Division-Watching (2009)

[tomterp]

Cabrera never pitched under McCatty, but his 5.32 ERA under St. Claire was .80 better than St. Claire's average. 

Cabrera's ERA was much better than he actually pitched.  He'd fall apart after an error, and let tons of runs score that he was never charged with (for ERA purposes) and some of those errors were even his. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I've seen two references to the Crab as having a 5.85 ERA with the Nats. And even that was luckier than he deserved.

[blue911]

I've seen two references to the Crab as having a 5.85 ERA with the Nats. And even that was luckier than he deserved.

Cabrera led the Nationals in unearned runs. It's probably damn hard to field the ball when you're in a trance.

[NatsAddict]

Marlins will travel more in spring training because of Orioles' departure
By JOE CAPOZZI
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, November 03, 2009

JUPITER — The Baltimore Orioles' move out of Fort Lauderdale means the Florida Marlins will spend more time on the road during spring training than they have since moving to Jupiter in 2003.

The Marlins will travel to the state's West Coast for four games and to the Orlando area for two, according to a tentative schedule.

Last year, the Marlins traveled twice to the West Coast - to Fort Myers - and once to Lakeland, while traveling four times to Fort Lauderdale to play the Orioles.

Ideally, spring training "allows you to kind of amp up for the season and not really stress yourself out so much with travel, because you're going to have plenty of travel during the season," pitcher Burke Badenhop said. "Now, you're taking about getting on a bus at 6:45 in the morning to drive three hours and play."

Marlins' travel to the Treasure Coast and Space Coast is unaffected.

The Marlins' co-tenants at Roger Dean Stadium, the St. Louis Cardinals, have two games on the West Coast (both in Fort Myers) and one each in Orlando and Kissimmee. Last year, the Cardinals made four trips to the West Coast.

The Orioles will open 2010 in Sarasota, replacing the Cincinnati Reds, who are moving to Goodyear, Ariz. That leaves 15 teams in Florida and 15 in Arizona.

The Marlins play their first exhibition game March 3 in Jupiter against the University of Miami. The Marlins host Washington on March 4 in their Grapefruit League opener.

The Cardinals open their Grapefruit League schedule in Port St. Lucie on March 4 against the New York Mets and play their first game at Roger Dean Stadium on March 5 against the Mets.

The Boston Red Sox will visit Jupiter twice - March 9 against the Marlins and March 12 against the Cardinals.

Marlins will travel more in spring training because of Orioles' departure

The horror!  The Fish will have to double their trips to Florida's west coast from 2 to 4. Ft. Myers is a full 90 miles away from Jupiter, about double the distance to Ft. Lauderdale.  And then again double trips to Lakeland from 1 to 2.  Round trip wise, that's about 760 more miles of travel than last year.

To recover these additional expense, Loria will have to trade Hanley and JJ.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

The Orioles are moving to Sarasota?

Say hi to Randy Savage for me.

[The Chief]

Say hi to Randy Savage for me.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Calling NatsAddict.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10327310/Source:-Red-Sox-acquire-Hermida-from-Marlins

Marlins get back a lefty reliever, Hunter Jones.  Fringy stuff, not especially effective against lefties during his call ups.  Marginal major leaguer.

[DPMOmaha]

I think you could see a lot of moves like this rather than a team cutting a guy loose by not offering him arbitration, find some one willing to deal and at least get something back.  The teams willing to pay the arbitration like Boston and New York or LA could be the benificiaries.  We need to get in the game on these.

[blue911]

I think you could see a lot of moves like this rather than a team cutting a guy loose by not offering him arbitration, find some one willing to deal and at least get something back.  The teams willing to pay the arbitration like Boston and New York or LA could be the benificiaries.  We need to get in the game on these.

I think the Dodgers are going to pull back this off season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think the Dodgers are going to pull back this off season.

You think Frank McCourt will be soaked in his divorce?

I think the Sun generally rises in the East.  We can both be right.

[NatsAddict]

Calling NatsAddict.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10327310/Source:-Red-Sox-acquire-Hermida-from-Marlins

Marlins get back a lefty reliever, Hunter Jones.  Fringy stuff, not especially effective against lefties during his call ups.  Marginal major leaguer.

