2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing

[Obed_Marsh]

We signed LF Chris Duncan? Why? He seems to have moderate power or used to have it.

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=was#month=1&year=2010&team_id=120

[tomterp]

hopefully to a minor league deal. the last two years he has been dreadful. I think he is off the juice.

2006: 22 HRs in 280 ABs
2007: 21 HRs in 375 ABs
2008: 6 HRs in 222 ABs
2009: 5 HRs in 260 ABs

Sure looks suspicious. 

[Vega]

Do any of the minor league relievers (Thompson, Severino, etc.) have a shot at making the team?

[Lintyfresh85]

Isn't Thompson a starter?

[sportsfan882]

Yes. He'll be in AA or AAA.

We might see Severino by the end of the season.

Ladson mentioned that we might see someone like Atilano or Estrada compete for BP spots but they are longshots.

[houston-nat]

According to MLBTR comments, Tyler Walker has "a sweat problem." Should be fun to watch him play.

[PANatsFan]

According to MLBTR comments, Tyler Walker has "a sweat problem." Should be fun to watch him play.

He and Dukes will get along "swimmingly"

[Nathan]

I've always noticed that about Dukes.

I myself suffer from hyperhidrosis, it's not fun.

[shoeshineboy]

We signed LF Chris Duncan? Why? He seems to have moderate power or used to have it.

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=was#month=1&year=2010&team_id=120

Minor league deal, so no risk. And if it happens to influence his Dad at all to consider bringing his pitching coach abilities our way, all the better. In the end though, he's a potential LH bat for the bench, which is something we can use.

All the other signings in this recent batch were good as well. I like the relief help, but really like the compelling upside of signing Chuck James to a minor league deal. Nice move.

[Obed_Marsh]

Minor league deal, so no risk.

Oh cool. I saw very little written about it and didn't know it was a minor league deal. Thank the gods.

[shoeshineboy]

Happened to come across this interesting speculation on the bleachereport.com site.

What if Duncan faced just right-handers and Justin Maxwell hit against lefties? Based on their career averages, their production would look this way, assuming Duncan gets 350 at-bats and Maxwell 250:

Duncan: .270/.366/.476, 18 homers and 55 RBI
Maxwell: .286/.362/.429, 10 homers and 53 RBI

So, if both players hold true to their career stats, they could produce a .277-28-106 line with solid on-base and slugging percents.

So the signing of Duncan is low risk, adds a potential LH bat of the bench, and also presents an interesting platoon opportunity if the team is able to deal Willingham for value.

[PANatsFan]

I've always noticed that about Dukes.

I myself suffer from hyperhidrosis, it's not fun.

Boys and girls, what's wrong with this paragraph:

Alternatively, hyperhydrosis may be classified according to the amount of skin that is affected and its possible causes.[2]:700 In this approach, excessive sweating in an area that is greater than 100 cm2 (up to generalized sweating of the entire body) is differentiated from sweating that affects only a small area. Dont read any more, use apple cider viniger, it changed my life put it on at night and in the morning!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperhidrosis
Yeah, and kids today use wikipedia as a true research source.

[sportsfan882]

good posts SSB

[Nathan]

Boys and girls, what's wrong with this paragraph:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperhidrosis
Yeah, and kids today use wikipedia as a true research source.

Yeah, I saw that article when I googled to make sure I had the correct spelling.  I was going to edit it but I'm too lazy at the moment.

though I am tempted to try it and see if it works.  I'd try anything at this point.

[amanuel]

Boys and girls, what's wrong with this paragraph:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperhidrosis
Yeah, and kids today use wikipedia as a true research source.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Excerpts from his chat last Thursday:

Tom Boswell: If you want a one-hour "fun" project, go to baseball-reference.com or your fav site and look at the rotations of every team in '09. If you want to be even a close-to-.500 team (let alone good), you absolutely have to have three stable starting pitchers who can give you 600 innings with a 4.00-to-4.30 ERA.

By the way - for fun, I'll amend this post later, but I think it is closer to 50/50 on +.500 teams from 2009 that got 600 IP from 3 pitchers.  

