Author Topic: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025  (Read 4909 times)

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Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #25 on: March 17, 2025, 12:24:02 pm »
Todd Boss at Nationals Arm Race up with his top 104 players in the Nats system. That's 50%+ of the system minor league and DSL!
https://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18850

He more or less admits its ridiculous to rank that deep and that, below #40 his rankings are mostly tiers rather than numbers. OTOH, he says a large % of the players he slots have made other rankings, so somebody, perhaps a few people, see something in these players.

That said, there's some interesting observations and thoughts on the fringe players on our FTP lists, so I will add a few of his observations into player threads, especially those that have not been updated in a while.

One general observation of his deserves mention:
He assumes Cavalli starts the year in the AAA rotation. I'm not sure if we've heard otherwise already. They could go 6 man rotation in AAA, but, tbh, it might be important to get Ogasawara used to every 5th day. AA rotation could be interesting. Assume Bennett is there too, and probably Shuman until he's displaced. I wonder whether Susana starts at AA or they hold him back at A+.

Definitely a lot of decent depth that I don't remember having in a long time, if ever. Hopefully a few of them can take some steps forward to be major league rotation mainstays.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2025, 02:29:08 pm »
All the more reason to move Williams and soroka at the deadline if they’re performing.  And bump them to the pen quick if they’re not.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2025, 04:15:46 pm »
All the more reason to move Williams and soroka at the deadline if they’re performing.  And bump them to the pen quick if they’re not.
I kind of see Williams as playing the role Charlie Liebrandt played in the early 90s to Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery. May Gore and the rest be their equals :pray:

Offline imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #28 on: March 31, 2025, 11:13:56 am »
FG Top 100 prospects updated (anyone with a FV of 50 or higher makes the list, so it's more than 100):

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/post-spring-training-top-100-prospects-update/

Crews #3 (60 FV)
Susana #22 (55 FV)
Sykora #108 (50 FV)

Previous:  Crews #3 (60 FV), Susana #19 (55 FV), and Sykora #84 (50 FV).

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #29 on: March 31, 2025, 01:57:10 pm »
FG Top 100 prospects updated (anyone with a FV of 50 or higher makes the list, so it's more than 100):

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/post-spring-training-top-100-prospects-update/

Crews #3 (60 FV)
Susana #22 (55 FV)
Sykora #108 (50 FV)

Previous:  Crews #3 (60 FV), Susana #19 (55 FV), and Sykora #84 (50 FV).

I'm not a big fan of prospect rankings, but it is concerning how few bats are currently in the system after all the years of losing.

Offline imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #30 on: March 31, 2025, 02:35:27 pm »
I'm not a big fan of prospect rankings, but it is concerning how few bats are currently in the system after all the years of losing.
Hassell and House are the other big bats in the system, but are both outside of the FG top 100

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #31 on: March 31, 2025, 02:49:10 pm »
King will be on the list by midseason

Offline welch

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #32 on: April 08, 2025, 09:13:20 pm »
Where is Cade Cavalli? Has he been assigned to a team?

Offline imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #33 on: April 08, 2025, 11:23:57 pm »
Where is Cade Cavalli? Has he been assigned to a team?
15 day IL on 3/24

He'll be in extended spring training for a while.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #34 on: April 15, 2025, 05:18:28 pm »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-20-prospects-washington-nationals/
this isn't a 2025 ranking. It's actually a 2017 ranking of prospects in Fangraphs. It came up in an article on Eric Fedde's 2017 scouting report  when he was the 3rd ranked prospect in the Nats system, with Robles the clear #1 (60) and nestled between Soto (50) and LGJr at a 45.

Only 20 prospects on that list. :shock: IDK if they did not list 35+ as the bottom prospect is a 40. Overall, that list had a pretty high success rate, as Robles, Soto, Fedde, Luis Garcia Jr. (#4), Jesus Luzardo, Pedro Severino, Austin Voth, and Brian Goodwin all had multiple year careers, and guys like Carter Kieboom, Sheldon Neuse, Koda Glover, AJ Cole, and Andrew Stevenson had their chances in the majors. Stevenson even has a WS ring from 2019. Off the list but mentioned is Jakson Reetz, who is still kicking around the MLB fringe.

A telling observation on that list:
Quote
This system retained its best prospect despite the winter purge but is now severely depleted. The front office may be confronted with some difficult decisions this summer as they weigh their still-open competitive window with the club’s long-term future. Among signs of hope is the resurgence of a Latin American talent pipeline that was literally left for dead at one point and has now provided the system with three of its better prospects. Washington’s aggressive style of drafting has netted them injured arms who would have otherwise been selected much higher, and they’ve had success easing those pitchers back from time off. They’ll likely add another 45 FV talent to this list with their first-round pick in June, though the system is likely to take a hit ahead of the deadline as Washington chases a ring.

FWIW, with 20 prospect grade 40 or better, that compares to 2024 with 24 40s or better.

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #35 on: April 16, 2025, 06:00:12 pm »
King will be on the list by midseason

He will not.

House is hanging in there, but does not look like an 800+ OPS MLB hitter.  After him, there's next to nothing.  Team couldn't draft or develop talent, so it's going to be cross your fingers with rentals until they get serious about longer term contracts.