*doing the happy dance*

It's amazing that the Fish got anything for that idiot.  The average IQ of the 24 remaing players just rose 4.17%.  Just another 1st round bust by Beinfest - that's his trademark.

[NatsAddict]

Marlins are planning on CUTTING payroll next year:

The Marlins' payroll in 2010 is expected to be at or slightly less than the $36 million it was in 2009.

MLB.com

Following the Selig plan - get a new stadium financed by taxes, and then immediately breach the contract and shed payroll.  Revenue sharing needs to go. Thanks a lot, Comrade Selig.

[houston-nat]

Marlins are planning on CUTTING payroll next year:
MLB.com

Following the Selig plan - get a new stadium financed by taxes, and then immediately breach the contract and shed payroll.  Revenue sharing needs to go. Thanks a lot, Comrade Selig.

If y'all need help paying for Josh Johnson's contract, contact Mike Rizzo to set up a plan

In all seriousness, it is truly depressing what is happening to that franchise - day after day. Its spiral is simply endless.

[blue911]

You think Frank McCourt will be soaked in his divorce?

I think the Sun generally rises in the East.  We can both be right.

The last I read the McCourts had a net worth of $1.1B, with the LA Dodgers being 70% of the total. I don't see how either of the McCourts could afford to buy the other out.

[NatsAddict]

On the bright side, having a cheap-ass owner who prefers guys not even arby eligible so that he can have a payroll as close as possible to league minimum * 25, the Fish don't have many guys eligible to declare FA:

1B Nick Johnson
RP Kiki Calero
RP Brendan Donnelly

Also, utlity guy Ross Gload, who along with Wes Helms became the best pinch-hit tandem in MLB history last year, has a $2.6 million club option that is reportedly not going to be exercised.

Gload will probably be missed the most, with Calero 2nd, Donnelly 3rd, and Nick 4th.

Gload put up a .872 OPS in 80 PH ABs last year, but Beinfest is wanting to "unleash" his boy, Alfredo Amezaga, and his .625 OPS  in his place at a higher price next year.  His logic is that Amezaga is a switch hitter, and while he only has .510 OPS vs LHP, he has a .678 vs RHP.   Gload, a lefty, has a .702 OPS vs LHP.

So, in short, Beinfest is going to let go of a trained attack Doberman and replace him with the friggin' Taco Ball Chihuahua.  I bet McCatty is trembling with fear, or well, maybe he will be once he clears the tears of laughter from his eyes.

[NatsAddict]

From Twitter:

Marlins MLB.com beat writer Joe Frisaro on the NY Yankees parade:

parade coverage http://bit.ly/4m6MF3

Joe Frisaro (JoeFrisaro) on Twitter

Palm Beach Post Writer Joe Capozzi's response:

@JoeFrisaro U don't cover the Jaynkees ... Wait & file when the Marlins have their world series parade...14 minutes ago from web in reply to JoeFrisaro

joe capozzi (joecapMARLINS) on Twitter


I really like Joe Capozzi

[PANatsFan]

What is with Beinfest and Amezaga - the reason they gave for firing Girardi was misusing Amezaga, or something like that.

[NatsAddict]

Got a shout out from The Batting Stance Guy:

Sweet. Just heard from most of Marlins fanbase & the 6 of them said ROY Coghlan spells his name like so. #MLB 6 minutes ago from Twitterrific

Batting Stance Guy (BattingStanceG) on Twitter

[tomterp]

I saw a rumor on BP that the Marlins want to sign Flop to replace Uggla.

[GburgNatsFan]

Seriously?

I saw a rumor on BP that the Marlins want to sign Flop to replace Uggla.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

I saw a rumor on BP that the Marlins want to sign Flop to replace Uggla.

I can see several posters going into cardiac arrest over that because:

a.) He is FLop.
b.) He is on the Marlins.
c.) Since he would be on the Marlins, that would most likely mean he would own the Nats.

[NatsAddict]

I saw a rumor on BP that the Marlins want to sign Flop to replace Uggla.

Naaah.  He makes more than league minimum, and the Fish already announced no FAs and a payroll cut.

Sounds like Bonifacio at 2B, with Coghlan coming in as a backup should when Bonifacio fails, with either John Raynor or Scott Cousins getting the call-up to LF (my bet is on Cousins).