---------------------------
Edit - Above .500 teams from / IP of top 3 pitchers > 600

NYY  / yes (CC, AJ, Pettite)
Bos   / No   (Lester, Beckett, Penny - 547.1)
TB   / yes (shields, garza, niemann)
MN  /   No (Blackburn, Baker, Liriano - 542.1)
Det  / yes  (Verlander, Jackson, Porcello)
LAA  / No (Weaver, Saunders, Lackey - 573.1)
Tex  / No (Millwood, Feldman, Holland - 526.2)
Sea  / No (Hernandez, Washburn, Rowland-Smith - 468)
Phi / No (Blanton, Hamels, Happ - 555)
Fla /  No (Johnson, Nolasco, Volstad - 553)
ATL / Yes (Vazquez, Jurrjens, Lowe)
St. L / Yes (Wainright, Pineiro, Carpenter)
CHC / No (Dempster, Lilly, Zambrano - 546.1)
LAD / No (Wolf, Billingsley, Kershaw - 581.2)
Col / Yes (Jimenez, Marquis, de la Rosa)
SF /  Yes (Lincecum, Cain, Zito)

Score - 600+ = 7 (3 AL, 4 NL), < 600 = 9 (5 AL, 4 NL).  I did not look at the ERAs.  If you used a cut between 550 and 570 IP, two more teams would have had 3 innings horses.  Also, this does not figure in Cliff Lee, who had the innings but spent most with Cleveland and Philadelphia.  Still, his assertion that "If you want to be even a close-to-.500 team (let alone good), you absolutely have to have three stable starting pitchers who can give you 600 innings with a 4.00-to-4.30 ERA," is far from true.

[PatsNats28]

Boys and girls, what's wrong with this paragraph:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperhidrosis
Yeah, and kids today use wikipedia as a true research source.

use it all the time

[shoeshineboy]

good posts SSB

Another useful stat on Duncan's production against RHP:

"For his career, Duncan has averaged a homerun every 18.1 at-bats against righties while Dunn connects once every 17.3 at-bats."

Makes a good argument for his usefulness as a LH pinch hitter.

[PANatsFan]

Another useful stat on Duncan's production against RHP:

"For his career, Duncan has averaged a homerun every 18.1 at-bats against righties while Dunn connects once every 17.3 at-bats."

Makes a good argument for his usefulness as a LH pinch hitter.

Does it? Pinch hitting seems to be a separate skill, since the batter sees only one pitcher, often a reliever. How many AB's does the best pinch hitter see, even with a double-switch maniac like Acta?  (I'm just pushing the issue, I think it was a good minor league signing).

[shoeshineboy]

Does it? Pinch hitting seems to be a separate skill, since the batter sees only one pitcher, often a reliever. How many AB's does the best pinch hitter see, even with a double-switch maniac like Acta?  (I'm just pushing the issue, I think it was a good minor league signing).

Well, there are two key things to consider. First, Duncan is a little older (he'll be 29 in May) and has never been an everyday player, so unlike younger, inexperienced players, who need regular FT at bats to be consistent, he may adapt better, especially if it is a good matchup. More importantly, PHing success can be as much about how the opposition perceives a batter as the batter's ability in the role. The fact is that when a guy who has shown that level of success against RHP in part-time duty steps to the plate as a PHer, it has an impact on how the other team deals with it. And that's a good quality in a PHer.

[tomterp]

---------------------------
 "If you want to be even a close-to-.500 team (let alone good), you absolutely have to have three stable starting pitchers who can give you 600 innings with a 4.00-to-4.30 ERA," is far from true.

When Boz says stuff like that, I don't really take him literally.  I'd accept 575 as 600-ish or so.  But still, it appears he was stretching the point, and good job pulling the facts together.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

When Boz says stuff like that, I don't really take him literally.  I'd accept 575 as 600-ish or so.  But still, it appears he was stretching the point, and good job pulling the facts together.

Yes, it kind of annoys me when he pulls out "facts in his mind."  It bothers me less than when a message board poster does it because he is supposed to be authoritative, while a guy on a board is only as believable as his track record.

Interesting, though, to look at the #3 on the teams with 600+ IP out of their rotation. Pettite, Niemann, Porcello, Lowe, Carpenter, de la Rosa, Zito, with Lackey and Kershaw if you put the cut at 570 IP.  Garland might be in that class (needs more research), but I certainly would not put Washburn in with them.   

If they can't land Garland, then as I've argued the only way you get comparable production is the mix and match approach.  The information above shows a lot of .500+ teams use that as a Plan B (in fact, about the same number as those who use the 3 horse approach).  If you can get 110 innings out of Bedard or Wang and another 90 out of Olsen, I think that would be comparable in performance to the 3 horses group.  For the Nats, it might be a good fit with all the young 3-4-5 candidates. You can see who survives among our crew of younger pitchers in the 4/5 slots.

[hammondsnats]

Duncan > Bernadina, so fine by me.  He'll battle Maxwell for back-up OF.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Tom/Dunnkey - It might be a pain in the butt, but perhaps a thread pulling some of the stuff on the recent FA starting pitcher discussions might be worth pulling out of this and the O-Dog thread, and leave the O-dog thread as MI only and the new thread as SP only. This thread could be miscellaneous.  I might try tonight with liberal use of quotes and selectivity.

[aspenbubba]

Who is off the 40 man now?