Plan "B"

[Minty Fresh]

Can someone explain to me how the ONLY GUY, the ONLY GUY, to hit 40+ homers for the past 5 seasons sucks?

If you're going to point to homeruns (and the majority of them in the smallest ballpark in the majors) as the litmus test for who sucks and who doesn't; then no, I can't explain it ito you.

[hammondsnats]

For those against Dunn/Ramirez, they aren't going to be here forever.  They will step in hit some dingers, help us win some gamea and then make way for our "prospects".  But the thing about bringing in one of these guys is they aren't just a stopgap.  They can actually contribute.  Dunn in the middle of the line-up makes the Nats offense that much better.  Having Ramirez's power and average, makes opponents alter the way they face us. 

We have money saved up, we have holes to fill, it only makes sense to get one of these guys.  Either a 40 HR guy w/ a .380 OBP or a 40 HR guy w/ .320 AVG. 

Sign me up.

[DCFan]

So can Jose Canseco.  So can Rickey Henderson.  Should we coax them out of retirement?

That's the most ridiculous and farcical thing I've heard about this and only highlights how absurd your thoughts and views on this matter are. Carry on making an arse of yourself.  :stupid:

[Minty Fresh]

That's the most ridiculous and farcical thing I've heard about this and only highlights how absurd your thoughts and views on this matter are. Carry on making an arse of yourself.  :stupid:

Why?  You said, "can do things others on THIS TEAM can't do."  Well, Rickey Henderson could probably steal more bases than anyone on the current roster and he still wants to play and you're telling me Canseco still couldn't hit 25 homers which is more than anyone else on this roster.  If you're going to use OUR CURRENT ROSTER as a measuring stick, there are TONS of players out there who "can do things others on THIS TEAM can't do."

Why such a hard-on for Dunn?  Because he's the modern day Dave Kingman?

[Minty Fresh]

For those against Dunn/Ramirez, they aren't going to be here forever.  They will step in hit some dingers, help us win some gamea and then make way for our "prospects".  But the thing about bringing in one of these guys is they aren't just a stopgap.  They can actually contribute.  Dunn in the middle of the line-up makes the Nats offense that much better.  Having Ramirez's power and average, makes opponents alter the way they face us. 

We have money saved up, we have holes to fill, it only makes sense to get one of these guys.  Either a 40 HR guy w/ a .380 OBP or a 40 HR guy w/ .320 AVG. 

Sign me up.

I am not averse to signing either SHORT TERM.  I think you'll have a problem convincing Dunn to take any less than four years.  Ramirez makes far more sense and, by the way, IS THE FAR SUPERIOR PLAYER even at his advanced age.

[tomterp]

Why such a hard-on for Dunn?  Because he's the modern day Dave Kingman?

Kingman would be the best player on our team.  He was significantly underrated.

[Minty Fresh]

Kingman would be the best player on our team.  He was significantly underrated.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kingmda01.shtml

So would Adam Dunn.  If you throw "potential" out the window, Adam Dunn would be - by far - the best player on this team.  Then again tom, that ain't sayin' much.  Jermaine Dye would also be the best player on this team.  So would Paul Konerko.  Adrian Beltre. 

But we have to take into account the potential of our youth and the direction the franchise is headed.  Adam Dunn playing first base is not the direction.

[MrMadison]

DCFan, lemme ask this.

You (and most of us here, including me) are advocating signing Dunn.

Minty is apparently advocating signing Manny.

nobody is advocating *not signing anyone*, as far as I can tell.

so what's the difference here?

personally, I don't give a crap if we sign Dunn, Manny, or whomever, as long as they are capable of batting 4th, hitting 35+ HRs, and providing a stable, run-producing anchor in the middle of our lineup.

[Minty Fresh]

DCFan, lemme ask this.

You (and most of us here, including me) are advocating signing Dunn.

