Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025

[imref]

MLB Pipeline Nats' Top 30: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals (updated several times a year).

[IanRubbish]

Look out for Jake Bennett, in spite of being ranked 18th.  Rizzo's got a serious man crush on him.  Like most Rizzo man crushes he'll likely do very little while late rounders with control make the MLB rotation, but he's going to get a chance either way.

Also, Brad Lord is next up for a rotation spot, and he's 30th?  Meanwhile, Sykora, who shows promise, but has never pitched above Low A is 2nd.  These rankings don't have a history of correlating to MLB success and I don't think this list will.

[imref]

BBA top-10 for 2025:( last year’s ranking in parentheses)

Dylan Crews, OF (1)
Travis Sykora, RHP (14)
Jarlin Susana, RHP (10)
Brady House, 3B (3)
Seaver King, SS (’24 Draft Pick)
Alex Clemmey, LHP (’24 Trade)
Cade Cavalli, RHP (4)
Caleb Lomavita, C (’24 Draft pick)
Cayden Wallace, 3B (’24 Trade)
Daylen Lile, OF (11)

Analysis: https://nationalsprospects.com/2024/11/baseball-america-ranks-the-top-10-nats-prospects-12/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Lile ahead of Dickerson, Morales, and Hassell. I'm a bit down on his power when looking ahead.

[imref]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/95926/2025-prospects-the-top-101-sliced-and-diced/

- Dylan Crews, No. 2
- Jarlin Susana, No. 47
- Travis Sykora, No. 59

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Todd Boss reports on Prospects 1500 rankings of the Nats top 50, with his own thoughts on the rankings:
https://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18767

Crews
house
Sykora
King
Susana
Morales
Clemmey
Hassell
Cavalli
Lile

Says the top 5 are more or less the prospect tracker consensus. Morales he views as being a leap of faith based on his end of 2024, while Lile is a stretch. Questions leaving Lara outside the top 10 (he's #16). He has a lot more detail on the whole list. Also a great discussion in the comments.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

http://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2025/01/3-nats-in-top-101-prospects.html

I like Harper's perspective on the meaning of prospect rankings. In his comment on BP's top 101 list, he observes the rankings are often based on a couple things. First, there are the guys who earn the spot through performance and talent evaluation. Then there's the guys that no one wants to be embarrassed about for missing if they do click. Raw talent gets slightly over-rated relative to unexpected performance. As he sees it, House dropping off the top 101 is an indication that BP wouldn't be embarrassed if he clicks big time. He's exhausted the charm of being a high draft choice after 2024. That doesn't mean he will not make the majors - that's still possible - but the rankers don't see him as becoming a stud absent some big flaws (big K rate, microscopic BB rate) being remedied.

That said, Harper is high on Crews at #2, Susana at #47, and Sykora at #59.

Crews at #2 is great to hear. It means the belief he won't bust out is as high as can be.  That is FAR from a given. Any look at previous lists will tell you that. But still teams need players who can contribute and Crews projects to be one.There shouldn't be a real hole in his game. The question is where the bat falls. That he's that high suggests they like the possibility of him of hitting above average and that would make him an overall great player with his defense and speed projections.

As for Susana / Sykora, their rankings show a lot of fear they may hit it big time even if they only dominated low A (and, in Susana's case, got exposure to high A). Lot's of ways neither hits the majors, but in his view, the odds of that happening is not much better than the odds of at least one being very good.

Nice comments in the article / worth a read.

[imref]

MLB Pipeline top 100 is out:

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/top100/

4-Crews
70-Sykora
79-Susana

[nobleisthyname]

Keith Law has the Nats as having the 17th best farm system:

The Nats’ talent is on the upswing, but they promote guys so quickly that they may end up in the playoffs before they have a top-10 system. Sixty percent of the Juan Soto trade is in the majors now, and 20 percent of it might not turn into anything (the other player they received was Luke Voit, who played in the Mexican League last year). They had a great draft last year to inject a lot of highly polished college players into the system, backed up with some upside plays. Their international pipeline has dried up recently post-Soto, though; they’ve spent big on some top IFAs, but none have panned out since he did.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6094581/2025/01/30/mlb-farm-system-rankings-2025/

Not ideal since this ranking still includes Crews.

[imref]

Law’s top-20:

Dylan Crews, OF
Seaver King, SS
Travis Sykora, RHP
Brady House, 3B
Jarlin Susana, RHP
Kevin Bazell, C
Alex Clemmey, LHP
Cade Cavalli, RHP
Luke Dickerson, SS
Tyler Stuart, RHP
Caleb Lomavita, C
Yohandy Morales, 1B/3B
Cayden Wallace, 3B
Daylen Lile, OF
Andry Lara, RHP
Robert Hassell, OF
Kevin Made, SS
Jake Bennett, LHP
Randal Diaz, SS
Robert Cranz, RHP

[nobleisthyname]

Law’s top-20:

Dylan Crews, OF
Seaver King, SS
Travis Sykora, RHP
Brady House, 3B
Jarlin Susana, RHP
Kevin Bazell, C
Alex Clemmey, LHP
Cade Cavalli, RHP
Luke Dickerson, SS
Tyler Stuart, RHP
Caleb Lomavita, C
Yohandy Morales, 1B/3B
Cayden Wallace, 3B
Daylen Lile, OF
Andry Lara, RHP
Robert Hassell, OF
Kevin Made, SS
Jake Bennett, LHP
Randal Diaz, SS
Robert Cranz, RHP

Don't know these two.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Diaz was a 5th round pick last year. College age. Looks to go to A this year.
https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=40844.msg2328096#msg2328096

[imref]

Diaz was a 5th round pick last year. College age. Looks to go to A this year.
https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=40844.msg2328096#msg2328096

The writeup on NationalsProspects.com notes that Cruz is a rotation possibility for this year.  He also points out that Susana and Lara's struggles against LHB are likely leading them to the bullpen.

https://nationalsprospects.com/2025/02/keith-law-ranks-nats-top-20-prospects/

King as #2 is a surprise.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The writeup on NationalsProspects.com notes that Cruz is a rotation possibility for this year.  He also points out that Susana and Lara's struggles against LHB are likely leading them to the bullpen.

https://nationalsprospects.com/2025/02/keith-law-ranks-nats-top-20-prospects/

King as #2 is a surprise.

cranz not cruz?

