity someone like David Eckstein does too.  Don't know if that's possible or not.

Yes.

I'll post it in a second.

[Lintyfresh85]

Ok, the metric I'm posting is called RAR (Runs above Replacement Player) includes (Batting + Fielding + Replacement + Positional)

Batting - already went over this... but, Parks Adjusted Runs above average
Fielding - Runs above average based on UZR
Replacement - Replacement level set at 20 runs per 600 plate appearances
Positional - Gives a score to each position, DH gets the lowest score while Catcher gets the highest.

Hudson since 2002 - RAR : 191.3
Kennedy since 2002 - RAR : 168.7
Guzman since 2002 - RAR : 76.6

So, in the last 8 years, on average Hudson has been worth 23.9 RAR, Kennedy is 21.1 RAR, and Guzman is at 10.9 (Guz only played 7 years... sitting out 2006)

So, in comparison to Guzman

Hudson = +13 runs a year
Kennedy = +10.2 runs a year

[DPMOmaha]

that's what I thought.  Thanks.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I'm not going to pretend I know what any of Linty's post means, but Guz and "O-Dog" both scored the same number of runs in 2009.  OD had 10 more (+19%) RBIs.  I have no horse in this race so make of that what you will.  Personally I'd be fine with replacing Guzman with Hudson, but I'm not sure if it'd be as massive of an upgrade as some of you seem to think, at the plate or in the field.

Hudson is worth exactly what we are said to be offering him, in my opinion.  Which means Guzman is worth nowhere near what he's due in 2010 (obvious mule is obvious).

It basically means that OBP is way more important than counting stats.

[PANatsFan]

Ok, the metric I'm posting is called RAR (Runs above Replacement Player) includes (Batting + Fielding + Replacement + Positional)

Batting - already went over this... but, Parks Adjusted Runs above average
Fielding - Runs above average based on UZR
Replacement - Replacement level set at 20 runs per 600 plate appearances
Positional - Gives a score to each position, DH gets the lowest score while Catcher gets the highest.

Hudson since 2002 - RAR : 191.3
Kennedy since 2002 - RAR : 168.7
Guzman since 2002 - RAR : 76.6

So, in the last 8 years, on average Hudson has been worth 23.9 RAR, Kennedy is 21.1 RAR, and Guzman is at 10.9 (Guz only played 7 years... sitting out 2006)

So, in comparison to Guzman

Hudson = +13 runs a year
Kennedy = +10.2 runs a year

Nyjer was the 3rd most valuable CF in 2009. Yeah.

As for 2B, Uggla was 7th over the last 3 seasons. Phillips was 5th. Flop is down below Maicer Izturis, but was top 5 last season.

Hudson is way below Uggla and Phillips, and his bat gives him the value. His defense has been 9 runs below average. He's not a good fielder. I'd rather develop Desmond than get some extra hits out of Hudson, and Hudson/Guzman would be a terrible DP combination.

[PANatsFan]

After looking at Guzman, and seeing that his RAR is 9.3 (less than a win), cut his ass and sign a 2B. He had a dreadful offensive season in 2009.

[Lintyfresh85]

Nyjer was the 3rd most valuable CF in 2009. Yeah.

As for 2B, Uggla was 7th over the last 3 seasons. Phillips was 5th. Flop is down below Maicer Izturis, but was top 5 last season.

Hudson is way below Uggla and Phillips, and his bat gives him the value. His defense has been 9 runs below average. He's not a good fielder. I'd rather develop Desmond than get some extra hits out of Hudson, and Hudson/Guzman would be a terrible DP combination.

No one is saying they want Hudson/Guzman. We're saying Hudson/Desmond would make the team better than Guzman/Desmond.

[houston-nat]

Hudson/Desmond would indeed make the team better than Guzman/Desmond. But on the other hand, if we are going to move Desmond to second to make room for Espinosa in 2011, why not move him there now, even in AAA if necessary, and sign a shortstop instead?

[blue911]

No one is saying they want Hudson/Guzman. We're saying Hudson/Desmond would make the team better than Guzman/Desmond.

Explain the weighing used in the RAR formula.

[DPMOmaha]

Hudson/Desmond would indeed make the team better than Guzman/Desmond. But on the other hand, if we are going to move Desmond to second to make room for Espinosa in 2011, why not move him there now, even in AAA if necessary, and sign a shortstop instead?

Where will Espinoza start, what level?

[Lintyfresh85]

Explain the weighing used in the RAR formula.

There is no weighting.

They just add in the four components and that's the total RAR.