Minty is apparently advocating signing Manny.

nobody is advocating *not signing anyone*, as far as I can tell.

so what's the difference here?

personally, I don't give a crap if we sign Dunn, Manny, or whomever, as long as they are capable of batting 4th, hitting 35+ HRs, and providing a stable, run-producing anchor in the middle of our lineup.

THE ONLY BENEFIT to Dunn over Manny is money (which DCfan said is not his concern).  All of the splits show Manny to be a far superior option.  In a vacuum, both with three year contracts, why wouldn't you take Manny?

[HalfSmokes]

If you're going to point to homeruns (and the majority of them in the smallest ballpark in the majors) as the litmus test for who sucks and who doesn't; then no, I can't explain it ito you.

Does that mean NJ is better than Howard or Kearns is better than Holliday? Should we never go after a guy who plays in a hitters park- good thing we didn't get Tex since his best numbers were in Texas. Oh and by the way Dunn had better slugging percentages playing for the D-Backs, and at away games for the Reds last year than he did at Great America 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=276055&statType=1

[Minty Fresh]

FWIW, I don't think Manny would sign here, and I'm not so sure Dunn will either.  I honestly think Tampa makes a big splash and lands Dunn and Manny goes back tothe Dodgers.

[HalfSmokes]

THE ONLY BENEFIT to Dunn over Manny is money (which DCfan said is not his concern).  All of the splits show Manny to be a far superior option.  In a vacuum, both with three year contracts, why wouldn't you take Manny?

39 years old

[tomterp]

Adam Dunn playing first base is not the direction.

I would put Dunn in left and Willingham at first.

[cmdterps44]

Well some things Minty is saying, has been that we save our money other than signing Manny... I agree with you though, I hope we sign anyone that fills that description... Or even better, Trade.

[UpperDec]

Because he's the modern day Dave Kingman?

This comparison is simply ridiculous and I have heard it a couple of times. 

Career OPS for Dave Kingman = .780;  Adam Dunn = .899.  Kingman's career OBA was .302;  Dunn's .381.  Dunn is far from perfect but he is a much better player than Kingman was.

[Minty Fresh]

Does that mean NJ is better than Howard or Kearns is better than Holliday? Should we never go after a guy who plays in a hitters park- good thing we didn't get Tex since his best numbers were in Texas. Oh and by the way Dunn had better slugging percentages playing for the D-Backs, and at away games for the Reds last year than he did at Great America 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=276055&statType=1

You also have to take other factors into account.  You're taking a guy who is a mediocre (at best) outfielder and asking him to play 1B - a critical position in determining the effectiveness of your infield defense.  I'd rather have a guy who hits 25 HR's and drives in 75-90 RBI and plays GG calibre defense than a guy who hits 40 HR and drives in 110-120 RBI but has 30 errors at 1B and taxing our pitching staff.  At the end of the day, another 25-30 RBI translates to one extra RBI every five games - and how many of those are really going to determine the outcome of a game? 

Whereas, an error that extends an inning often far extends an inning beyond its normal limits and cripples a pitching staff.  Plus, the less-than-adequate 1B contributes to more errors by the other infielders as well.  These are "stats" that aren't quantifiable per se, but over the course of a season become apparent. 

When you think about it, the difference between 30 and 40 HR/season is one homer every 16 games.  The homerun is vastly overrated but very pretty to look at.  It's like a shiny bracelet to an Ewok.

[tomterp]

This comparison is simply ridiculous and I have heard it a couple of times. 

Career OPS for Dave Kingman = .780;  Adam Dunn = .899.  Kingman's career OBA was .302;  Dunn's .381.  Dunn is far from perfect but he is a much better player than Kingman was.

Kingman actually compares very nearly equivalent to Joe Carter in terms of career performance levels.  Only difference, Carter played on good teams and had a lot more ducks on the pond.

[Minty Fresh]

This comparison is simply ridiculous and I have heard it a couple of times. 

Career OPS for Dave Kingman = .780;  Adam Dunn = .899.  Kingman's career OBA was .302;  Dunn's .381.  Dunn is far from perfect but he is a much better player than Kingman was.

