Plan "B"

[Nat of the Living Dead]

Dave Sheinin says the Rays deal w/ Burrell is a positive for the Nats in regards to the Dunn Derby.  As usual, can't say I disagree with him.

If it is true the Cubs and Dodgers have a hard on for Dunn, you can start your whining now because he isn't coming to DC. He is perhaps in the last "prime year" of his life and he isn't going to want to waste time on a club two, three, five, ten years away from winning. He'll want it now and no amount of money is going to convince him otherwise.

I said it before, I'll say it again: Thanks to Boras and the Teixeira Situation, it is the "in thing" to avoid the Nationals because there is this myth they truly don't want to improve. Money doesn't matter. It's the winning, especially for these getting past their prime FAs.

[tomterp]

Other than Kearns, can we really say they're going to do that this season?  I can't possibly see them playing WMP at all.  If Kearns starts and Milledge or Dukes is benched, I still have to think WMP is a fifth OFer at best ont his roster unless he has an unbelievable Spring Training.

Both Kearns and WMP had injury issues last season, and WMP's turned out to be quite significant.

I think both of these guys are going to rebound significantly, though I don't think Kearns will ever hit the "superstar" level Blob Lodson thinks the club expects.  But I think Kearns can hit 18-22 HR and 80 RBI will playing a much better than average RF, and that would be enough to keep him on the field.

Good thing about WMP is that if he stinks it up in ST, he can be cut for the loss of the $2m, but if he rebounds to late 2007 production we might really have that big bat in the lineup.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

this is semi-related, but shawn hill was on some radio show that was being simulcasted on MASN yesterday. he basically said dr. andrews said his arm is 100% and fully recovered. shawn himself said he thought the team will be a lot better this season, if they stay healthy.

he said that he has no pressure like the last couple years in ST. he's felt like he's needed to step up and stay healthy and be the ace and that messed some stuff up with him..forcing too much on the mound, trying to be too perfect. he knows that it's now or never but he also knows that the team is planning on him not being healthy, so he feels like he has a chance to relax and just pitch like he's capable of. hopefully he takes adavantage, we could use a guy like hill on our rotation (well, the old hill)

I am smelling something...I can't place my finger on it, but it smells like...like...like...

[HalfSmokes]

Both Kearns and WMP had injury issues last season, and WMP's turned out to be quite significant.

I think both of these guys are going to rebound significantly, though I don't think Kearns will ever hit the "superstar" level Blob Lodson thinks the club expects.  But I think Kearns can hit 18-22 HR and 80 RBI will playing a much better than average RF, and that would be enough to keep him on the field.

Good thing about WMP is that if he stinks it up in ST, he can be cut for the loss of the $2m, but if he rebounds to late 2007 production we might really have that big bat in the lineup.

The problem is you're taking away abs from a guy who could be improving to give them to a guy who could be ok

[tomterp]

The problem is you're taking away abs from a guy who could be improving to give them to a guy who could be ok

I presume you are referring to Kearns, okay, that's a fair comment.  But I don't see that Milledge has any more upside than Kearns if you assume 20/80 as a reasonable plateau.  WMP still has untapped upside in my view, and of course I agree wholeheartedly that Dukes must be in the lineup, no matter where on the field.

There's a lot of angst over the outfield logjam at present, but these things have a way of working themselves out via injuries and trades.  There's still a lot of time to go, I am not sweating it at all.  From the hordes of applicants we are sure to find a few quality performers.

[PANatsFan]

They cut a number of guys during last season that cost money - Mackowiak and Estrada for two.

After the trading deadline - and after LoDuca was a hell of a guy and played 1B and LF for crying out loud

[HalfSmokes]

I presume you are referring to Kearns, okay, that's a fair comment.  But I don't see that Milledge has any more upside than Kearns if you assume 20/80 as a reasonable plateau.  WMP still has untapped upside in my view, and of course I agree wholeheartedly that Dukes must be in the lineup, no matter where on the field.

There's a lot of angst over the outfield logjam at present, but these things have a way of working themselves out via injuries and trades.  There's still a lot of time to go, I am not sweating it at all.  From the hordes of applicants we are sure to find a few quality performers.

I think we can expect Milledge to perform better than last year actually. Last year was his first year as a major leaguers- players tend to improve over the course of their careers. That and Kearns will be gone after next year so I could really care less about giving him at bats.

