The Rotation (2025):

[welch]

Josiah Gray after the All-Star break? Or Early August?

Stretch out Lord?

[imref]

Josiah Gray after the All-Star break? Or Early August?

Stretch out Lord?

I think an optimistic timeline for Gray is that he makes a minor league start before the end of the year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think Lord is back to the bullpen once Soroka is ready, barring the injury being a lot worse than they let on.

[IanRubbish]

I think Lord has a lot of potential.  He needs a little more confidence, sort of like Mitchell Parker who was unfazed in its first ever outing at LA.  We also have no idea about injury severity because the org treats those like state secrets.

[imref]

I think Lord has a lot of potential.  He needs a little more confidence, sort of like Mitchell Parker who was unfazed in its first ever outing at LA.  We also have no idea about injury severity because the org treats those like state secrets.

to go from working in Home Depot to striking out Shohei Ohtani is more evidence that we live in a simulation.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I liked the back and forth last night between Franny and Bob about how, years from now, he'll just casually drop in a conversation that he struck out Ohtani the for his first K as a starter like pitchers casually mentioned any success they had against Babe Ruth.

[English Natsie]

According to nats.com, Jake honored Ove by wearing his Ove Record shirt at yesterday's game. Now I wonder if Ove will return the favor and wear an Irvin Nationals shirt?...    

[aspenbubba]

I think an optimistic timeline for Gray is that he makes a minor league start before the end of the year.

I’m not sure why anyone is counting on Gray as he is Joe Ross 2.0

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I’m not sure why anyone is counting on Gray as he is Joe Ross 2.0

if you mean injuries blocking their last step to being main pieces of the rotation, you may be right, but they are very different. Ross w had 2 great pitches but nothing else, while Gray has thrown about 6 or so with a few better than average

[welch]

Rotation is missing Soroka and Herz, and I'm not sure that Soroka's injury is a mere cramp. Need that fifth starter. The lineup is getting better, and the Nats even seem to have some depth. But the pitching is dumpy. While Rizzo usually, somehow, finds relief pitchers, no teams let go of starters.

[Smithian]

Rotation is missing Soroka and Herz, and I'm not sure that Soroka's injury is a mere cramp. Need that fifth starter. The lineup is getting better, and the Nats even seem to have some depth. But the pitching is dumpy. While Rizzo usually, somehow, finds relief pitchers, no teams let go of starters.

I feel like Andry Lara is first man up at this point. For now, Lord is a atarter.

[imref]

Lord, Irvin, Parker, Williams are next up. Lord faces Skenes.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Nationals’ starters have a 3.87 ERA, several ticks better than the MLB average of 4.03. Of note: Irvin (3.68), Mitchell Parker (1.85) and Brad Lord (4.73) are homegrown entities, drafted in the fourth, fifth and 18th round, respectively. Throw in Gore (3.41 ERA with an MLB-best 45 strikeouts), and that’s a sturdy base.

There’s room to improve, no doubt. Most of the top rotations in baseball are amalgamations of trades, free agents and homegrown players. The Nationals haven’t spent big on a starter in a while. But a franchise that hasn’t always developed (and kept) starting pitchers from within has itself a foundation, buoyed by several players rehabbing from Tommy John surgery (DJ Herz, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray) and a handful of promising arms in the lower rungs of the minor leagues (Jarlin Susana, Travis Sykora, Alex Clemmey and Jackson Kent).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/04/20/nationals-rockies-doubleheader/

Had a bit of a back and forth on the Nats Stats thread about lumping in the rotation's stats with the bullpen's to dis the entire pitching staff, so I think it is interesting that they starters by themselves are well above MLB average in a few meaningful stats. They could tail later in the year; at least a couple did. That said, there's depth now and on the way.

FWIW, they are 10th in FIP-based fWAR, 14th in ERA. Hurt some by BABIP (22d). Surprisingly, they aren't that bad in HR/9 (essentially tied with DET, HOU, and SF for 10th at 1.06/9), they'd be even better than that except they are not a GB rotation (23d) and  have a mediocre HR/FB (13th). 8th in K/9 due I suppose to Gore, but not walking many (9th). I wouldn't say they are quite in contention for league leadership, but they aren't the weak spot on this team and aren't the reason they are sub-.500.

Digging a little deeper, the flies they give up are more Oppo flies than pull and CF, which helps. As for BABIP again, tops in LD%.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=sta&sortcol=13&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

[Slateman]

Gotta say, Gore, Parker, and Irvin are performing nicely. Lord has been fine as a spot starter. Williams is what we thought he would be.

Just reiterates my point that if the Lerners had been willing to spend like a top 10 market/top 3 richest owners in baseball, then we could talk about the playoffs

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Heck, had they rolled the dice on Tyler Anderson a couple of years ago like I wanted, they'd have their #2.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/04/30/mitchell-parker-nationals-pitching-mechanics/

discusses Parker's delivery - over the top even with a body motion like a low slot pitcher. Deceptive. Has the highest arm angle of any starter in baseball (60+ %). Kind of an outgrowth of his long toss routine since he was in high school. Leads to apparent rise in his fastball as he generates a lot of backspin. While he walked a lot in the minors, he's found moving even more over the top gets him better command. Hickey compares the motion to Andy Pettite.

[imref]

So for a team that can't develop pitchers, we've now got 3 effective starters, all home grown, in our rotation. And the guy at the top of the rotation, in his third year here, is putting up his best season so far with a league leading 59Ks

[welch]

Keep Lord in the rotation. He has looked good. Move Williams to long reliever when Soroka returns, if Soroka is any good. Lord gets better and goes longer each game. Let him stretch in the majors.

[Natsinpwc]

One month is a small sample size for these guys.  Irvin has a longer track record so a more sure bet to keep it up.  However he seems to have lost velocity.  Parker started great last year and then regressed.  Lord’s ERA is about four and a half.  Baseball season is a marathon not a track meet. 

[Slateman]

I think the rotation will work itself out. Gotta think Irvin throwing 91mph fastballs doesn't bode well for his health

[hotshot]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/04/30/mitchell-parker-nationals-pitching-mechanics/

discusses Parker's delivery - over the top even with a body motion like a low slot pitcher. Deceptive. Has the highest arm angle of any starter in baseball (60+ %). Kind of an outgrowth of his long toss routine since he was in high school. Leads to apparent rise in his fastball as he generates a lot of backspin. While he walked a lot in the minors, he's found moving even more over the top gets him better command. Hickey compares the motion to Andy Pettite.

Was it White Sox Pitching Coach Don Cooper who looked at Stras's motion 15 yrs ago and declared him a medical issue waiting to happen? Is Parker's unique delivery problematic, or no?

[Elvir Ovcina]

Was it White Sox Pitching Coach Don Cooper who looked at Stras's motion 15 yrs ago and declared him a medical issue waiting to happen? Is Parker's unique delivery problematic, or no?

If anything, it'd be an issue for his shoulder, but he's old enough that it probably would have cropped up by now.  Totally different thing than Strasburg. 

I do think there's something in the deceptive part of arm and body not matching.  I saw a dude last night in a minor league game who had the reverse - body motion of an over the top, but a low slot - and that worked too.  Was getting swings and misses on fastballs at or below 90.