[tomterp]

So here's the article, and it's nothing more than a wild ass bunch of guesses, but it is useful in that it ranks FA's by WARP1.

Weekend Update
by John Perrotto

It is generally accepted that Matt Holliday will command the largest contract of any player on this year’s free-agent market. Holliday is coming off a fantastic finish to the 2009 season. He hit .353/.419/.604 in 270 plate appearances with the Cardinals to help them win the National League Central championship after he was acquired from the Athletics in a late-July trade. The left fielder is also represented by Scott Boras, and no agent does a better job of consistently getting top dollar for his clients, even at a time when clubs insist they are going to spend less because of declining attendance and a soft economy.

But is Holliday really the most valuable player on the market? If you use WARP1, a BP metric that measures the overall value of a player, and look at only at this past season, then the answer he is not quite the best. The honor goes to Chone Figgins. He contributed a 6.3 WARP1 to the American League West champion Angels this year as their third baseman and leadoff hitter. That was one-tenth of a percentage point better than Holliday’s total tally 6.2, as he managed just 2.8 WARP1 with the Athletics in 400 plate appearances before being traded back to the NL.

While Holliday held a .311-.292 edge in EqA, Figgins had a substantial 36-13 margin in Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAP). Figgins also held a 3.9 point advantage over Holliday's -0.6 in Equivalent Base Running Runs (EqBRR), though that doesn't even work out to half of a win's worth of difference.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top 20 free agents as ranked by their 2009 WARP1.  I’ll also take a stab at predicting where they will end up, which is almost always an exercise in futility because of all the factors that can influence the market. Keep in mind that teams can begin making offers Friday.

Chone Figgins (6.3): The speculation is that Figgins’ asking price is $50 million for five years, which is a lot during a time when every franchise, including the Yankees, profess to be watching the bottom line. The Angels already signed Bobby Abreu to a two-year, $19 million deal before he could reach the market. They will end up re-signing Figgins, too, though not at five years and $50 million.

Matt Holliday (6.2): The two New York teams seem to be the logical destinations, as they have a need for a power-hitting outfielder. Whether the Yankees or Mets are going to make a play for Holliday, though, seems to depend on who you talk to. If owner Fred Wilpon really didn’t lose $700 million in the Bernie Madoff scandal, then I believe the Mets blow everyone out of the water in an attempt to stay relevant on the New York baseball scene.

Orlando Hudson (6.0): Well, we can safely assume Dodgers manager Joe Torre doesn’t know what WARP1 is, since he benched the O-Dog in the postseason in favor of Ronnie Belliard. Hudson stayed on the market for a long time last winter, and he will probably suffer the same fate this time, as the big-money clubs don’t have vacancies at second base. The Reds would be a great fit if they would be willing to be creative and move Brandon Phillips back to his original position of shortstop. That won’t happen, though, so Hudson will wind up back with the Diamondbacks for less than what he is worth.

Marco Scutaro (5.9): This guy has to feel like he’s holding the winning Powerball ticket. after being a fringe player for so many years, Scutaro had a career year as the Blue Jays’ shortstop in 2009. The Red Sox got burned by signing Julio Lugo to a four-year, $32 million contract as a free agent and won’t make that mistake with Scutaro. However, they will sign him for the short term in a market when contracts longer than two years will be rare.

Miguel Tejada (5.7): This ranking surprises me, because Tejada’s career has seemed to be teetering on the edge of a cliff for the last few years. However, moving to third base might enable Tejada to squeeze out a few more years. The Phillies need a third baseman, and it worked out well last winter when they signed an older free agent in Raul Ibañez, even though they were criticized by many analysts for the move.

Jason Marquis (4.9): You can certainly quibble with Marquis being the best free-agent starting pitcher available, but that’s what the numbers say under the criteria we’re using here (with a counting stat). Marquis grew up on Long Island, and he would be attractive to both New York teams. A flip of the coin says he winds up with the Yankees.

Mike Cameron ( 4.8 ): Let’s make another homecoming prediction. Cameron is from Georgia, and the Braves need an outfielder. They could easily make room for Cameron by shifting center fielder Nate McLouth to one of the corner spots.