[ronnynat]

There's a lot of angst over the outfield logjam at present, but these things have a way of working themselves out via injuries and trades.  There's still a lot of time to go, I am not sweating it at all.  From the hordes of applicants we are sure to find a few quality performers.

I'm way more concerned about the rotation. I consider Kearns and WMP getting playing time to be a win-win. If they suck, we can cut them (since their in the final year of their contracts) and give whoever is ready in the minors a roster spot. If they do well, their value goes up and we can trade them.

[MrMadison]

from Sheinin:

Tuesday Triple Play

1. So there you have it: a new market standard has been established for the remaining plethora of hulking, bad-glove, big-bat corner types in this recession-wary, post-New Year's, post-Yankees-spending-spree marketplace. And you have to conclude it looks good for teams like the Nationals. If Pat Burrell is only worth $16 million over the next couple of years, Adam Dunn, to name the most prominent example of the type, ain't gonna get that monster deal he's looking for. There must have been some high-fiving going on over in the executive offices at Nationals Park after the Burrell deal went down. It's no secret the Nats are focused on Dunn these days, and now they must be thinking they can get him at closer to their price than his.

2. How dumb must the Phillies be feeling now? Back in the pre-market-crash days, they gave three years and $31.5 million (roughly double Burrell's money) to Raul Ibanez, who is an older (by four years) version of Burrell, and who also hits from the wrong side (the heavily left-handed Phillies needed a right-handed bat, like Burrell's, not a left-handed one, like Ibanez) and is quite possibly the only left fielder in baseball who is a worse defensive player than Burrell. To top it off, the Ibanez signing cost the Phillies their No. 1 draft pick, and they get no compensation for losing Burrell, to whom they did not offer arbitration. Yikes.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/baseball-insider/

[tomterp]

If they do well, their value goes up and we can trade them.

Amen.  I hope every one of our outfielders kicks total ass in ST and gives Jimbo some assets he can deal for long term building blocks.

[blue911]

Both Kearns and WMP had injury issues last season, and WMP's turned out to be quite significant.

I think both of these guys are going to rebound significantly, though I don't think Kearns will ever hit the "superstar" level Blob Lodson thinks the club expects.  But I think Kearns can hit 18-22 HR and 80 RBI will playing a much better than average RF, and that would be enough to keep him on the field.

Good thing about WMP is that if he stinks it up in ST, he can be cut for the loss of the $2m, but if he rebounds to late 2007 production we might really have that big bat in the lineup.

Both Kearns and Pena should have to earn their way onto the squad. In both cases their production has been below acceptable for corner outfielders for two seasons. Injuries may have been a factor in 2008 but neither were injured in 2007. We have nine outfielders on our roster and only five spots and Harris,Willingham, Milledge and Dukes take up four of those. At this point, Kearns & Pena have to be considered a fifth outfieder. And fifth outfielders should have to earn their way onto the team.

[MrMadison]

Both Kearns and Pena should have to earn their way onto the squad. In both cases their production has been below acceptable for corner outfielders for two seasons. Injuries may have been a factor in 2008 but neither were injured in 2007. We have nine outfielders on our roster and only five spots and Harris,Willingham, Milledge and Dukes take up four of those. At this point, Kearns & Pena have to be considered a fifth outfieder. And fifth outfielders should have to earn their way onto the team.

yep.

[natsfan4evr]

Amen.  I hope every one of our outfielders kicks total ass in ST and gives Jimbo some assets he can deal for long term building blocks.

If we get Hudson and Anderson Hernandez continues to tear it up, can we get good trade value for him? 

[PANatsFan]

from Sheinin:
 

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/baseball-insider/

Ladies and Gentleman, Your World Champion (Dunce) Phillies!

[tomterp]

from Sheinin:
 
How dumb must the Phillies be feeling now? Back in the pre-market-crash days, they gave three years and $31.5 million (roughly double Burrell's money) to Raul Ibanez, who is an older (by four years) version of Burrell, and who also hits from the wrong side (the heavily left-handed Phillies needed a right-handed bat, like Burrell's, not a left-handed one, like Ibanez) and is quite possibly the only left fielder in baseball who is a worse defensive player than Burrell. To top it off, the Ibanez signing cost the Phillies their No. 1 draft pick, and they get no compensation for losing Burrell, to whom they did not offer arbitration. Yikes.

I agree with these comments on Ibanez.  He was no upgrade at all, he cost way too much, and the draft pick loss makes them look stupid.  Here are some similar, but more supported comments by BP's Joe Sheehan on the signing.   

