2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing

[Sniper 1]

Folks, what I am missing here?  Capps ERA last season was horrible, and dropped down to 5.80 when his September ERA was "only" 4.50.  He was over 6.00 to that point. Doesn't this concern you at all?  Doesn't this suggest an injury?

[Nathan]

Folks, what I am missing here?  Capps ERA last season was horrible, and dropped down to 5.80 when his September ERA was "only" 4.50.  He was over 6.00 to that point. Doesn't this concern you at all?  Doesn't this suggest an injury?

Yes, which is why a 1 year deal is preferable.  If he goes back to his norms, we are gravy, if not, its only a 1 year deal.

[sportsfan882]

I agree with sniper and Capps should not be considered a bullpen savior.

Maybe he will rebound, maybe he won't. who knows?

[sportsfan882]

Ladson: I spoke to agent Paul Kinzer a few minutes ago. He said Matt Capps is not close to a deal with the Nats -- yet.

Ladson: Agent Paul Kinzer said Matt Capps hopes to have a deal done in the next couple of hours.

[JMW IV]

you consider ian desmond a savior, and he has only been good for one minor league season and 21 mlb games.

who realisticlly considers capps to be a savior?

[DPMOmaha]

If Capps does sign here, the Caps should do some sort of promotion.  Capps and the Caps.   Sounds like a high school grunge band...

[I can Throw]

if he rebounds to his pre-2009 level, you have a much improved closer. Is he perfect no, if he was perfect the Pirates would not have released him, and if they had, he wouldn't be talking to the Nats. Two year deal gives us time to develop Storen and build our team up into a contender.

[JMW IV]

and sniper, you are forgetting just how bad our bullpen was last year. signing capps cannot possibly make it worse, and may just make it better. maybe. a risk worth taking, i would say. 1 year with a 2 mutual options or 2 years with a team option.

[JMW IV]

capps last season may be a fluke, it may not. but he is 26. we can afford to find out. it isn't lik he is 35 on the back end of his career. he hasnt even hit his prime yet. if capps were 24, sf would have a million excuses for him.

[PANatsFan]

you consider ian desmond a savior, and he has only been good for one minor league season and 21 mlb games.

who realisticlly considers capps to be a savior?

Desmond's swing won't change. He's a pro hitter.

[sportsfan882]

Desmond's swing won't change. He's a pro hitter.

freak that. he spent 6 years in the minors. he's a bum that is destined for failure.

[PANatsFan]

freak that. he spent 6 years in the minors. he's a bum that is destined for failure.

Does JMad say the say the same about Willingham?

[tomterp]

Folks, what I am missing here? 

That analysis of some of the peripheral stats lead one to conclude that his ERA was mostly due to bad luck, and a reversion to his career norms is likely. 

[tomterp]

freak that. he spent 6 years in the minors. he's a bum that is destined for failure.

While Bernadina is destined for success?  Are these facts in your mind?

[Nathan]

That analysis of some of the peripheral stats lead one to conclude that his ERA was mostly due to bad luck, and a reversion to his career norms is likely. 

Some reading to that effect:

After being connected to trade rumors involving J.J. Hardy earlier this winter, the Pirates have non tendered closer Matt Capps. Given that Pittsburgh assumes that other teams would value Capps, this strikes me as an interesting move. 2009 was rough for Capps, as his ERA rose to a staggering 5.80 after two years of 2.28 and 3.02. He also blew 5 saves in 32 chances. It’s clear that Capps has closer talent. What made him so ineffective in 2009?

The spike in ERA can be easily attributed a rise in home run rate. Capps managed to hold hitters to HR/9 rates of 0.57 and 0.84 in 2007 and 2008, despite fly ball rates in the 45%-50% range. The only way to survive as a flyballing relief pitcher is to post low HR/FB rates, and Capps had certainly succeeded with that prior to 2008. In 2009, however, Capps’s HR/FB ballooned to 13.5%, and even though Capps allowed fewer fly balls, that still resulted in a nearly twice as high HR/9. The end result is a 1.62 rise in FIP.

Capps did see a rise in walk rate, but at 2.82 BB/9, it’s nothing to be worried about. Since it was accompanied by a rise in K rate as well, it is even less concerning. Then, before any team adds Capps, the item of investigation is what caused the home run rate to increase.

Velocity was not an issue for Capps, as his fastball, slider, and changeup all had the fastest velocities of his career. In fact, it is the last pitch which jumps out when examining the data. His 87.1 average changeup is 2.5 MPH faster than that pitch ever has clocked in over his career.

What makes the changeup effective for most pitchers is the difference in speeds between it and the fastball. At 6.5 MPH in 2009, this difference was, unsurprisingly, the lowest of his career. It had a very noticeable effect on the pitch’s effectiveness, as measured by our pitch type values. From 2006-2008, the pitch had ranged in effectiveness from -3.21 to +3.12 runs per 100 pitches. In 2009, it plummeted to -5.35 runs per 100. It appears that Capps’s changeup lost much of its effectiveness after it no longer retained the 8.5 MPH difference that led to the +3.12 run value per 100 pitches in 2009.

There was more to Capps’s ineffectiveness in 2009 than a poor changeup. His .370 BABIP is unsustainable and will regress, and it’s likely that the same applies to his 13.5% HR/FB. Much of regaining his success, however, will lie on returning the changeup to an effective pitch.

Capps pitched far too well in 2007 and 2008 to not be picked up by a team in 2010. Whether or not he can regain his closer effectiveness again will remain to be seen.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/matt-capps-non-tendered

[PANatsFan]

While Bernadina is destined for success?  Are these facts in your mind?

He's joking, I think. He's on the Desmond bandwagon, or one of his personalities was.

[Nathan]

Kinzer tells Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he hopes to have a deal done in the next couple of hours (via Twitter), although the Nationals and Capps are not close to a deal - yet (via Twitter).

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/nationals-among-leading-candidates-for-capps.html

So does that mean that he's pretty much ours and they're just working out the details now?

[tomterp]

He's joking, I think.

Well, it's not SF's style to joke, but I certainly withdraw my comment if his was in jest. 

[Lintyfresh85]

Well, it's not SF's style to joke, but I certainly withdraw my comment if his was in jest.  

Even if he wasn't joking... he'll say he was.

[sportsfan882]

it was a joke intended for jmad

[PANatsFan]

it was a joke intended for jmad

I got it, it was funny.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

TO insert a note of caution on Capps, he had an above average HR/FB in 2006 as well as 2009, so I'm not sure you know which is the real Capps.  Best to figure he's not as bad as 2009, but not as good as 2007-08, either, on HR/FB. It seems he does better overall when he gives up more FBs as a % of his contact than when he has a lower rate. 

[tomterp]

I got it, it was funny.

I guess one had to be an "insider".   

[DPMOmaha]

I guess one had to be an "insider".   

Like this?

[UMDNats]

19:52 PST: Ken Rosenthal Tweets:  Duchscherer leaning toward NL team. Not sure which one!

http://blog.mlbsecrets.com/2009/12/justin-duchscherer-rumors-three-clubs-have-made-offers/

Apparently he's looking for a one-year deal.