[imref]

cranz not cruz?

cranz. Darn auto correct.

[welch]

Keith Law had an interesting summary of Nats top 20. He thinks Hassell is not even a 4th or 5th OF. Sever King is number 2, a surprise to me. And includes some surprising guys.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Keith Law had an interesting summary of Nats top 20. He thinks Hassell is not even a 4th or 5th OF. Sever King is number 2, a surprise to me. And includes some surprising guys.

basically, he says Hassell has shown nothing as a hitter since the Nats acquired him. Hard to argue with that, at least until last fall's  AFL season.

Hassell is in a put up or shut up point in his career. if his problem really was his wrist, it's better now, and the AFL foreshadowed this rather than was an outlier, then he moves way up in the pecking order. Of course, if the problem with the pig wasn't just it's weight, and it's wings now are healthy, and the wingspan is adequate, then I suspect we'll see a flying pig soon.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Todd Boss's thoughts on K Law's rankings.
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18797

Somewhat surprised at Morales being dropped to #12 after decent numbers in AA the last 2 months of the season, but there were substantial in-flow into the system last year that slot in ahead of Morales, including King, Clemmey, Stuart, and improvement by Sykora. With Bazzell, Law is sold he can stick at catcher and hit.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Longenhagen is out with his Fangraphs top "100" prospect list (it's really 102, as he includes all 50 FV prospects). 3 Nats make it: Crews #3 (60 FV), Susana #19 (55 FV), and Sykora #84 (50 FV).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-100-prospects/

That's the absolute highest I've seen Susana ranked. He says Susana's slider is one of the best in baseball (70/80), and with his heat,  he already has a deadly combo. Probably needs some  sort of sinker/ splitter to complement them. The fastball doesn't have much movement, so hitters may do better against it at higher levels, but touching 103, it's still going to be good.

As for Crews, Sasaki slips in ahead of him, as Roman Anthony, who plays the same position. Sasaki gets a 65 grade, then 2-10 get 60 grades. Sees Crews as having a good power /speed combo and as having made good adjustments to high inside fastballs last year. Views his debut as better contact-wise than his results. Loves his power to  all  fields, expects Chourio-like performance.

Sykora at #84 doesn't have the superlative fastball velo or jaw-dropping pitch like Susana's slider, but has terrific control and multiple plus pitches. He's aware of the injury and attributes to Rizzo a projection that has Sykora missing most of the first half. That seems like more than I'm aware of being reported.

[imref]

really nice to see Susana climbing again after his early struggles at Fredricksburg.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I did not realize how little he pitched before the trade.

[imref]

Sam Dykstra's top-30 list is finally out:

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/nationals-top-30-prospects-list-2025-preseason

we're still a very top-heavy farm system:

Breakdown by ETA
2025: 10 | 2026: 7 | 2027: 8 | 2028: 2 | 2029: 2 | 2030: 1

[welch]

Maybe we need an Erick Mejia thread. Here is what the Post says today:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/03/08/erick-mejia-pitching-nationals-spring-training/

OF turned pitcher. Strong arm.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

nice discussion of the MLB Pipeline top 30 in Nationals Arm Race by Todd Boss.
https://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18834
Read the comments. There's some back and forth among other folks who blog about the Nats farm system. IDK their links, or I'd add them to our Natmosphere list.

This list is close to Todd's assessment, with very small "hmmm"s on 3 or 4 players. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Todd Boss at Nationals Arm Race up with his top 104 players in the Nats system. That's 50%+ of the system minor league and DSL!
https://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18850

He more or less admits its ridiculous to rank that deep and that, below #40 his rankings are mostly tiers rather than numbers. OTOH, he says a large % of the players he slots have made other rankings, so somebody, perhaps a few people, see something in these players.

That said, there's some interesting observations and thoughts on the fringe players on our FTP lists, so I will add a few of his observations into player threads, especially those that have not been updated in a while.

One general observation of his deserves mention:

AAA rotation, now that Rutledge and Henry are out of the picture, is still looking stuffed. The glut of starters at the MLB level likely sends both Herz and Ogasawara to AAA, along with Cavalli. You already have guys that were in the AAA rotation like Lord, Stuart, and Alvarez who shouldn’t make way. You also have newly added 40-man Lara, who should be in AAA but probably starts in AA. AND you have a couple of new acquisitions that probably should be in that rotation too (Plinkington and Choi). That’s way, way too many starters and something is going to give. I’m guessing Choi goes back to AA (he was a minor league rule-5 pick and was in AA last year). So, best guess on AAA rotation: Herz, Ogasawara, Cavalli, Lord, Alvarez, with Stuart, Lara, Choi back to AA and Plinkington in long-relief/utility man area.

He assumes Cavalli starts the year in the AAA rotation. I'm not sure if we've heard otherwise already. They could go 6 man rotation in AAA, but, tbh, it might be important to get Ogasawara used to every 5th day. AA rotation could be interesting. Assume Bennett is there too, and probably Shuman until he's displaced. I wonder whether Susana starts at AA or they hold him back at A+.