2023 MLB Draft

[DCsOwn]

An interesting Skenes profile:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-lsu-part-2-paul-skenes-is-on-a-new-heading/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

An interesting Skenes profile:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-lsu-part-2-paul-skenes-is-on-a-new-heading/

yes, sounds like a Rizzo pick. The only thing he's missing is the TJS, and we can hope he never needs it.

[DCsOwn]

yes, sounds like a Rizzo pick. The only thing he's missing is the TJS, and we can hope he never needs it.

I think so too. Definitely going to follow his progression closely this season as I think he's a very viable candidate for our second pick.

[Slateman]

yes, sounds like a Rizzo pick. The only thing he's missing is the TJS, and we can hope he never needs it.

Nats pitching prospects are skipping TJS and going straight to TOS.

TJS is now for position players

[DCsOwn]

https://twitter.com/gatorsbb/status/1628204026365108224?s=46&t=0KbWiUgYwGdq5SwwL_Gv1w

Crews/Langford/Clark/Dollander/Skenes. The Nats selection likely comes from that quintet.

I’d be perfectly happy with any of the five honestly.

[Elvir Ovcina]

With guys this young, a season of development both physically and skills-wise really matters.  That, and the injury risks, make it too soon in my view to really have this discussion.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

With guys this young, a season of development both physically and skills-wise really matters.  That, and the injury risks, make it too soon in my view to really have this discussion.

but we need it to get the post count up!

[DCsOwn]

With guys this young, a season of development both physically and skills-wise really matters.  That, and the injury risks, make it too soon in my view to really have this discussion.

Most of the physical development between now and the draft is done for the prospects I alluded to, and we’re beginning to see what they’ve improved upon skill wise over the offseason that preceded their draft year. Still more data points to plot obviously (particularly as it pertains to their in-season performance this year), but the aforementioned players were really highly regarded prior to the start of their seasons, and many of them look to have taken steps early on (from a physical perspective). 

Anyway, my post was more a prediction about how I think things will wind up come June, but I certainly could be mistaken.

[DCsOwn]

but we need it to get the post count up!

It’s absolutely not too early to talk draft! At a minimum it’s useful (and fun!) to catalogue some of the in-season performances of the viable candidates for the second pick in this draft.

It probably was too early to make a statement as declarative as the one I made a few posts ago, but it’s a thing that I believe so why no got on record with it?!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It’s absolutely not too early to talk draft! At a minimum it’s useful (and fun!) to catalogue some of the in-season performances of the viable candidates for the second pick in this draft.

It probably was too early to make a statement as declarative as the one I made a few posts ago, but it’s a thing that I believe so why no got on record with it?!

absolutely agree.  Gives you teams to look at on ESPN+, for example.  I'd imagine Friday night LSU games will be sort of a must to watch. 

[HondoKillebrew]

The only upside of the team being terrible last year is having the #2 pick and the possibility of selecting a superstar, face-of-the-team type player. May as well enjoy following the top prospects and related speculation. The situation will evolve, but that's part of the fun. 

[DCsOwn]

Keith Law stated at the end of his latest pod (the one with Longenhagen) that he had someone say to him (ostensibly a scout or an exec with a MLB club; he didn’t specify) that they’d take Langford over Crews (Law has them 1/2 in his personal ranking). They both agreed that Langford is firmly in the 1-1 convo (and hence a seemingly viable alternative to Crews should the Nats decide to go position player).

[imref]

BBA has the Nats picking Skenes at #2

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-draft-baseball-america-staff-draft-v-10/

here's the mlb.com scouting report on him:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55

Part of an outlandish Louisiana State recruiting class, Skenes spent his first two college seasons at Air Force and pitched two summers with the U.S. collegiate national team before coming to Baton Rouge. The only NCAA Division I player to reach double figures in wins and home runs in 2022, he's the best two-way player in the 2023 class. But he's a potential No. 1 overall pick on the mound, so he'll almost certainly get drafted as a pitcher.