Over-Correcting and Over-Spending
by Joe Sheehan

Pat Burrell at one year and $16 million, or Raul Ibanez for three years and $30 million? I'm pretty sure that there's a right answer to this question, and just as sure that the Phillies didn't land on it.

I'd mentioned in one of the recent chat sessions that there's a perceptions gap between Ibanez and some of the other corner outfielders on the market. Largely because of size and speed, or lack thereof, guys like Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn have terrible defensive reputations. Neither is a good defensive outfielder; Burrell is actually bad. However, as with Barry Bonds, the size of this problem is overstated in part because the player's defense isn't being evaluated so much as judged—how he looks as opposed to what he does—and because a left fielder's defense isn't quite as important to his value as the rest of his game.

The thing is, Ibanez can't play the outfield. He's been one of the worst left fielders in the game the last two years, and he's one of the few options whose glove work has been comparable to Burrell's. Per the Plus/Minus system developed by John Dewan:


Year    Burrell   Ibanez
2006      -26       +2
2007      -27      -25
2008      -20      -18
Total     -73      -41

According to Dewan, these are the two worst defensive left fielders in baseball over the last two seasons, with Ibanez being just slightly better than the guy he's now replacing. However, because Ibanez doesn't look as awkward as Burrell does, he gets a pass for his defense. Let's be clear about this: the Phillies didn't get any better with this deal. They got an outfielder who is just as poor a glove man as the guy he's replacing, likely a worse hitter, somewhat older, and at a cost of two additional seasons and maybe $14 million. They had an option two weeks ago to offer Pat Burrell arbitration, a decision that could have returned a good player on a one-year contract in the $16 million range, potentially less. Now, they have spent more money without making themselves better.

Last year, the two were virtually identical:


Guy       Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   EqA  VORP
Burrell    31  .250  .367  .507  .295  34.8
Ibanez     36  .293  .358  .479  .295  38.5

Check the number in the left-hand column. That five-year age difference is very significant, as one player is in his late prime and could be had for a commitment to just his age-32 season. The other is out of his prime, and while he's aged well as a hitter, he's now signed from 36 through 38. Given how close the players' performances have been, and the marginal difference between the two in 2009 of maybe $6 million, it's incomprehensible that the Phillies would decline to offer Burrell arbitration and then sign the same player, five years older, for more years and money.

If you want another reason to hate the deal, consider that Ibanez is a left-handed batter who will clearly be asked to bat second, fifth, or sixth. The Phillies already set up their opponents by batting Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back-to-back. A third left-handed batter in the middle of the order will make the target for lefty specialists that much bigger. Whether you agree with my assessment of Howard or you don't, you have to concede that making it easy for managers to run the Scott Schoeneweises of the world at him from the sixth inning on is a bad idea. It's not about whether Howard is a threat against lefties, but about how effective those pitchers tend to be at their jobs. If Ibanez and Burrell are identical, and they seem to be at the plate, the Phillies are better served by having the right-handed batter.

The Phillies simply made a bad play. Burrell probably would not have accepted arbitration, eventually yielding two draft picks in exchange, and even had he accepted, that would have been a better outcome than signing Ibanez will be. Ibanez is the same player, but because of his age, more likely to decline in the short term, and because he bats left-handed, he doesn't fit the Phillies' lineup very well. The perceived defensive gap between the two players is an illusion; Ibanez is just as bad as Burrell in the pasture.

The deal is an excellent one for Ibanez, who was probably the least attractive of a group of good-hit, no-field outfielders currently finding the market a bit cold. Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Burrell, and Bobby Abreu are all free agents as the Christmas music gets a little bit louder, and all signs point to them being out in the cold a bit longer. Teams are finding other ways to fill their corners, mostly through trades, rather than to commit to flawed players for multiple seasons at eight-figure salaries. I'm more convinced than ever that at least one of these guys is going to be this year's Kyle Lohse, still available after Presidents Day for a fraction of the cost of his production, and someone who will go on to be a great signing.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Joe by clicking here or click here to see Joe's other articles.

[ronnynat]

Injuries may have been a factor in 2008 but neither were injured in 2007.

WMP did pretty well for us in '07.

We have nine outfielders on our roster and only five spots and Harris,Willingham, Milledge and Dukes take up four of those.

Harris could also be considered a backup infielder.