Offline imref

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Offline imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #37 on: May 06, 2025, 02:10:37 pm »
Todd Boss looks at our top prospects a month into the minor league season:

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18922

Offline imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #38 on: June 13, 2025, 06:37:12 am »
Todd Boss posted an update of the BBA top 30:
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=19009

Offline GataNats

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #39 on: June 13, 2025, 02:47:41 pm »
How in the world is Susanna ranked over House.   Even Sykora over house is a stretch

Online IanRubbish

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #40 on: June 13, 2025, 05:18:34 pm »
How in the world is Susanna ranked over House.   Even Sykora over house is a stretch

Also wouldn't put wild child Alex Clemmey over Luke Dickerson. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #41 on: June 20, 2025, 08:51:47 am »
This is a longish read, and kind of arrives at an obvious point that even for highly-rated pitching prospects, you really don't know what you are likely to get until after they've pitched a year or two in the majors.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-quickly-should-you-change-your-mind-about-elite-pitching-prospects/

Interesting that Gore is sort of an outlier as a slow build up to what now looks like maybe a 4+ fWAR season.

Why I'm putting this in the Farm / prospect list area is mostly Susana and what we anticipate for Sykora. I would expect Sykora to be top 50 next year, and Susana had cracked at least one top 50 before his injury. Reinforces "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect" (TINSTAAPP), and also that the only way around TINSTAAPP is to have multiple guys and to bump the ones who actually perform. Mitchell Parker is mentioned too as an example of a non-elite guy who has a very good debut.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #42 on: July 07, 2025, 10:46:12 am »
Fangraphs finally has their 2025 prospects report for the Washington Nationals:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-39-prospects/

39 players in the system with at least a 35+ FV grade (Elijah Green is notably not one of them), plus a decent collection of other prospects of note.

There's a longer summary in the article at the bottom but here's an interesting highlight:

Quote
This system remains shy of average in most respects, but is definitely better than it was a year ago. There are some signs of life as it pertains to developing pitching. Last year’s Nationals list had a league-low 12 pitchers on it. This year, despite losing some pitchers to graduation (Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz) in 2024, there are 18, including a couple of guys who are “arrow up” types within a year of being drafted. It’s a positive sign for an org that needs to manufacture pitching from within if the team is going to compete with the Mets, Braves and Phillies, who all enjoy some combination of financial and developmental might.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #43 on: July 07, 2025, 10:48:20 am »
With the caveat that the Marlins and Astros prospect reports have not been completed yet, and it still includes Dylan Crews, this puts the Nationals farm system as 14th in MLB in Fangraphs' estimation and 2nd in the NL East behind only the Mets (ranked 7th).

Offline Slateman

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #44 on: July 07, 2025, 11:15:45 am »
Susana feels overrated. Dude cannot throw strikes.

Offline imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #45 on: July 07, 2025, 11:20:09 am »
4 of the top 10 should graduate pretty soon (Crews, Lile, House, Henry), a fifth is Cavalli.

Interesting to see Yoel Tejada Jr. at 14, he isn't even on Callis' top-30 yet.

he has YoYo way way down the list compared to others.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #46 on: July 10, 2025, 08:04:19 am »
Fangraphs has published their Marlins 2025 farm system report. They slot in at 13th overall, bumping the Nats down to 15th and 3rd in the NL East. It does look like the Marlins' farm system value is almost entirely derived from being ridiculously deep rather than being buoyed by a few blue chip prospects, so I don't think I'd actually prefer their system to ours. Having a zillion 40/35+ FV prospects is nice, but I'd still prefer to have a couple of 55 or 60 FV prospects instead.

Offline imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #47 on: July 17, 2025, 05:38:15 pm »
ESPN's new top-10:

RANK   NAME   POSITION   PREVIOUS RANK
1.   Travis Sykora   RHP   4
2.   Eli Willits           SS   2025 draft
3.   Brady House   3B   2
4.   Jarlin Susana   RHP   1
5.   Luke Dickerson   SS   3
6.   Seaver King   SS   5
7.   Cade Cavalli   RHP   6
8.   Daylen Lile   LF   7
9.   Caleb Lomavita   C   8
10.   Ethan Petry   1B   2025 draft

Offline imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #48 on: July 22, 2025, 08:55:26 am »
BBA's top 35: (Willits is likely to slot in as a top-25 overall prospect, BBA really likes him).

Rank   First Name   Last Name   Position
1   Eli   Willits   SS
2   Travis   Sykora   RHP (Starter)
3   Jarlin   Susana   RHP (Starter)
4   Brady   House   SS/3B
5   Alex   Clemmey   LHP (Starter)
6   Luke   Dickerson   SS/CF
7   Daylen   Lile   OF (CF)
8   Ethan   Petry   1B/OF
9   Coy   James   SS
10   Cade   Cavalli   RHP (Starter)
11   Seaver   King   SS
12   Caleb   Lomavita   C
13   Landon   Harmon   RHP
14   Robert   Hassell III   OF (CF)
15   Jake   Bennett   LHP (Starter)
16   Yohandy   Morales   3B
17   Angel   Feliz   3B/SS
18   Tyler   Stuart   RHP (Starter)
19   Miguel   Sime Jr.   RHP
20   Brayan   Cortesia   SS
21   Jackson   Kent   LHP (Starter)
22   Daniel   Hernandez   C
23   Andry   Lara   RHP (Starter)
24   Yoel   Tejada Jr.   RHP (Starter)
25   Garcia   Davian   RHP (Starter)
26   Riley         Cornelio   RHP (Starter)
27   Jorgelys   Mota   SS
28   Kevin   Bazzell   C/3B
29   Sam   Peterson   OF (CF)
30   Sir Jamison   Jones   CA
31   Cayden   Wallace   2B/3B
32   Andrew   Pinckney   OF (Corner)
33   Elijah   Green   OF (CF)
34   Cristian   Vaquero   OF (CF)
35   Robert   Cranz   RHP (Reliever)

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2025
« Reply #49 on: July 22, 2025, 09:46:06 am »
Seaver King being 11 is really sad.