After working at 93-95 mph and touching 99 with his fastball last spring, Skenes operated at 95-99 mph during fall practice, and the flat approach angle and carry on his heater make it even more difficult to hit. His slider has improved at LSU, becoming an 85-88 mph beast with sharp break when it's on, though it can get loose at times. His power changeup arrives at 88-91 mph with fade and shows signs of becoming a solid offering.

Physically imposing at 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, Skenes is athletic with the body control to repeat a sound delivery and provide plenty of strikes. If there's a knock on him as a pitcher, it's that hitters can see the ball well out of his hand. He'd factor into the top three rounds as a position player thanks to his huge right-handed power to all fields and projected solid defense at first base. He caught some at Air Force but is too big for the position.

[zimm_da_kid]

Kinda leaning Skenes or Langford at this point

[DCsOwn]

Kinda leaning Skenes or Langford at this point

With the caveat that it’s still quite early in the process, if the draft were held today, my preference would be Crews, then Langford, then Clark, then Skenes/Dollander. With the new lottery rules, I think that I’d avoid the extra layer of risk associated with taking an arm that high.
 
Plus, adding Langford/Crews basically ensures that you have the deepest pool of outfield prospects in the sport and exponentially increases the likelihood that your outfield of the future in some combination is in your organization.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm leaning towards them picking whoever is cheapest to sign

[imref]

given how barren our minor league pitching depth is at this point, a pitcher would make sense, but generally best available makes even more sense.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'd be curious if there's some sort of reverse engineering on drafting priorities that reviews the returns on high first rounders, back half, 2d rounders, etc...  Is the bust potential greater for a pitcher taken high than a position player?  TINSTAAPP to an extreme. Conversely, is the payoff from a hit better for pitchers than other positions?  SS, C, CF, is there an order? 

[Section214]

I'm leaning towards them picking whoever is cheapest to sign

Bleh. I hope you meant to post that on the Pirates message board.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'd be curious if there's some sort of reverse engineering on drafting priorities that reviews the returns on high first rounders, back half, 2d rounders, etc...  Is the bust potential greater for a pitcher taken high than a position player?  TINSTAAPP to an extreme. Conversely, is the payoff from a hit better for pitchers than other positions?  SS, C, CF, is there an order?

Sure, the bust potential is higher for pitchers just because of injuries.  But the payoff from a hit is indeed bigger for pitchers - look at the top-end FA AAVs for some guidance there. 

Starting pitchers are the hardest thing to find in baseball.  After that it'd be SS; not sure beyond that.

[Natsinpwc]

Bleh. I hope you meant to post that on the Pirates message board.

We are the Pirates.

[Elvir Ovcina]

We are the Pirates.

With a World Series title but a worse stadium.  And no Oneil Cruz, who is entertaining if nothing else.

[Kevrock]

I'm leaning towards them picking whoever is cheapest to sign

They have literally never done this and yet you keep posting it

[Elvir Ovcina]

Does anyone know what the slot values are tied to?  Is the TV revenue snafu likely to drop them next year? 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sure, the bust potential is higher for pitchers just because of injuries.  But the payoff from a hit is indeed bigger for pitchers - look at the top-end FA AAVs for some guidance there. 

Starting pitchers are the hardest thing to find in baseball.  After that it'd be SS; not sure beyond that.

yes, but how much more likely is that super-valuable pitcher to be the guy you identify as a top 5 pick than is that guy to be picked later, and is that hit ratio better than the ratio of position players in the $20MM+ AAV range for the same picks?

Maybe that is hyper convoluted, but think of it this way - among the $30 million pitchers, there's Cole and Strasburg (I consider him a hit), but not Scherzer, de Grom, etc...  I forget where Kershaw and Greinke were drafted, but ...

Taking this back to the current situation, do you gamble on Skenes / Dollander even with the bust likelihood, or do you go position player?  Stras or Dustin Ackley (or the obvious pick, Trout). Do you value Skenes ability to hit as a floor under his bust potential?