Plan "B"

[Minty Fresh]

Hey we need to keep this going.  We have 127 more pages to catch the "Tex and the Nats" thread.

[tomterp]

Young didn't play a lot in the second half, Boone did.

Boone wasn't even on the roster until 2008. 

[HalfSmokes]

SO IS MANNY RAMIREZ.

And Dunn has had far more opportunities than anyone else on our roster (except maybe Belliard, Guzman and Kearns).  Stands to reason his walks would be higher if he's had more plate appearances.

That is absurd- why doesn't every guy with equivelent major league experience have the same walk rate

[MrMadison]

you can write off the HR as an overratted, flashy thing, but power is not overrated at all.

If you add his Doubles and HRs over the past 5 years, Dunn has 349 of them.

I don't think there is a single player on our team right now outside of maybe Dukes and Zimmerman, that are even CAPABLE of sniffing that kind of power in 5 seasons.

Zimmerman has 148 in 3 full seasons, so far.

there's nothing overrated about that.

(is there an official stat for HR+Doubles anyway?)

[MrMadison]

just for reference, the last player we had with Dunn's kind of power was Soriano.

his HR+Doubles over the last 5 years is 357. 87 of which came in the season he was with Washington.

Manny = 350

Tex = 371

[Minty Fresh]

That is absurd- why doesn't every guy with equivelent major league experience have the same walk rate

Dunn  1 BB : 5.85 PA
Dukes  1 BB : 6.51 PA
Johnson:  1 BB : 6.31 PA

Pretty comparable. 

[Minty Fresh]

just for reference, the last player we had with Dunn's kind of power was Soriano.

his HR+Doubles over the last 5 years is 357. 87 of which came in the season he was with Washington.

Manny = 350

Tex = 371

But with Manny v. Dunn, Manny doesn't have the type of drop off v. righties that Dunn has v. lefties.  It's not even close.

[HalfSmokes]

Dunn  1 BB : 5.85 PA
Dukes  1 BB : 6.51 PA
Johnson:  1 BB : 6.31 PA

Pretty comparable. 

There is a 10% gap between Dunn and Duke, does that mean Dunn has an average 'comparable' to a .260 hitter (10% variance in his avegare) and we're all ok with his average then?

[natsfan4evr]

But with Manny v. Dunn, Manny doesn't have the type of drop off v. righties that Dunn has v. lefties.  It's not even close.

Dunn has a lot of patience, something we desperately need.
Dunn can easily see 6 or 7 pitches in an AB. So many times last season, we were swinging at the first pitch. Dunn waits until he gets his pitch to hit. Unfortunately, sometimes he never finds it and strikes out. Other times, he draws a walk.

I think Dunn is a good player, but nothing amazing. I do think if Nick Johnson wasn't made of glass, he wouldn't be necessary; but we need someone like Dunn on the team.

Manny will be unhappy and will ruin the clubhouse atmosphere. Do we really need a prima donna here?

[Minty Fresh]

There is a 10% gap between Dunn and Duke, does that mean Dunn has an average 'comparable' to a .260 hitter (10% variance in his avegare) and we're all ok with his average then?

I'm fine with a .260 hitter as long as he's making up for it in other areas - and not just offensively.  A BONAFIDE 1B with a .260 average/40/120 is certainly desirable but Dunn doesn't play 1B worth a crap.  He'd need to put up Bonds-like numbers to offset his putrid defense.

[MrMadison]

But with Manny v. Dunn, Manny doesn't have the type of drop off v. righties that Dunn has v. lefties.  It's not even close.

my stats were more a response to the "HRs are overrated" thing, and less a comparison between Dunn and Manny.

you say HRs are overrated, so I added doubles to them.  I think it makes for a better statistical view of flat-out mashin' power.

[spidernat]

but has 30 errors at 1B and taxing our pitching staff. 

Isn't that exaggerating a bit? Ryan Howard has 50 errors in over 3.5 seasons, Prince Fielder has 42 in just over 3 seasons. To assume Dunn would have 30 in one season is a bit much if you ask me. Dunn has 15 errors in 127 games at 1B or about 1 every 8.5 games. That would extrapolate () to about 18 or 19 if he played every game at 1B for an entire season. Not great but a far cry from 30. Nick Johnson had 15 in 147 games in 2007. Albert Pujols had 10 and 14 respectively his first two full seasons at 1B. Also, like tomterp said, he could actually improve slightly.

