NL East Race Watch

[GNatsNoMore]

I don't watch the standings until August.

FP said the other day that the Nationals magic number was something like 158.   

[imref]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-to-predict-mlb-records-from-early-results/

we're pegged for 87-90 wins

[mitlen]

Followed the standings and learned to keep score around 6 years old   ...   when pops taught me how to do both.    Of course, I didn't "get it" until I started playing little league.         

[houston-nat]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-to-predict-mlb-records-from-early-results/

we're pegged for 87-90 wins

I can't believe I just read an article where the related link was about Pubic Hair Preferences.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

The algorithm must have zeroed in on "pegged"

I can't believe I just read an article where the related link was about Pubic Hair Preferences.

[JMW IV]

2nd this motion.  So tell us BIL - why are you looking in this thread then ?

because he feels a compulsive need to sit on his sunshine horse and dictate to everyone else how to be fans.

[TigerFan]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-to-predict-mlb-records-from-early-results/

we're pegged for 87-90 wins

 

[HalfSmokes]

4 games back on April 28 is probably meaningless, but when does it start to matter? for the people who say it's early is there a number where it starts to matter? Personally, after it was early last year until it was too late, I think anything more than 7 games at any point is my panic point now.

[JanuaryHos]

4 games back on April 28 is probably meaningless, but when does it start to matter? for the people who say it's early is there a number where it starts to matter? Personally, after it was early last year until it was too late, I think anything more than 7 games at any point is my panic point now.

5 games back in the loss column. Don't think we're closer to them just because we've played more games.

[DPMOmaha]

4 games back on April 28 is probably meaningless, but when does it start to matter? for the people who say it's early is there a number where it starts to matter? Personally, after it was early last year until it was too late, I think anything more than 7 games at any point is my panic point now.

Well, it all matters, but the statement that "it is early" is true, as much as some on here hate that phrase. It'd be much worse if this rash of injuries happened in August. It's not going to matter at all if they can't figure out how to beat the Braves. Until they do that, it's not going to matter much. They don't see the Braves until the middle of June. If they're healthy (healthier?) by then, I'll take my chances. The schedule isn't necessarily easy between now and then, but it's not absurd either, although that stretch from May 30 - June 25 could be a season definer.

[Optics]

Games played in April matter just as much as games played in September.

[sportsfan882]

Well, it all matters, but the statement that "it is early" is true, as much as some on here hate that phrase. It'd be much worse if this rash of injuries happened in August. It's not going to matter at all if they can't figure out how to beat the Braves. Until they do that, it's not going to matter much. They don't see the Braves until the middle of June. If they're healthy (healthier?) by then, I'll take my chances. The schedule isn't necessarily easy between now and then, but it's not absurd either, although that stretch from May 30 - June 25 could be a season definer.

Why can't the Nats be leading by 4 games in the division? Why can't they repeat what they did in 2012? Are the Braves that much better or are we that much worse?

[DPMOmaha]

Why can't the Nats be leading by 4 games in the division? Why can't they repeat what they did in 2012? Are the Braves that much better or are we that much worse?

Because games aren't played in a vacuum. The Braves really aren't that much better or worse than the Nats except for when they play each other. (going by record only...) We'll never repeat 2012. Seasons like that happen very rarely in the life of a franchise. You may see seasons where they achieve a similar record, but in terms of sheer joy and the unexpectedness of what they did, that can't be replicated. And this year isn't a replication of last year, even if there are some similarities.

[sportsfan882]

Just because they had 1 joyous year doesn't mean they can't have another. Will the circumstances be different? Yes, but teams like the Cardinals and Tigers are having magical seasons every year making it into the postseason. The Giants are another great example. They've captured some amazing magic twice.

[DPMOmaha]

Just because they had 1 joyous year doesn't mean they can't have another. Will the circumstances be different? Yes, but teams like the Cardinals and Tigers are having magical seasons every year making it into the postseason. The Giants are another great example. They've captured some amazing magic twice.

Oh, sure, but you only get years like 2012 once, or maybe once in a generation. They might (and probably should) replicate that success, but you can't replicate the joy ride. The first time is the most special. Don't get me wrong, if this team goes on to win the World Series some day, that will be amazing and that POSTSEASON will be something for the ages, but for the entirity of a season, 2012 will be about as good as it gets. The Tigers and Cardinals don't play for that, they play to have success in October. That's where we want to be. We're not there yet.

[HalfSmokes]

The Tigers and Cardinals don't play for that, they play to have success in October. That's where we want to be. We're not there yet.

most pundits seem to disagree- preseason, almost everyone had the nats taking the division, and more than a few have us in the world series- the expectations are already here for this team

[DPMOmaha]

most pundits seem to disagree- preseason, almost everyone had the nats taking the division, and more than a few have us in the world series- the expectations are already here for this team

I'm not really concerned about the outside expectations. The Nats haven't had any success in the post season, so until they get to a place where they can (almost) assume a post season, they have to take the regular season with an added level of seriousness. They're not there yet. The Tigers and Cardinals are regulars. They know how to handle the process. The Nats haven't shown they do yet. Once that happens, we can start having the conversation about where they fit into the hierarchy of teams in baseball

[wpa2629]

I'm not really concerned about the outside expectations. The Nats haven't had any success in the post season, so until they get to a place where they can (almost) assume a post season, they have to take the regular season with an added level of seriousness. They're not there yet. The Tigers and Cardinals are regulars. They know how to handle the process. The Nats haven't shown they do yet. Once that happens, we can start having the conversation about where they fit into the hierarchy of teams in baseball

Yeah

This

[mach1ne]

most pundits seem to disagree- preseason, almost everyone had the nats taking the division, and more than a few have us in the world series- the expectations are already here for this team

We are missing 3/8 of our opening day lineup and 1/5 of our starting rotation.  That's huge.  I'm concerned about keeping pace with the Braves so we don't lose anymore ground, but if we are still playing this way in July then it might be time to throw in the towel.  There is no way the Braves rotation can keep up as if they are throwing Jose Fernandez out there everyday.

[HalfSmokes]

We are missing 3/8 of our opening day lineup and 1/5 of our starting rotation.  That's huge.  I'm concerned about keeping pace with the Braves so we don't lose anymore ground, but if we are still playing this way in July then it might be time to throw in the towel.  There is no way the Braves rotation can keep up as if they are throwing Jose Fernandez out there everyday.

for most of the season, we were down a catcher who's always injured and a number 4 starter- it's not like the braves started leaping ahead when Zimmerman and Harper went down

[spidernat]

We are missing 3/8 of our opening day lineup

Harper has missed the last two games. It's not like he's been gone for a significant time during the mediocre start.

[Baseball is Life]

Games played in April matter just as much as games played in September.

Mathematically, yes. Psychologically, no.

[spidernat]

lol

[Baseball is Life]

because he feels a compulsive need to sit on his sunshine horse and dictate to everyone else how to be fans.

I just hate whiners, panic monkeys, and Negative Nancys. And when I'm shouting down those denizens of the Triangle of Doubt, I'd like to think I am not just telling them how to be a better fan, but really how to live a better life.

[varoadking]

I just hate whiners, panic monkeys, and Negative Nancys. And when I'm shouting down those denizens of the Triangle of Doubt, I'd like to think I am not just telling them how to be a better fan, but really how to live a better life.

Ah...sarcasm...