Kingman also played in the dead-ball, giagantic ballpark era.  All those parks inthe 1970's were built like RFK and the ball was like a pair of socks wrapped in duct tape.

[Minty Fresh]

I would put Dunn in left and Willingham at first.

If we were in the American League I would be in favor of Dunn over Manny.  The only position Dunn is suited for long-term is DH.

[tomterp]

You also have to take other factors into account.  You're taking a guy who is a mediocre (at best) outfielder and asking him to play 1B - a critical position in determining the effectiveness of your infield defense.  I'd rather have a guy who hits 25 HR's and drives in 75-90 RBI and plays GG calibre defense than a guy who hits 40 HR and drives in 110-120 RBI but has 30 errors at 1B and taxing our pitching staff. 

Has Dunn ever had an extended period of time at first?  If not, it can be expected that he would improve with experience.  Dmitri was quite a bit better by the end of his first season here, though we all remember plenty of ugliness - mostly first half though.

[HalfSmokes]

You also have to take other factors into account.  You're taking a guy who is a mediocre (at best) outfielder and asking him to play 1B - a critical position in determining the effectiveness of your infield defense.  I'd rather have a guy who hits 25 HR's and drives in 75-90 RBI and plays GG calibre defense than a guy who hits 40 HR and drives in 110-120 RBI but has 30 errors at 1B and taxing our pitching staff.  At the end of the day, another 25-30 RBI translates to one extra RBI every five games - and how many of those are really going to determine the outcome of a game? 

Whereas, an error that extends an inning often far extends an inning beyond its normal limits and cripples a pitching staff.  Plus, the less-than-adequate 1B contributes to more errors by the other infielders as well.  These are "stats" that aren't quantifiable per se, but over the course of a season become apparent. 

When you think about it, the difference between 30 and 40 HR/season is one homer every 16 games.  The homerun is vastly overrated but very pretty to look at.  It's like a shiny bracelet to an Ewok.

Critical defense?? First base is the least demanding defensive position on the field - and if he is that bad, put him in left and put Willinham there. And you're right the home run is vastly overrated maybe we should put willie harris at first and get teh defense and the speed. What stat isn't overrated- he is a better hitter than anyone on our team in every category exept for average.

[UpperDec]

Kingman actually compares very nearly equivalent to Joe Carter in terms of career performance levels.  Only difference, Carter played on good teams and had a lot more ducks on the pond.

OPS and OBA are individual stats and don't have much to do with his lineup around him.  Dunn's 3 years of driving in over 100 runs (Kingman 2) and scoring 100 runs (Kingman =0 ) would have something to do with his lineup.

[Minty Fresh]

Has Dunn ever had an extended period of time at first?  If not, it can be expected that he would improve with experience.  Dmitri was quite a bit better by the end of his first season here, though we all remember plenty of ugliness - mostly first half though.

Young didn't play a lot in the second half, Boone did.

And people think you can just plug in a big, dumb oaf at 1B and just let him go.  Not true.  Huge drop-off between Nick and Young.  Nick is fantastic and would probably play better 1B with a broken leg than Young did.  By the time you give Dunn enough experience at 1B, our pitchers' arms will fall off.

[Minty Fresh]

Critical defense?? First base is the least demanding defensive position on the field - and if he is that bad, put him in left and put Willinham there. And you're right the home run is vastly overrated maybe we should put willie harris at first and get teh defense and the speed. What stat isn't overrated- he is a better hitter than anyone on our team in every category exept for average.

SO IS MANNY RAMIREZ.

And Dunn has had far more opportunities than anyone else on our roster (except maybe Belliard, Guzman and Kearns).  Stands to reason his walks would be higher if he's had more plate appearances.

[tomterp]

Just for fun, here's Dunn's player profile from BP, with tools rated:



and career EqA (equivalent average)

Joe Carter  .263
Dave Kingman .274
Adam Dunn .300