[MrMadison]

I think Dunn is a good player, but nothing amazing. I do think if Nick Johnson wasn't made of glass, he wouldn't be necessary; but we need someone like Dunn on the team.

this is the stance I am taking on this as well.

[cmdterps44]

I'm all for Manny was well, i just think he might be trouble here, if he isn't, its a no brainer.

[sportsfan882]

This is beginning to feel like the Tex situation to me. I doubt we'll get any of these players that everyone is clamoring for. Another ho-hum offseason for the Nats. 

[MrMadison]

Zimmerman has 148 in 3 full seasons, so far.

just to add on to this...

Zimmerman hits a crap-ton of doubles.  but at the same time, he played at RFK for two seasons, it is reasonable to think that a good portion of the crap-ton of doubles he hits are HRs in Nats Park.

[natsfan4evr]

just to add on to this...

Zimmerman hits a crap-ton of doubles.  but at the same time, he played at RFK for two seasons, it is reasonable to think that a good portion of the crap-ton of doubles he hits are HRs in Nats Park.

That is why OPS is so important

Zimmerman had a .775 last season
Dukes had a .864
Dunn had a .899, and .940 the season before
Manny had a 1.031

Obviously, Manny is just a monster. Dunn though would leap into the front of the pack on our team.
I don't understand why everyone would rather pray for Nick or pray that Rinehart or someone else can fill in. Dunn would improve the offense a ton.

[spidernat]

This is beginning to feel like the Tex situation to me. I doubt we'll get any of these players that everyone is clamoring for. Another ho-hum offseason for the Nats. 

What do you mean ho hum? With the signings of Castillo, Sosa, Patterson, Chacin, Cabrera, Olsen and Willingham, we have plenty to get excited about and pretend we had another great off season. 

Let's bring back Vindicator and revive the vindication thread. 

[natsfan4evr]

This is beginning to feel like the Tex situation to me. I doubt we'll get any of these players that everyone is clamoring for. Another ho-hum offseason for the Nats. 

At least we are trying. We can't force them to play for us. The fact that the Lerners are willing to pay though, should be a good sign to you.

[blue911]

What do you mean ho hum? With the signings of Castillo, Sosa, Patterson, Chacin, Cabrera, Olsen and Willingham, we have plenty to get excited about and pretend we had another great off season. 

Let's bring back Vindicator and revive the vindication thread. 

We did crap can Lenny Harris.

[sportsfan882]

We did crap can Lenny Harris.

And Jesus Colome! And TVR! 

[PANatsFan]

DCFan, lemme ask this.

You (and most of us here, including me) are advocating signing Dunn.

Minty is apparently advocating signing Manny.

nobody is advocating *not signing anyone*, as far as I can tell.

so what's the difference here?

personally, I don't give a crap if we sign Dunn, Manny, or whomever, as long as they are capable of batting 4th, hitting 35+ HRs, and providing a stable, run-producing anchor in the middle of our lineup.

I think Abreu wouldn't hit 40 HR's but is acceptable - I know you have been amenable to that too. If we sign no one we are DOOMED

[MrMadison]

I think Abreu wouldn't hit 40 HR's but is acceptable - I know you have been amenable to that too. If we sign no one we are DOOMED

Abreu's HR+2B = 309 over the past 5 seasons.

I wouldn't be opposed. his HR total has gone down a bit, but he's still hitting a ton of doubles.

which says to me that the power is still there, and he can bat 5th and still drive in a good amount.

[PANatsFan]

Abreu's HR+2B = 309 over the past 5 seasons.

I wouldn't be opposed. his HR total has gone down a bit, but he's still hitting a ton of doubles.

which says to me that the power is still there, and he can bat 5th and still drive in a good amount.

We need a guy with power who can grind out at bats. There three such guys on the market. JIMBO sign one you jerk!!!

[ronnynat]

If you're going to point to homeruns (and the majority of them in the smallest ballpark in the majors) as the litmus test for who sucks and who doesn't; then no, I can't explain it ito you.

150 at home. 128 away. Not that big of a difference. He hits no-doubters, so it doesn't matter where he's playing.