Felipe Lopez ( 4.8 ): He gets knocked a lot for his fielding, but he totaled 19 FRAP at second base this past season, split between the Diamondbacks and Brewers. He would be much more valuable if he could still play shortstop; instead, he will suffer the same fate as Hudson on the free-agent market and wind up signing late with the Marlins on a cut-rate contract to replace Dan Uggla, who will be traded.

Randy Wolf (4.5): He wants to re-sign with his hometown Dodgers and is willing to take a discount. Thus, the two sides will work out a deal, as reports of GM Ned Colletti having his hands tied financially because of the McCourt divorce situation are exaggerated.

Jason Bay (4.4): Well, so much for agent Joe Urbon’s claim that his client is a better all-round player than Holliday. If the Red Sox did indeed offer Bay four years and $60 million and he turned it down, as has been reported, then it is a clear sign that he does not want to stay in Boston. If he wants out from under the microscope, then the perfect destination choice would be the Mariners, as he makes Seattle his off-season home.

Johnny Damon (4.4): Boras is dead set on Damon getting another contract similar to the four-year, $52 million deal with the Yankees that just expired. It would be shocking if Boras can pull that one off. Damon will wind up back with the Yankees, but on a two-year deal at most.

Adam LaRoche (4.0): LaRoche returned to his comfort zone when the Braves acquired him from the Red Sox at the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline. Third baseman Chipper Jones and LaRoche are hunting buddies. Chipper is pushing hard for LaRoche’s return. Braves management usually listens to Chipper.

Doug Davis (3.6): He isn’t the type of pitcher who excites anyone, but Davis is a lefty and dependable to start every fifth day. The Mets could certainly use someone like him, especially since they probably won’t have the money to spend too big on a starter if they blow the budget on Holliday.

Jon Garland (3.5): Another solid, if unspectacular, starting pitcher who can help someone at the back end of the rotation. A Southern California guy, he would be a good fit for the Angels, especially since it is doubtful they will be able to retain their staff ace...

John Lackey (3.5): Speaking of Lackey, there has been plenty of speculation that he will command a contract in excess of $100 million. However, his recent WARP1 trend says someone is going to be very sorry if they make that kind of investment in a pitcher who is 31 and becoming injury prone. Since posting a career-best 7.1 WARP1 in 2007, he has had a combined 6.4 in the past two seasons. All the talk surrounding the Dodgers after losing to the Phillies in the National League Championship Series for the second season in a row is that they needed an ace in their starting rotation. Frank McCourt is as sensitive to public perception as any owner, and he will throw plenty big money at Lackey to entice him to stay in SoCal.

Rafael Soriano (3.5): He had a good year for the Braves while sharing the closing duties with Mike Gonzalez, but the Braves have decided to move on. Soriano would be a really good fit for the Tigers as an upgrade over closer Fernando Rodney, who is also a free agent, but the Tigers aren’t in spending mode. Thus, in a bit of a surprise, I believe Soriano will wind up with the Rays, who need a good back-end reliever.

Joel Pineiro (3.4): The Astros are supposed to be getting younger, but owner Drayton McLane famously likes to say he never uses the word "rebuilding." They need a starting pitcher to slot behind Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, and Pineiro would fit nicely.

Nick Johnson (3.3): The Giants need power and on-base percentage. Johnson provides both and would be an upgrade at first base over Ryan Garko. Furthermore, Johnson is a Northern California guy who grew up in Sacramento. It all makes too much sense not to happen.

Placido Polanco (3.3): Like Hudson and Lopez, Polanco will be the victim of a weak market for second basemen. Thus, he will wind up re-signing with the Tigers on a one-year contract, right before the start of spring training.

Jarrod Washburn (3.3): His value plummeted after the Tigers acquired him from the Mariners in a trade at the July 31 non-waiver deadline. He will still have his suitors, and the Brewers and the NL would be a nice match for a left-hander who has spent his entire career in the AL and was born, raised, and still lives in Wisconsin.

[PatsNats28]

Johnson provides power

[tomterp]

Johnson provides power

He lost power almost certainly due to the wrist injury.  Will he get it back, or at least some of it?  With a winter to focus on conditioning and rehab, I would bet that his power goes up a notch this year, though not back to what it was before.