[xposbrad]

If Burrell signed for 2 years/18mill, I can't believe we didn't go after him. What does that make Dunn worth? 10m? Either way, that 2 year deal would have been perfect for us, it would have been a nice stop gap until something better comes up on the market. Let's just hope we can get Dunn for 2-3 years now @ max 10m/yr. I would have taken Bradley/Burrell over Dunn personally, I don't think his trade value is all that high, considering Arizona didn't really give up much to get him at the trade deadline. Are there even any other teams after Dunn right now aside from us? I don't think any NL team would be, and I don't even think the Angels/Rangers care for Dunn and the A's are after Giambi and the dbacks don't seem to be too interested. I wouldn't be surprised if we could get a steal here if Bowden plays his cards right on this contract just like the Rays did for Burrell. 2 years, 19M , do it Bowden.

Burrell 2008:

.250/.367/.507 OPS .874

Dunn 2008:

.236/.386/.513 OPS .899

[ronnynat]

If Burrell signed for 2 years/18mill, I can't believe we didn't go after him. What does that make Dunn worth? 10m? Either way, that 2 year deal would have been perfect for us, it would have been a nice stop gap until something better comes up on the market. Let's just hope we can get Dunn for 2-3 years now @ max 10m/yr. I would have taken Bradley/Burrell over Dunn personally, I don't think his trade value is all that high, considering Arizona didn't really give up much to get him at the trade deadline. Are there even any other teams after Dunn right now aside from us? I don't think any NL team would be, and I don't even think the Angels/Rangers care for Dunn and the A's are after Giambi and the dbacks don't seem to be too interested. I wouldn't be surprised if we could get a steal here if Bowden plays his cards right on this contract just like the Rays did for Burrell. 2 years, 20M , do it Bowden.

I think the Rays' cards are better than ours. I'm pretty sure Burrell just wanted to play for the Rays/in Florida. We're going to have to pay Dunn more unless he REALLY wants to play here.

[xposbrad]

Ya Phils screwed up big time. I don't know what they were thinking. Did they even offer a contract to Burrell?

[The Chief]

If it is true the Cubs and Dodgers have a hard on for Dunn, you can start your whining now because he isn't coming to DC. He is perhaps in the last "prime year" of his life and he isn't going to want to waste time on a club two, three, five, ten years away from winning. He'll want it now and no amount of money is going to convince him otherwise.

I said it before, I'll say it again: Thanks to Boras and the Teixeira Situation, it is the "in thing" to avoid the Nationals because there is this myth they truly don't want to improve. Money doesn't matter. It's the winning, especially for these getting past their prime FAs.

I really hope this isn't true, but it sounds just crappy enough to be.

I think the Rays' cards are better than ours. I'm pretty sure Burrell just wanted to play for the Rays/in Florida. We're going to have to pay Dunn more unless he REALLY wants to play here.

Why do you think we're keeping Kearns around?

[UMDNats]

I am smelling something...I can't place my finger on it, but it smells like...like...like...

just relaying what he said. i think he'd be a good addition to the rotation

[tomterp]

Both Kearns and Pena should have to earn their way onto the squad. In both cases their production has been below acceptable for corner outfielders for two seasons. Injuries may have been a factor in 2008 but neither were injured in 2007.

Wily Mo Pena 2007 (Nats only)  .293  .352  .504

This sort of performance would be tops among our outfielders.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

I really hope this isn't true, but it sounds just crappy enough to be.

Why do you think we're keeping Kearns around?

Pretend your not a Nats fan, but you are a hot commodity on the FA Market. Your whole life has been devoted to this game and the ultimate dream: winning the WS or being put into position to. You already have more money than any cop, teacher, firefighter, or average joe will ever see in his life, so your not worried about your finances.

Does Washington, at this point in time, seem like the most exciting option or destination to you?

Dunn knows he is running out of time. He isn't there yet, but the corridor is narrowing down for him. He is going to want to at least be in the playoffs. His friend, Austin Kearns, isn't close to the playoffs.

[xposbrad]

I really hope this isn't true, but it sounds just crappy enough to be.

Why do you think we're keeping Kearns around?

Cubs are not going after Dunn, and the Dodgers will sign Manny. The Cubs just balanced their payroll to go after Bradley, and there's a slight chance they traded away DeRosa to trade for Peavy. The only team after Dunn right now is us, and maybe a team like the Blue Jays or something, but they are not offering big money, 0 chance.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

just relaying what he said. i think he'd be a good addition to the rotation

Don't worry, I am not shooting the messenger.

Yeah, we'll see if he can even make it to the mound to be in the rotation without spiking himself on a blade of grass or damaging his arm by picking up a water bottle.